Since Presidential approval often impacts elections, what will Obama's aproval be in one year?

[Quixote1818]

With unemployment down to 5% and I am guessing it will be in the mid 4's in a year where will his approval be?

Guesses?


Here are two models that predict different outcomes:

http://money.cnn.com/2015/08/06/news/economy/2016-democratic-victory-moodys-analystics/

http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2015/10/14/forget-what-you-saw-last-night-two-simple-reasons-a-republican-is-likely-to-win-in-2016/


I think the first model is a much better model and the betting odds seem to agree with the first model. Betting odds are usually very accurate when it comes to elections.

[former9thward]

1. Elections are decided by the middle class.

The poor don't vote and there are not that many very rich. The middle class knows the 5% number is phony. It was generated by a labor participation rate of 62%. When you stop counting the unemployed it is easy to make the unemployment rate anything you want to make it. I think his approval will be in the 40-45% range.

[SickOfTheOnePct]

2. I'm not going to guess what his approval ratings will be

but I agree 100% with your assessment of the unemployment rate.

[Quixote1818]

4. Found this chart. Interesting how the U-6 rate was hit worse than the official rate in 2008

and has lagged ever since then:

[eridani]

3. Depends on what is happening in the economy at the time.

Let's hope that things don't get too fucked up.