Trouble for the GOP, mock election result show HUGE sanders win.

[MynameisBlarney]

http://crooksandliars.com/2015/11/trouble-gop-incredibly-accurate-mock

[LonePirate]

1. Looking at the states in their map suggests this model is headed to a bad year.

I have no doubt the Dem candidate will win, whoever it is; but there are several states on their map which are not going to be the won by the party they predict.

[MynameisBlarney]

3. We shall see.

Whether by models or polls, it's far too early to tell.

[LonePirate]

4. There is no way IL and MD are red if SC and TN are blue

Last edited Tue Nov 10, 2015, 03:20 PM - Edit history (1)

That scenario is impossible in our current political climate. The model is flawed for those states at a minimum.

[MynameisBlarney]

11. It's probably got other flaws

like any other model.

[LonePirate]

15. Agreed. This model and others have flaws. Yet this one is touted for its accuracy.

It's a stretch to believe the model is accurate when comprised off questionable sub-data.

[Jim Lane]

17. I agree, and I add that it shows the Libertarian candidate getting 10% of the vote.

In 2012, Gary Johnson got about 1% on the Libertarian line.

If, as the model predicts, Bush is the Republican nominee, then that will help the Libertarian vote, because some Republicans who see Bush as a RINO will refuse to vote for him. Still, I can't see the Libertarian vote going up by 900% over 2012.

[trumad]

2. Should be in GD-P

[MynameisBlarney]

13. How do I change it?

I've never had to do that before.

[B Calm]

5. Great news, it's Bernie or Hillary for me!

[MynameisBlarney]

8. Same here.

[Wounded Bear]

6. Not sure I can see Bernie beating Hillary right now, but...

if there isn't a Dem landslide in '16, we're all screwed worse than ever.

[ChisolmTrailDem]

7. This OP does not belong in GD. Please move it to GD-P. Thank you. nt

[MynameisBlarney]

10. My bad...

I assumed since this was about the general election and not the primaries, it would be ok.

[ChisolmTrailDem]

12. It's certainly close to being OK for GD, but it has Sanders winning, which will undoubtably...

...kick off the kind of childishness that goes on in GD-P. And it's that bickering that pushes it over the edge to GD-P material. If I'm not mistaken, the rules allow for a more peaceful and less petulant GD.

I'm not a boss here, so it's your choice. I just wanted to state my position and meant nothing personal toward you.

[MynameisBlarney]

14. No worries.

It's all good.

[Jim Lane]

16. I think GD is correct.

GD-P is exclusively for posts about the Democratic presidential nomination race. Everything else -- Republican nomination races, Democratic primaries for downticket offices, and general election -- goes in GD.

This mock election covers the Democratic presidential nomination race, Republican presidential nomination race, and the general election. Given that it's not exclusively about the GD-P topic, GD seems appropriate.

[MynameisBlarney]

19. Thanks, Jim

[ananda]

9. :like:

[Octafish]

18. Imagine the coat tails!

Lots of Liberals and Progressives would be going to Wahington.