Hurricane JOAQUIN Forecast Discussion

[Baclava]

Last edited Wed Sep 30, 2015, 12:53 PM - Edit history (1)

That track is the best guess they have so far, it surely will change, stay tuned

[liberal N proud]

1. Figures - went to the OBX in May - Tropical Storm

Going again next week and what do we have - Tropical Storm

Weather is usually beautiful after though as long as the damage is not great. The one in May did no damage.

[Baclava]

2. Could be a Cat 2 hurricane by the weekend, east coast landfall still possible

[Amishman]

39. that spaghetti model is from Wed morning, there is even less consensus now

this is the model spread as of this morning (Thursday). The 120 hour positions are spread from TN to MA to even Bermuda.

[Baclava]

40. Right, model tracks change as new data comes in, but they usually get more in agreement, not less

it's the batttle of the computer models - the European model wants to send this out to sea

[Nay]

3. Great. Just what we need in VA -- more rain. All the trees will be falling over from soggy

roots.

[Oilwellian]

15. We had a big one fall the other day

We live on 3 acres under a canopy of great oaks. They're massive and many are next to our home.

[OnlinePoker]

4. With the waning moon the tide should decrease, if I'm not mistaken

This should reduce coastal flooding as it comes ashore in the north east next week.

[Baclava]

13. I wouldn't count on it

[malaise]

5. NOAA says there are not sure where this is heading

but suggest all pay attention - I suggest that Crispy Christie stays home

[Baclava]

6. yeah - the computer models are battling it out

HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2015


There is disagreement in the track guidance between the
ECMWF and the other dynamical models. The majority of the guidance
forecasts Joaquin to turn west of north after 48-72 hours, with the
storm moving inland over the mid-Atlantic states and merging with
the trough. On the other hand, the ECMWF forecast the hurricane to
move out to sea between North America and Bermuda. The ECMWF
forecasts Joaquin to move more to the south during the first 24-48
hours than the other models. In addition, it shows the hurricane
interacting with an upper-level low to its northeast that results in
a more eastward motion after 48 hours. The new forecast track,
which is similar to the previous track, leans more toward the
non-ECMWF guidance. However, out of deference to the ECMWF, it
lies to the east of the center of the guidance envelope and the
consensus models. The NOAA G-IV jet is scheduled to fly a synoptic
surveillance mission this afternoon, which, along with special
rawinsonde launches over the eastern U. S., hopefully will reduce
the spread of the guidance.

Joaquin is expected to remain in an environment of moderate
northeasterly vertical shear for the next 24-36 hours. However,
since it has been steadily strengthening in such an environment,
there is no obvious reason to think it will stop doing so. After
36 hours, the hurricane is likely to move into an area of divergent
southerly upper-level winds associated with the eastern U. S.
trough. While there is uncertainty as to how much shear should
occur, it is expected that additional intensification could occur
through 72 hours.

Based on this, the intensity forecast calls for
Joaquin to peak as a major hurricane in about 72 hours, and it is
possible it could be stronger than currently forecast.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/301458.shtml

[JCMach1]

7. Exactly, anywhere from FL to ME could be affected...

or could still end-up a fish storm.

[KittyWampus]

8. it doesn't seem that usual for hurricanes to have such a wide possible track.

but I'm not that knowledgable.

[Baclava]

12. The tracks are based on computer models - and in this case they are having a hard time agreeing

Happens a lot

[Baclava]

9. They have it sitting in the Bahamas for 3 days, then spinning on its head and racing north

Crazy

[Eleanors38]

45. Seems if the storm hangs around in the Bahamas, the random danger increases...

This apparently happened with Andrew as it stalled and pumped up over that area before jagging westward over S. Florida.

[Gloria]

10. Did you see the Chris Hayes segment with the scientiest/politician ranting about

the stupidity of people like Rubio and Bush who say it will kill jobs to do anything about climate change? The sea around Miami is up an astounding amount and it is flooding regularly in areas...and FL is sinking...

It's going to look like Venice soon .....

Frankly, if the people of FL keep electing assholes, maybe it's "GOD's WILL"...you know, that loving GOD they always talk about....

They need to GROW UP

[Baclava]

11. NYC could be underwater again - I'd be more worried about them

SOME MODELS SHOW NEW YORK CITY AREA IS IN THE POSSIBLE PATH OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN

NEW YORK (WABC) -- Weather models show very different potential paths Hurricane Joaquin could take over the next week, with several of them now showing it head directly toward the New York City area.



http://abc7ny.com/weather/tracking-joaquin-nyc-is-in-the-possible-path-of-hurricane/1007792/

[malaise]

14. New Jersey too

lots of water coming for sure

[Gloria]

19. Stay safe in Jersey and NYC.....

Used to live at the Jersey shore...remember the bulkhead in back of the house I shared with my friend on the Shark River, a block from the beach, on 1st Ave. in Belmar.....Scary if that had gone!!! It needed repairs, don't know if her parents, who owned the house, ever fixed it!! Was a $10,000 plus repair back in the mid-70's!

[Baclava]

21. You know I turned up my hurricane deflector fan in my garage - Floridians can thank me later

ayep - stay safe

[Eleanors38]

46. Fart in its general direction.

[trumad]

16. Weird how NY has become more prone for Hurricanes than Florida.

[1939]

17. High over Florida moving east.

I believe that accounts for the general model consensus that has the storm is going to make a sharp right turn and begin moving north. Where it will come ashore is still an unknown. They think anywhere from Hatteras to New England.

