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onehandle

(51,122 posts)
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 09:39 AM Sep 2015

Self-driving cars can be fooled by fake signals

You'd think that self-driving cars would be most vulnerable to remote hacks, but the biggest danger may come from someone nearby with a handful of cheap electronics. Security researcher Jonathan Petit has determined that you can fool LIDAR (the laser ranging common on autonomous vehicles) by sending "echoes" of fake cars and other objects through laser pulses. All you need is a low-power laser, a basic computing device (an Arduino kit or Raspberry Pi is enough) and the right timing -- you don't even need good aim. Petit managed to spoof objects from as far as 330 feet away in his proof-of-concept attack, and he notes that it's possible to present multiple copies of these imaginary objects or make them move. In other words, it'd only take one prankster to make a self-driving car swerve or stop to avoid a non-existent threat.

There's no guarantee that this will be a major issue if and when self-driving cars become commonplace. Petit's technique only works so long as LIDAR units' pulses aren't encrypted or otherwise obscured. While that's true of many commercial systems at the moment, it's possible that production-ready vehicles will lock things down. Still, this is a not-so-friendly reminder that car makers have a lot of work ahead of them if they're going to secure their robotic rides.

http://www.engadget.com/2015/09/05/self-driving-car-lidar-exploit

Just one reason those 'magic' self-driving Google cars are nothing more than PR.

They work, but it'll be generations before they are widely trusted and used.

