If Isis did target Russian plane, what does it mean for 'war on terror'?

[smirkymonkey]

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/05/if-isis-did-bring-down-russian-plane-what-does-it-mean-for-the-war-on-terror

"If Islamic State did bring down a packed passenger jet over the Sinai desert, as many US and UK officials believe is a “significant possibility”, then the act would mark a significant escalation of the group’s capabilities and strategic aims, but also underline its continuing regional – rather than global – focus.

One of the key differences between Isis and al-Qaida is that the former has focused its energies almost exclusively on seizing and holding territory. Al-Qaida, the veteran terrorist organisation from which Isis broke away, still, theoretically at least, prioritises spectacular strikes on targets in the west.

Al-Qaida has a long track record of targeting planes. This goes back to 1995 and a plot to bring down half a dozen airliners over the Pacific. Then came the 9/11 attacks, a 2002 attempt to bring down an Israeli airliner with a surface to air missile, a hugely ambitious plot in 2006 targeting transatlantic planes, and several more recent attempts by the Yemen-based affiliate, al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula, to strike at western air traffic.

Isis has avoided such operations. One reason is that social media and digital technologies mean it no longer needs a spectacular attack killing large numbers of westerners to gain publicity, as was the case when professional news editors or repressive states decided what was broadcast and what was not."...more

[restorefreedom]

1. i am so glad someone asked this question

it means obama will for sure ramp up the "boots on the ground but its not really combat" bullshit they are trying to pull. we will end up in a significant role in syria. hopefully, it won't get too bad before Obama leaves office. But if Hillary or one of the guys running on the Republican ticket is president, expect full on war with Syria, regime change, the usual PNAC crap. Our only hope to avoid a full-scale war is if Bernie or O'Malley becomes the next president.

[smirkymonkey]

2. I am wondering how Putin will react.

Will he become more aggressive in Syria or pull back?

[restorefreedom]

3. i have been wondering about that

it's interesting that the UK, definitely not a hawkish country, was the first one to come out and say they thought it was a bomb. And Russia and Egypt seem to be very reluctant to say that this was a bomb.for all of his bluster, I'm not sure that Putin wants to get into a full out war in Syria. He certainly has the ability to, but it would mean heavy losses and he would be complicating an already complicated situation. if it does turn out to be a bomb, The smartest thing he could do is go to the UN and try to get some global support, although I don't know what action they could take that's non-military. Maybe something economic, freezing assets, something.

[smirkymonkey]

4. It's funny, I thought that too. I'm no forensics expert, but I thought it was strange that Egypt

and Russia were still waffling over whether it was a bomb or not. Wouldn't it be fairly easy to tell just from a preliminary examination of the wreckage?

[restorefreedom]

5. egypts position is understandable imo

they're not gonna want to be associated with this tragedy, and they are not gonna want to lose the business if their airport is never visited due to airlines rerouting the traffic. As to Russia, I'm not sure what's going on with them. my guess is this will just show that they bit off a little bit more than they could chew and they will be forced to either go head on into Syria, or withdraw and look like they are caving to Isis, neither of which is a very attractive option. I hope they take the middle way and go to the UN.

[Lee-Lee]

6. Egypts economy depends highly on tourism

If this is shown to be terrorism and because Egyptian security failed it will strike a hard blow on the tourism sector that is still recovering from the unrest and coups a few years ago.

Egypt doesn't want that.

But I wonder if ISIS isn't looking at this as a start to destabilizing Egypt by crushing tourism there... Add a few bombings at resorts and Egypts main source of foreign cash coming into the country is gone.

And who is best served by middle eastern nations destabilizing?

[Turbineguy]

7. It would indicate that ISIS view of the World is

"You can't have too many enemies!"

[Mika]

8. The BFEE uses plane "accidents"/hijackings/bombings/shootdowns/etc as SOP for their agenda. eom