Some years back, the Carolinas were ground zero for hurricanes.

[Baclava]

34. Isabel - Carolinas. "How Will Joaquin Compare to Superstorm Sandy, Hurricane Isabel?"

According to Mike Smith, senior vice president and chief innovation executive of AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions, "There is going to be catastrophic flooding from North Carolina to Massachusetts, and this is going to disrupt the economy regardless of whether or not Hurricane Joaquin makes landfall."

No matter how similar the pattern may seem, no two storms are ever exactly alike. The same can be said about the situation developing this weekend along the Atlantic coast with the approach of Joaquin.



Satellite: Side-by-side photos of Sandy (left) on Oct. 28, 2012, and Isabel (right) on Sept. 18, 2003. (MODIS Rapid Response Team NASA/GSFC)

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/how-will-joaquin-compare-to-superstorm-sandy-hurricane-isabelle-east-coast-impact-new-jersey-north-carolina/52693970

[Lee-Lee]

18. They just put out a warning of 1-2 FEET of rain in my already soggy part of NC!

And I am not even in the storm track, they are saying the storm will stall a front over us.

It's already wet- this will be a disaster.

[malaise]

20. Yep - prepare for this one

Stay safe

[Baclava]

23. I'm seeing an eye

[malaise]

25. Everyone is lucky this is only going to be a Cat2

It's a very big storm.
Spare a thought for folks in the Bahamas

Damn it's going to be Cat 3

[Baclava]

26. I'm thinking about the Bahamas, they will feel it first

It's not that big of a storm, size wise, but it's spinning up quickly. Could catch some by surprise.

[malaise]

27. Just edited my above post

It is going to be a Cat3 but mostly over water.

[Baclava]

28. In the Bahamas, you mean? Looks like this thing just wants to plow west.

If I was in Miami, I'd be watching closely.

[malaise]

30. No it is forecast to turn north before strengthening to Cat 3

The Bahamas will face a Cat 2

[Baclava]

32. So they say, but when it turns makes all the difference - I wouldn't trust any of these "forecasts"

Long range, anyway

[malaise]

37. You were right - it's Cat3 now and hitting the Central

Bahamas.
Could be Cat 4 later today but will weaken before and if it hits mainland USA.
Stay safe folks.

[Baclava]

44. Weather report from the Bahamas: 'Wind from the SW @111 mph, gusts to 144 mph'

[KG]

22. ha! missed me again!

[Baclava]

24. Obviously you lead a pure life

May the gods and goddesses continue to smile upon you.

yep

[beveeheart]

29. I'm usually visiting family and friends in Ocean City,MD

and Rehoboth Beach,DE during this coming weekend. I was in Rehobeth a few years ago when Isabel passed by. Wasn't so bad there, but did do a lot of damage in Rock Hall, MD just a few miles from where I went after Rehoboth.

Stay safe, East Coasters!

[Marrah_G]

31. I hope it goes back out to sea.

I can't afford to lose power for too long.

[Baclava]

35. Root for the European model - it makes this a fish storm.

The rain will still be there though. Or so they say.

[Warpy]

33. Already a Cat. 2

NOAA is forecasting it sitting on the Bahamas for a couple of days, grazing Hatteras, and then going right up Chesapeake Bay. It'll be a tropical storm by the time it gets of DC but they can bet on a lot of flooding.

Then again, it's 5 days out, a lot is likely to change by then.

[Baclava]

36. Make that a Cat 3 now - 'Hurricane Joaquin now a Major Hurricane'

#Joaquin is a powerful Category 3 storm, but could strengthen more, forecasters say.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Joaquin is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is forecast in the next
day or so, with some fluctuations in intensity possible on Friday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km)

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/302357.shtml

[leftyladyfrommo]

38. It might hit New York?

I'll take our tornadoes any time over these hurricanes

[Baclava]

41. You would rather be sucked through your roof in the middle of the night by a storm you can't see?

Not me. You can see a cane coming for days and decide on your own to get out of the way.

and it probably won't hit NYC, although some rain could

[leftyladyfrommo]

42. I've lived here for 45 years and have never seen a tornado.

I did have one go over my house at 2 in the morning and it is a really incredible noise. And a couple have put down fairly close to me but the damage was limited. A couple or houses got hit. But tornado storms come through really fast. They hit a very limited area. Hurricanes last for hours and the devastation can be enormous.

The huge tornadoes like the one that hit Joplin are so rare. And they are terrible. But they just don't compare to what a huge hurricane can do with sustained winds of 120 miles an hour for hours and hours.

[Baclava]

43. yeah, listening to your roof flex and creak and pop for 12hrs from the wind is no fun

I've been in a few of those howling Cat 3's - anything bigger coming and I leave and come back when the power returns.

You make your own risk assessments with canes. Storm surge is not something I have to deal with. A tornado that sweeps your home off down to the slab is not something I would want to be around.

but back to the topic, until it turns north, it's really all just a guess

let's hope it goes to swim with the fishes

[KittyWampus]

47. Category 4

[Baclava]

48. Euro model wins!....out to sea he goes, NW turn has begun