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Self-driving cars can be fooled by fake signals (Original Post) onehandle Sep 2015 OP
Millions of miles. Zero at fault accidents. Apple fanbois fool no-one. whatthehey Sep 2015 #1
Accidents will happen and just imagine the liability lawsuits. TexasMommaWithAHat Sep 2015 #10
If you are the one who owns the car and puts it on the road dragonlady Sep 2015 #25
But the point is that they will sue the deep pockets TexasMommaWithAHat Sep 2015 #27
And will be factored into the cost of the cars. n/t PoliticAverse Sep 2015 #29
Cars have defects now. Airbag/Brake issues. Large lawsuits. But car companies manage to survive! nt Logical Sep 2015 #31
Lawsuits from the first autonomous car wrecks will be a mess Lee-Lee Sep 2015 #57
+1 Egnever Sep 2015 #72
A jerk with a laser pointer would find similar flaws in Humans Exultant Democracy Sep 2015 #2
And I wouldn't call someone like that a 'prankster', someone pointing a laser at an aircraft PoliticAverse Sep 2015 #4
It's amazing it hasn't happened yet KamaAina Sep 2015 #95
They're not just 'pr' , not 'magic', and all major manufacturers are working on them. PoliticAverse Sep 2015 #3
autonomy is happening. New cars in the high and mid range already include a lot of Warren Stupidity Sep 2015 #5
They're not 'autonomous.' That's a myth. onehandle Sep 2015 #6
Yes people will insist that they are in charge Warren Stupidity Sep 2015 #17
By 2025 they will be on the streets. Wow, you seem short sighted. nt Logical Sep 2015 #36
True or not, Freepers use this technology to argue against passenger rail. HappyPlace Sep 2015 #68
+1,000,000 Ron Green Sep 2015 #90
In all the discussion Americans STILL can't get over their asinine obsession with driving cars KittyWampus Sep 2015 #7
I'm with you. Put all of this cash and research into public transportation. nt onehandle Sep 2015 #8
The only think that's holding back public transportation in the US is the inability PoliticAverse Sep 2015 #9
And urban sprawl. And the heat. And the sheer size of our country. TexasMommaWithAHat Sep 2015 #14
Yep. Sprawl is a huge problem. Lizzie Poppet Sep 2015 #20
I would imagine that autonomous cars would fill in for taxis and similar services... Humanist_Activist Sep 2015 #19
And for people owning cars. KamaAina Sep 2015 #96
No more maintenance cost or license fees. Sounds good to me. N/t Humanist_Activist Sep 2015 #97
I don't want to take a bus to work. But an automated taxi can take me. It is going to happen. nt Logical Sep 2015 #34
The main problem with public transportation MindPilot Sep 2015 #15
We're going to have a problem then. Chan790 Sep 2015 #74
As people age, self driving cars are going to be a wonderful mode of transportation yeoman6987 Sep 2015 #78
LIDAR? rockodman Sep 2015 #11
Ahh, but the i-car will be perfect, right? (Just be careful of the maps app + gps). n/t X_Digger Sep 2015 #12
Yes, but only a GeniusŪ will be able to open the hood n/t IDemo Sep 2015 #16
Not perfect, just better than humans, its not hard, they don't get tired... Humanist_Activist Sep 2015 #21
if it breaks down treestar Sep 2015 #69
Option + Control + Start button while turning the key? ;) n/t X_Digger Sep 2015 #70
The development of hover technology is seriouly lagging; 10/21/2015 is just around the corner! MindPilot Sep 2015 #13
They're already using autonomous haulers in the mining industry... PoliticAverse Sep 2015 #24
Right. My employer makes parts for those trucks. n/t MindPilot Sep 2015 #38
why can't we have mass public transportation on rails on ground or up high? Sunlei Sep 2015 #18
I quite like the light rail system here. Lizzie Poppet Sep 2015 #22
Too much new infrastructure would more or less destroy the practicality of that. Humanist_Activist Sep 2015 #23
Where I live most of the roads are unpaved. longship Sep 2015 #26
Really? Never? So you don't think they will ever figure out unpaved roads? Sounds like the people... Logical Sep 2015 #30
Well, a snow covered unpaved road is pretty much the metric. longship Sep 2015 #37
Using GPS they could probably navigate them better than humans. drm604 Sep 2015 #43
Sorry! GPS is cool, but not magic. longship Sep 2015 #47
Sorry! But I never claimed it was magic. drm604 Sep 2015 #56
Satellite reception is dodgy during snow squalls. longship Sep 2015 #58
LOL, bookmarked. Cracks me up how people thought flying would never happen. nt Logical Sep 2015 #46
Yup. Agschmid Sep 2015 #51
I discovered this recently reading an anthology of E.A. Poe. Chan790 Sep 2015 #77
Yes you live where the conditions are hardest for the autonomous cars. Snow covered roads PoliticAverse Sep 2015 #32
Self-driving cars would likely be better than human drivers in adverse conditions. MindPilot Sep 2015 #42
Grass Lake Road west of Hawkins, MI! longship Sep 2015 #45
New tecchnologies alway have their naysayers. MindPilot Sep 2015 #53
Well, let's see an autonomous car drive all of I-80 in the winter. longship Sep 2015 #55
So this particular technology doesn't yet solve your particular problem, MindPilot Sep 2015 #59
Now that is a huge straw man. longship Sep 2015 #60
The issue is you are claiming its NEVER going to happen, planes were only able to fly... Humanist_Activist Sep 2015 #62
Again, a straw man argument. longship Sep 2015 #65
Your misuse of the term strawman is annoying, its not a strawman to point out that... Humanist_Activist Sep 2015 #75
My position on autonomous vehicles is pretty clear. longship Sep 2015 #80
What infrastructure changes or improvements would be required? Humanist_Activist Sep 2015 #92
"Who would buy a vehicle that is only useful during warm weather?" PoliticAverse Sep 2015 #76
Sorry but the impassible road in impossible conditions is your straw man, not mine. MindPilot Sep 2015 #63
How well do humans do in the "worst conditions"? metalbot Sep 2015 #85
Well yes! longship Sep 2015 #87
It'll be doable within 5 years for an autonomous car. Chan790 Sep 2015 #79
Shit! We don't even have broadband Internet here yet! longship Sep 2015 #82
I think if they don't place RFID... Chan790 Sep 2015 #84
It's 2015 but passenger jets can be defeated by a couple of geese... PoliticAverse Sep 2015 #89
Well played, my friend. longship Sep 2015 #91
Already done 10 years ago Egnever Sep 2015 #61
Longship, you complained when I posted "The Revolution Will Not Be Formalized" bananas Sep 2015 #93
Interesting. Thx. longship Sep 2015 #94
"They work, but it'll be generations before they are widely trusted and used." Bullshit...... Logical Sep 2015 #28
Then again I was promised a flying car by now. n/t PoliticAverse Sep 2015 #33
Well, no one really worked on one as hard as like google is the car. And the cost..... Logical Sep 2015 #35
To say nothing of the reality... Chan790 Sep 2015 #81
Good points. nt Logical Sep 2015 #83
I challenge Google to attempt to navigate I-80 in the winter. longship Sep 2015 #41
People used to control elevators also. Technology happens. nt Logical Sep 2015 #44
Elevators. Probably the safest mode of transportation ever. longship Sep 2015 #48
Its radar, not GPS and history is full of sentences exactly like that one. Cracks me up. nt Logical Sep 2015 #49
Again, winter is the problem. longship Sep 2015 #54
You do not understand advancement in technology. But that is OK, it will happen without you. You.... Logical Sep 2015 #64
You really like those straw men. longship Sep 2015 #66
Wow, bookmarked. nt Logical Sep 2015 #67
I will try one more time to reason with you. longship Sep 2015 #71
And general AI has been 10 years away for the past 50 years Chathamization Sep 2015 #88
The problems will be less technical than legal/regulatory. nt lumberjack_jeff Sep 2015 #73
I'm sure these cars will have to come with a manual override. sakabatou Sep 2015 #39
Actually... Chan790 Sep 2015 #98
In related news fake signals can confuse human drivers too. Statistical Sep 2015 #40
+1000 nt Logical Sep 2015 #50
Problems, problems, problems. Are there any solutions? nt ladjf Sep 2015 #52
I think Google is doing great research goldent Sep 2015 #86
Am I the only one here with zero interest in self-driving cars? Throd Sep 2015 #99
It's seems pretty clear lots of people like to drive however, PoliticAverse Sep 2015 #100

TexasMommaWithAHat

(3,212 posts)
10. Accidents will happen and just imagine the liability lawsuits.
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 10:24 AM
Sep 2015

That's probably problem number one.

