Did the Thursday Arrests across Europe Set the Paris Attacks in Motion?

[alcibiades_mystery]

In a little reported news item (here in the US at least), a number of ISIS-connected suspected terrorists were rounded up Italy, Norway, and England on Thursday.

http://news.yahoo.com/italy-issues-17-arrest-warrants-terrorism-blitz-092602157.html

Notably, the Italian authorities thought the group was seeking to procure weapons in Holland.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/12/suspects-detained-across-europe-in-anti-terror-operation

Did the round-up of this group set the Friday attacks in motion? Were the Paris attackers worried that those arrested would flip?

Were these arrests linked to information authorities may have had on impending attacks in France, or elsewhere?

[MohRokTah]

1. I doubt it.

Too coordinated to be a last minute deal.

[alcibiades_mystery]

3. I'm not suggesting it was last minute: quite the opposite in fact

It was a long planned operation that had to be rushed into action because of these arrests.

Indeed, this may account for the poor execution of the stadium attacks, which were at the very least botched rather miserably.

[blogslut]

8. From what I've heard

The stadium attacks were designed to draw first responders there so that the other attacks could carried out.

[alcibiades_mystery]

12. The design was to kill as many people as possible

whatever the ancillary benefit of multiple attacks. For the stadium attacks, that did not happen. They were botched. They served the purpose of sowing chaos, to be sure, but they failed otherwise, killing only the three bombers and one innocent civilian.

[Cracklin Charlie]

9. I get what you're saying...

They had to speed up the operation, because their fellow attackers were getting rounded up in the other areas where they had planned attacks. They had to strike before they got arrested, as well.

[alcibiades_mystery]

10. Indeed...and once we don't immediately assume that the attack was "perfect"

we see the real terror: that most of it was in fact botched, and that they probably meant to kill many, many more.

A team of eight in the theater, and you don't have hundreds streaming out through back doors.

[hobbit709]

2. The attacks didn't look like a spur of the moment thing

I'd say they were planned out some time ago and just happened coincidentally.

[alcibiades_mystery]

4. Again, not saying spur of the moment

I'm saying they were long planned but rushed into execution.

the stadium attack was a terrible failure, in any case.

[hobbit709]

6. A plan may go all to hell because ONE thing goes awry.

The more complicated the plan, the more chance Murphy steps in.

[muriel_volestrangler]

18. The attempt on the stadium couldn't have been made on just any night

International matches aren't common.

Also, the arrests were not in France or Belgium, the countries this attack has come from.

[dorkzilla]

5. Like others have already said, it was far too sophisticated and perfectly coordinated

However, I think that it may have been FAR WORSE if those arrests weren’t made. Like the guy they caught in Germany last week with a car full of weapons? Yeah, imagine if they hadn’t stopped this guy.

[hifiguy]

7. I agree.

This was a big operation and there had to be some reasonably sophisticated logistics behind it. It was very thoroughly planned.

[alcibiades_mystery]

11. Yes, of course...As I noted numerous times in this thread

It was sophisticated and well-planned. That doesn't exclude the possibility that it was rushed as a result of the arrests.

Moreover, I think we need to consider that it was not perfect. The stadium attacks were pretty much botched, for instance. The theater attack could have been far, far worse, as we know from similar attacks in Russia.

[Recursion]

15. The disrupted plot was against Scandinavian diplomats

Though I could see this as a fallback plan they had been developing in the wings.

[HereSince1628]

19. What characterizes the attacks as sophisticated?

Sophisticated as a word suggests some sort of elevated knowledge, education or training, it can also mean having a complex design.

I'd sort of like to hear opinions on why people should believe the Paris attacks were 'far too sophisticated' to be considered rather typical terror operations.

[moondust]

13. The ISIS claim of responsibility

apparently said the Paris attack was because of France's bombing of ISIS. It may be relevant that eight days before the Paris attack France announced it would be sending its largest nuclear aircraft carrier, the Charles de Gaulle, back into the fight against ISIS.

[Recursion]

14. That seems like a separate plot that got interrupted. Though this could be a plan B

If they're sophisticated enough to attempt a kidnapping of a Norwegian diplomat (which they seem to have been) I could easily see them having a contingency plan if one of the cells got disrupted.

[WhaTHellsgoingonhere]

16. It's a war. What provocation do they need?

[alcibiades_mystery]

17. Who knows

In real life, real people press "Go" on stuff like this at specific times for real reasons, though.

Perhaps understanding those reasons is uninteresting. Or perhaps not.

[DFW]

20. The attacks were almost certainly carried out according to a schedule long planned

The concert, the match where Hollande was going to attend, AND--even Muslims know that western countries harbor a certain superstition about Friday the 13th. Just like Bin Laden knew perfectly well what "911" meant in the USA.

The execution may not have been flawless, but I'd bet the schedule was in place long ago.