If I hit your car, you sue me.

If my self driving car hits you, you sue the manufacturer.

dragonlady

(3,577 posts)
25. If you are the one who owns the car and puts it on the road
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 11:18 AM
Sep 2015

they will sue you as well. No question about that.

TexasMommaWithAHat

(3,212 posts)
27. But the point is that they will sue the deep pockets
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 11:42 AM
Sep 2015

And this is going to factor into getting these self driven cars on the road.

 

Lee-Lee

(6,324 posts)
57. Lawsuits from the first autonomous car wrecks will be a mess
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 03:37 PM
Sep 2015

Can you imagine the discovery process going deep into the code used to control the car, the liability issues between manufacturers, code writers, testers, etc. The legal mess of the expert testimony.

All that stuff has been pretty well fleshed out with today's cars and now virtually no accident lawsuits involve the car makers unless they can alledge bad design was a contributing factor.

But with self driving cars the car maker will be a defendant every single time because they wrote the code that controlled it- in fact even the car owner could have standing to sue the maker in every single accident case if the car was self-driving.

I think it will take a major change in U.S. law giving the automakers immunity from such lawsuits before we see them out in consumer use.

Exultant Democracy

(6,594 posts)
2. A jerk with a laser pointer would find similar flaws in Humans
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 09:51 AM
Sep 2015

At least the robot cars fail safe. Distract a human with high powers pulsing lights and you might even end up with a body count.

PoliticAverse

(26,366 posts)
4. And I wouldn't call someone like that a 'prankster', someone pointing a laser at an aircraft
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 09:53 AM
Sep 2015

for example, is committing a felony.

 

KamaAina

(78,249 posts)
95. It's amazing it hasn't happened yet
Tue Sep 8, 2015, 03:52 PM
Sep 2015

A whole bunch of jokers seem to think it's hilarious to shine laser pointers into airliner cockpits overhead.

 

Warren Stupidity

(48,181 posts)
5. autonomy is happening. New cars in the high and mid range already include a lot of
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 09:55 AM
Sep 2015

autonomous features, and the reality is that within a few years, much sooner than most people realize, human drivers will be about as useful as a kid with a toy steering wheel.

As to the safety issues - sure they exist. However there is simply no comparison with the safety issues with human drivers. The robots win hands down.

onehandle

(51,122 posts)
6. They're not 'autonomous.' That's a myth.
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 09:58 AM
Sep 2015

They are constantly monitored and corrected by humans. It's like a kid lining up a toy train that has derailed.

They are nowhere near 'autonomous.'

 

HappyPlace

(568 posts)
68. True or not, Freepers use this technology to argue against passenger rail.
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 05:39 PM
Sep 2015

Not you, of course, but it needs to be kept in mind.
There's a LOT of pushback against High Speed Rail and against light rail and other public transit.

And a lot of opponents say that Uber and Google cars and V2V technology will save the day, and that V2V technology in particular will triple the capacity of highways because we'll all be driving in "car trains".

Well, it's just not so, V2V only increases density where traffic is light and moving, by decreasing inter-vehicular distance.

A lot of cars have collision avoidance, I don't know how long before a significant number are autonomous for braking and steering, but there will be glitches and a growing number of people cannot afford a new vehicle.

I'm all for just killing the auto era altogether where possible, and millenials are looking for a world without cars, too.

that's all, rant off!

 

KittyWampus

(55,894 posts)
7. In all the discussion Americans STILL can't get over their asinine obsession with driving cars
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 10:08 AM
Sep 2015

Public transportation that is funded properly is best for society with cars filling in the gaps.

If we had adequate public transportation, there would be much less traffic, traffic accidents, need for self-driving cars.

Note- I said LESS and not non-existant.

PoliticAverse

(26,366 posts)
9. The only think that's holding back public transportation in the US is the inability
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 10:18 AM
Sep 2015

to get some people to pay for other people's transportation.

 

Lizzie Poppet

(10,164 posts)
20. Yep. Sprawl is a huge problem.
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 11:01 AM
Sep 2015

Even here in Portland, with an excellent, comprehensive bus and light rail system, there are enormous sections of the metro area in which you are only within a mile or more of a transit stop. For people who aren't that mobile (or don't want to deal with a long walk in the rain...it's the Northwest, after all), that's not going to work for the daily commute.

Personally, I don't have to use my car much on a week-to-week basis. But I live in the center of town, with a bus stop literally across the street, and only about half a mile from a light rail stop (plus I'm pretty fit and don't mind the rain). For many, the situation is different. And as I mentioned, Portland is exceptionally mass-transit-friendly for a spread-out Western city.

 

Humanist_Activist

(7,670 posts)
19. I would imagine that autonomous cars would fill in for taxis and similar services...
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 10:58 AM
Sep 2015

in a multi-modal public transportation system.

 

KamaAina

(78,249 posts)
96. And for people owning cars.
Tue Sep 8, 2015, 03:53 PM
Sep 2015

Why would you need your own car when you could just signal for Google Cab and have it take you where you're going? No more driveways or garages.

 

Logical

(22,457 posts)
34. I don't want to take a bus to work. But an automated taxi can take me. It is going to happen. nt
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 12:03 PM
Sep 2015
 

MindPilot

(12,693 posts)
15. The main problem with public transportation
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 10:46 AM
Sep 2015

is that me and it so rarely share a destination. Unless the transit system is completely removed from the roads like a subway, public transportation--usually a bus--instead of alleviating congestion, just adds to the traffic.

Its time to admit that the private automobile is mass transportation.

 

Chan790

(20,176 posts)
74. We're going to have a problem then.
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 07:18 PM
Sep 2015

Because the personal vehicle won't be around in 30-50 years. It's coming up on its end as a viable technology.

It's just not tenable anymore. People are going to have to grok onto the concept that it's just not feasible to turn their noses up at mass transit...we're all going to have to do it. Cars are killing the planet and society. Private automobiles aren't mass transit...they're not even a viable transportation technology looking forward more than a few decades.

 

yeoman6987

(14,449 posts)
78. As people age, self driving cars are going to be a wonderful mode of transportation
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 07:27 PM
Sep 2015

Thank goodness progressives with foresight are seeing the need for this. As our country ages, we will need automatic driving cars. I am thrilled with this.

 

Humanist_Activist

(7,670 posts)
21. Not perfect, just better than humans, its not hard, they don't get tired...
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 11:01 AM
Sep 2015

distracted, drunk, frustrated or angry.

If they have average driving records only a few percentage points safer than human drivers, insurance companies will start insisting that they be installed and used in cars or your premium will go through the roof, or they may refuse coverage entirely.

 

MindPilot

(12,693 posts)
13. The development of hover technology is seriouly lagging; 10/21/2015 is just around the corner!
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 10:32 AM
Sep 2015

Driverless cars is a technology that is in its infancy and needs a lot of refinement. I doubt if that will take generations. I think by the end of the decade we'll see autonomous clusters of driverless cars capable of safely moving down the freeway at well into triple digit speeds. The trucking industry will probably be on the front lines of adopting driverless technology. Imagine being able to move a load of cargo from a dock in Long Beach to a warehouse in Boston without ever needing to stop.

PoliticAverse

(26,366 posts)
24. They're already using autonomous haulers in the mining industry...
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 11:08 AM
Sep 2015


I expect the first autonomous trucks on the regular road to be part of convoys where the lead truck
is controlled by a human driver.


 

Lizzie Poppet

(10,164 posts)
22. I quite like the light rail system here.
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 11:04 AM
Sep 2015

Portland has a reasonably extensive (and growing) light rail system, and I like it quite a bit. The two-car trains are quiet and comfortable, and the fare is also good for use on the bus system. Some of the lines are quite crowded during commute hours, but when I consider how many cars that means aren't on the road, it's easier to accept.

 

Humanist_Activist

(7,670 posts)
23. Too much new infrastructure would more or less destroy the practicality of that.
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 11:04 AM
Sep 2015

Expanding public transportation, particularly high speed rail between cities, and light rail/subway systems in metro areas would be a plus. But any public transportation system will have to account for autonomous cars and trucks on the roads.

longship

(40,416 posts)
26. Where I live most of the roads are unpaved.
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 11:41 AM
Sep 2015

And in the winter are snow covered. In the warmer months are likely to be wet after a rainstorm.

How does an autonomous car manage that. Hell, even when I know where the road goes it is difficult to keep on the roadway after a big snow squall.

Autonomous cars are useless in winter anywhere and likely cannot handle unpaved roads.

 

Logical

(22,457 posts)
30. Really? Never? So you don't think they will ever figure out unpaved roads? Sounds like the people...
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 11:59 AM
Sep 2015

who have doubted technology in the past.

longship

(40,416 posts)
37. Well, a snow covered unpaved road is pretty much the metric.
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 12:27 PM
Sep 2015

I would bet my bottom dollar that no autonomous vehicle would be able to successfully navigate it. There are absolutely no visual clues as to the where the road goes.

And that is the same with every snow covered paved road as well.

The autonomous vehicle is a pipe dream.

drm604

(16,230 posts)
43. Using GPS they could probably navigate them better than humans.
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 12:54 PM
Sep 2015

Of course, that assumes that the roads have been properly mapped.

It may also be possible to use other wavelengths of light (like infrared) to see where the road is under the snow, at least better than humans can.

longship

(40,416 posts)
47. Sorry! GPS is cool, but not magic.
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 01:11 PM
Sep 2015

And, in case you remain unconvinced consider its stated accuracy, 3-4 meters. I don't think that's good enough, do you? Maybe close enough for targeting a bunker buster, but not for navigating I-80 through the Rockies in winter, let alone summer.

So the GPS argument just doesn't play. Plus, have you ever tried to access a satellite in a snow storm? Sorry, your autonomous vehicle just drove you over a cliff.



drm604

(16,230 posts)
56. Sorry! But I never claimed it was magic.
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 03:28 PM
Sep 2015

But combined with other things such as using infrared sensors, which I mentioned in my post, it can add up to being quite accurate. Overall, combined technologies, including GPS, can be more accurate than a human, which is all that is necessary.

longship

(40,416 posts)
58. Satellite reception is dodgy during snow squalls.
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 03:51 PM
Sep 2015

As anybody with satellite TV can attest.

So what are you going to do then?

Autonomous cars are a SciFi wet dream until a car can drive itself across I-80 at the height of winter.

Notice that the only places we see them is in the deserts, SoCal, NV, etc. Why would that be? Because they cannot handle bad weather!!!! Snow would fuck them up badly. To say nothing about unpaved roads, which where I live are the majority.

 

Chan790

(20,176 posts)
77. I discovered this recently reading an anthology of E.A. Poe.
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 07:23 PM
Sep 2015

There are entire short stories set in what is supposed to be the far-future...31st century and main forms of transport are balloons (more like lighter-than-air airships but functionally...balloons), trains and walking.

PoliticAverse

(26,366 posts)
32. Yes you live where the conditions are hardest for the autonomous cars. Snow covered roads
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 12:01 PM
Sep 2015

present a real challenge.

 

MindPilot

(12,693 posts)
42. Self-driving cars would likely be better than human drivers in adverse conditions.
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 12:43 PM
Sep 2015

First, the signals that detect the edges of the road could "see" through the snow. Human drivers will often panic and clamp on the brakes or over-correct the steering. The system would be able to sense a skid or loss of traction and compensate for it far faster and more accurately that a human driver.

This is a civilian application of some of the surveillance technology being developed for military drones.

longship

(40,416 posts)
45. Grass Lake Road west of Hawkins, MI!
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 12:56 PM
Sep 2015

There is no way an autonomous vehicle could navigate it in the winter. It would likely end up in the fucking lake. The only way I can navigate it is that I have driven it hundreds of times. At night!!! In Winter!!!

Try that in a Google car and I will retract my claim. Yup! It'll end up in the lake, which is only a couple feet from the road's edge. BTW, an oncoming car pushes one to the limit because the road is barely wide enough for two car widths. Thankfully, meeting another car is rare.

I stand by my claim. Autonomous vehicles wouldn't even be able to handle I-80 in the winter. And through Colorado?

Pipe dreams.

 

MindPilot

(12,693 posts)
53. New tecchnologies alway have their naysayers.
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 01:34 PM
Sep 2015

My grandfather was completely convinced that the human body couldn't survive sustained speeds over 50mph.
I had an aunt who believed that an electrical outlet spewed electricity out into the room, contaminating the air.
Remember the resistance to seat belts because people believed they would survive a crash better if they were "thrown clear"?

And not but a couple years ago right here on DU, the Tesla was roundly ridiculed as a "toy for the rich".

longship

(40,416 posts)
55. Well, let's see an autonomous car drive all of I-80 in the winter.
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 01:44 PM
Sep 2015

Then I will admit I am wrong.

Of course, the Grass Lake Road winter test is something a bit more complex. One has to know the road to navigate it, and it curves all over the damned place. And where it cuts closest to the lake (within a yard or so) the level of the road is below the level of the fucking lake. I have driven it in winter, but not in recent years. It is fucking treacherous even in good weather in summer.

Winter is my issue with autonomous vehicles. That is something that has never been attempted, let alone addressed.

So I stand by my posts.

 

MindPilot

(12,693 posts)
59. So this particular technology doesn't yet solve your particular problem,
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 04:32 PM
Sep 2015

therefore the aforementioned technology is useless and should not be developed any further.

Edison's new light bulb won't illuminate a ball park so this whole electricity thing is a SciFi fairy tale.

longship

(40,416 posts)
60. Now that is a huge straw man.
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 04:47 PM
Sep 2015

Let me make my point clear.

If one is going to argue that our roads are going to have autonomous vehicles on them one must account for the variety of conditions that they will have to safely navigate.

Autonomous vehicles can be made very safe, no doubt. However, they are only being tested in areas and conditions which are not typical. A vast proportion of the USA Interstate Highway system experiences severe winter conditions, conditions against which autonomous vehicles are never, ever tested. This is deliberate and with good reason. The technology is urgently unable to handle such conditions. So far, so good.

But the claims of autonomous vehicle advocates include increased safety on the interstates (often including long haul trucking). But interstate travel in the USA doesn't just happen in clear weather, or in summer.

So the test has to be the worst conditions, winter, something that has not happened.

What good is a technology that only works in good weather? And only in summer? How is such a technology going to be implemented? And how useful is a fair weather only system?

That's right. It isn't.

 

Humanist_Activist

(7,670 posts)
62. The issue is you are claiming its NEVER going to happen, planes were only able to fly...
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 05:01 PM
Sep 2015

in good weather when they first developed too. There's nothing, physically, that prevents autonomous vehicles from being able to navigate roads(or even off-road) in adverse weather conditions in the future. At this time, no, but you develop technology such as this in conditions where variables are more easily controlled, and then move on from there.

longship

(40,416 posts)
65. Again, a straw man argument.
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 05:16 PM
Sep 2015

My argument that autonomous vehicles are only tested in fair weather warm climates has not been addressed.

What good is an autonomous vehicle that cannot handle conditions which are prevalent over a vast area of the country's interstate highway system for a significant proportion of the year?

You keep missing the mark, my friend. A fair weather only system is useless given the expense and technology involved.

Instead, there are many technologies which help a driver be safer. Those are available now in high end cars. They should become available for everybody, like anti-lock brakes, which I can personally attest are wonderful on snow and ice covered unpaved roads, and paved roads too.

But a vehicle driving by itself? Dream on unless it is on rails, or something. Who would buy a vehicle that is only useful during warm weather?

Again! Autonomous vehicles are never tested in winter conditions, which happen to occur in a rather vast part of the country.

One should address that before one trots out yet another straw man.

Best regards.

 

Humanist_Activist

(7,670 posts)
75. Your misuse of the term strawman is annoying, its not a strawman to point out that...
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 07:19 PM
Sep 2015

your use of "dream on" is assuming they will NEVER test them in winter conditions or that technologies will never develop and mature to a point where it is feasible for autonomous cars to be able to successfully navigate the roads, paved and unpaved, during adverse weather conditions.

You take a complaint that's valid now, that these are fair weather systems, then extrapolate that because of this, they will never work in winter, or in adverse weather conditions. This is exactly what you are arguing, so its not a strawman.

10 to 15 years down the road, who is to say that such systems will have the same limitations?

longship

(40,416 posts)
80. My position on autonomous vehicles is pretty clear.
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 07:34 PM
Sep 2015

1. They are tested only in clement weather conditions. See "DARPA Grand Challenge" for results, which are increasingly improving, but sadly now ended.

2. Any practical implementation will undoubtedly require improvements to infrastructure to enable it. Such improvements are not even on the drawing board.

3. Any practical implementation will require cooperation of diverse industries who will benefit most from the technology. Good luck with the Teamsters.

4. Then, there's fucking winter, which seems to inflict a vast proportion of the USA for months and which has never, ever been an environment for an autonomous vehicle test.

So how can anybody credibly claim that this technology is the coming thing.

It may be. But not likely in my lifetime. People tend to over estimate short term advances, and under estimate long term ones. That is in our nature, I think.

I remain skeptical by looking at what data we have. And there's none that says we will have autonomous vehicles anytime soon. (I reserve that opinion to exclude rail, where the route and traffic is constrained.)

 

Humanist_Activist

(7,670 posts)
92. What infrastructure changes or improvements would be required?
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 09:20 PM
Sep 2015

You mention in your number 1 that performance is improving, something you then poo poo in your number 4. These vehicles are being designed around current infrastructure, not future tech, not embedded magnets or other expensive or impractical devices, but rather based on current road technology and standards.

I don't see what your number 3 has to do with anything, I would imagine the development of autonomous vehicles will mirror that of electric vehicles(with convergence). Competitors and cooperative ventures will both have a role to play. The Teamsters, not so much.

The issue is this, unless these computers will perform worse than humans, you don't really have an argument.

PoliticAverse

(26,366 posts)
76. "Who would buy a vehicle that is only useful during warm weather?"
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 07:22 PM
Sep 2015

Someone that lives in the extreme south of the US?

 

MindPilot

(12,693 posts)
63. Sorry but the impassible road in impossible conditions is your straw man, not mine.
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 05:05 PM
Sep 2015

You made up a nightmare scenario to discredit the implementation of a technology that is in very early stages of development. And because it won't yet operate flawlessly in your nightmare scenario, you claim the technology is useless.

Don't you think it would make sense to get it working really well in good conditions and then move on to testing in bad weather?

metalbot

(1,058 posts)
85. How well do humans do in the "worst conditions"?
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 08:25 PM
Sep 2015

The answer is "not very well".

I actually think self driving cars are going to have HUGE advantages over humans in poor conditions, in part by saying "this car should not be on the road right now, because conditions are terrible".

longship

(40,416 posts)
87. Well yes!
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 08:34 PM
Sep 2015

But now only as augmentation, as is demonstrated by high end cars. They have all sorts of tech built in. Eventually that tech will be available in Fords and Chevy, instead of Mercedes and Volvo, who seem to be leading the way.

But autonomous vehicles are a far, far reach beyond tech augmentation. One does not need infrastructure changes or clear weather for augmentation to be useful. It is an add on, not a replacement. There is quite a difference between the two.

That is my point. We may get there eventually, but I would bet that personal transportation will be a thing of the past before autonomous transportation happens.

Just my conjecture.

 

Chan790

(20,176 posts)
79. It'll be doable within 5 years for an autonomous car.
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 07:31 PM
Sep 2015

The solution is so simple as to be amusing. You just have to define the edges of the roadway with some sort of local area sensor beacon (RFID tech seems most likely) so that the car knows where the curbs are when the road is not sensible through on-board sensors...then being able to calculate the boundaries of the roadway, because it responds to conditions better than a human...the car will drive Grass Lake Road west of Hawkins, MI in a raging snowstorm at 3am better than you can do it on a sunny summer noonday.

The technology is not there yet...but we're close enough that this is not even on the list of major logistical obstacles to the deployment of autonomous cars. We know the solution...we've just not perfected the technology. That's what one calls a phase-II issue...you fix it after you prove the viability of the concept.

longship

(40,416 posts)
82. Shit! We don't even have broadband Internet here yet!
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 07:47 PM
Sep 2015

I only have DU because we recently got cell reception here. Before that, it was dialup.

So it's laughable that one would claim that Grass Lake Road would get RFID any time soon, if ever. It doesn't even have pavement, let alone two lanes. The only reason it isn't wash boarded is that there are residences there with school kids. So they grade the road during the school year and plow it in the winter for the school bus. Plus, there's the beavers dragging tree branches and leaving them across the road. And the always problem of a wash out. Did I say that the roadway is lower than the level of the lake at some points?

But yup! We're gonna have RFID any day now.

Dream on. I would settle for Internet. At least we have cell phones now.


And you think the county is going to place RFID?

 

Chan790

(20,176 posts)
84. I think if they don't place RFID...
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 08:24 PM
Sep 2015

the roadway is going to basically not exist for a major emerging technology...and that basically means tough shit for those people...they live on a road that doesn't functionally-exist and will likely come to cease to exist at-all.

Yes, I realize that answer comes down to "So...F those people" but...they're screwed. The technology doesn't have to be able to go everywhere...it needs to be able to go 97-99% of everywhere. The other 1% are people who are going to be defined by the technology passing them by. They'll be the minority still driving non-autonomous cars or they'll move or the technology will spread to their area eventually. (I do feel their pain...my town didn't even have cable until 1991. It sucked...but it wasn't an impediment to deployment of cable TV or the growth of cable providers.) If you have a self-driving car and that's your destination...you're also SOL. Things not navigable by the technology will be invisible to the technology. Sic transit gloria Mundi.

So maybe not your road but we're 5 years from a autonomous car that can navigate the Coquihalla (British Columbia Highway 5) in the dead of winter in the dead-of-night. It's considered the most dangerous wintertime highway in North America...that and not far-rural roadways will the winter-test of an autonomous technology. If a Google car can be made to regularly and safely navigate the Coq...that's a coup d'grace to the opposition.

PoliticAverse

(26,366 posts)
89. It's 2015 but passenger jets can be defeated by a couple of geese...
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 08:46 PM
Sep 2015

I suppose autonomous cars will fear beavers.

bananas

(27,509 posts)
93. Longship, you complained when I posted "The Revolution Will Not Be Formalized"
Tue Sep 8, 2015, 03:43 PM
Sep 2015

earlier this year, which was about a related subject - automated theorem proving in mathematics.

And I think the point you're trying to make about autonomous driving is similar to the point that article was making about automated theorem proving: they might work well in many circumstances, but there are also many circumstances where they just won't work at all.

You stumbled on the first paragraph because of the jargon, so I'll just quote these other three paragraphs:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1016123486

The Revolution Will Not Be Formalized
https://golem.ph.utexas.edu/category/2015/05/the_revolution_will_not_be_for.html

May 18, 2015
The Revolution Will Not Be Formalized
Posted by Mike Shulman

<snip>

What is the future of computer-verified proof? Is it the future of mathematics? Should we be happy or worried about that prospect? Does it mean that computers will take over mathematics and leave no room for the humans? My personal opinion is that (1) computer-verified proof is only going to get more common and important, but (2) it will be a long time before all mathematics is computer-verified, if indeed that ever happens, and (3) if and when it does happen, it won’t be anything to worry about.

The reason I believe (2) is that my personal experience with computer proof assistants leads me to the conclusion that they are still very far from usable by the average mathematician on a daily basis. Despite all the fancy tools that exist now, verifying a proof with a computer is usually still a lot more work than writing that proof on paper. And that’s after you spend the necessary time and effort learning to use the proof assistant tool, which generally comes with quite a passel of idiosyncracies.

Moreover, in most cases the benefits to verifying a proof with a computer are doubtful. For big theorems that are very long or complicated or automated, so that their authors have a hard time convincing other mathematicians of their correctness by hand, there’s a clear win. (That’s one of the reasons I believe (1), because I believe that proofs of this sort are also going to get more common.) Moreover, a certain kind of mathematician finds proof verification fun and rewarding for its own sake. But for the everyday proof by your average mathematician, which can be read and understood by any other average mathematician, the benefit from sweating long hours to convince a computer of its truth is just not there (yet). That’s why, despite periodic messianic claims from various quarters, you don’t see mathematicians jumping on any bandwagon of proof verification.

<snip>


 

Logical

(22,457 posts)
28. "They work, but it'll be generations before they are widely trusted and used." Bullshit......
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 11:57 AM
Sep 2015

It amazes me how technology short sighted some people are.

Of course there will be self driving cars in the next 10 - 15 years.

Google is driving 1000s of miles a day in these already.

They will work out the liability issues easily.

People hate progress.

 

Logical

(22,457 posts)
35. Well, no one really worked on one as hard as like google is the car. And the cost.....
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 12:05 PM
Sep 2015

of a flying car would be way too much.

 

Chan790

(20,176 posts)
81. To say nothing of the reality...
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 07:42 PM
Sep 2015

that a flying car is a really really bad idea for the same reason most people aren't keen to get in a Cessna or a Piper...when they have mechanical failures or crash or run out of gas...you tend to plummet and die.

The flying car was never actually a possibility as much as an amusing sci-fi trope. Nobody really should have a flying car,

longship

(40,416 posts)
41. I challenge Google to attempt to navigate I-80 in the winter.
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 12:35 PM
Sep 2015

Autonomous vehicles just cannot handle snow storms. I don't know if they can even handle rain storms.

There likely will always be a need for a human driver at the controls.

longship

(40,416 posts)
48. Elevators. Probably the safest mode of transportation ever.
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 01:19 PM
Sep 2015

Plus, it is constrained to one dimension. It is really easy to be safe when one has those constraints.

Again, I will believe it when a car drives itself on I-80 from coast to coast in winter without crashing. That isn't going to happen. And that is relatively easy, a wide Interstate highway. The roads near me? GPS is not accurate enough to tell the road from a lake.

longship

(40,416 posts)
54. Again, winter is the problem.
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 01:35 PM
Sep 2015

All the Google car trials happen in sunny California, or Las Vegas, or other desert climates.

The test is to navigate I-80 during winter, through the Rockies. Or even through northern Nebraska! That ignores where I live where most roads aren't even paved. And yes, winters here in rural MI can be brutal.

Some folks are living in a SciFi wet dream. In order for autonomous vehicles to have a fair chance one would likely have to change the infrastructure.

However, it could be done with rail, where ones path is constrained. But not on today's roadways, and certainly not in winter.

 

Logical

(22,457 posts)
64. You do not understand advancement in technology. But that is OK, it will happen without you. You....
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 05:15 PM
Sep 2015

missed a lot of history in this area.

People used to say the only way was wires under the street. That has already been proved not to be needed.

longship

(40,416 posts)
66. You really like those straw men.
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 05:32 PM
Sep 2015

Stop with them and address my specific objections!

Explain how autonomous vehicles can navigate in winter conditions.

That's right. You can't because they are never tested under those conditions. Why? Because they cannot handle those conditions.

Yet one of the prevalent arguments for autonomous vehicles is long haul trucking. But ask any trucker about driving in winter.

The use for this tech can best be for where the route is constrained, RAIL!

I love the Google Cars. They are cool. But we will likely never see autonomous vehicles on the Interstates. (For one, no insurer would allow it.) However on rail there would be definite advantages. Plus the Google Cars can bring more safety to everybody's car, as is being implemented in high end cars these days.

Eventually the cost of the tech will come down and we will all have it. But cars will not likely drive themselves unless roadway infrastructure was wholly replaced by something different in kind to allow such a thing. And winter will always be a problem.

longship

(40,416 posts)
71. I will try one more time to reason with you.
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 05:53 PM
Sep 2015

Here is the cutting edge of this technology. Note that although it is very promising, it is still no where near good enough to be put on our highways.

Regardless, the technology demonstrated is awesome!

DARPA Grand Challenge.

I would love to see a DARPA Grand Challenge under winter conditions, for instance through an Interstate highway mountain pass, with severe curves and precipitous drop offs at the road's edge. And in a blinding white out, or maybe just a mere two inches of fresh snow and clear weather.

Those are the conditions on US highways for months every year. That is the test of whether an autonomous driving vehicle is ready to hit the road.

Fortunately, DARPA is funding such research. But I just don't think that they'll solve the winter problem as easily as you apparently think they will.

Chathamization

(1,638 posts)
88. And general AI has been 10 years away for the past 50 years
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 08:35 PM
Sep 2015

It seems like we'll eventually get autonomous vehicles. But if someone thinks they know for certain where highly experimental technology will be in 10 years, they're probably wrong.

 

Chan790

(20,176 posts)
98. Actually...
Wed Sep 9, 2015, 12:57 AM
Sep 2015

the trend among producers working on the technology has been to remove the driver controls so that manual override is an impossibility. They found that people who can take the controls will take the controls and their odds of getting into an accident are even higher than if they'd been driving all along. Conversely, the autonomous car is better at accident avoidance than 99% of human drivers. So...the best circumstance in terms of safety is the one where the car drives itself and you are powerless to take control.

Statistical

(19,264 posts)
40. In related news fake signals can confuse human drivers too.
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 12:35 PM
Sep 2015

Try removing a stop sign or making all traffic signals green at the same time and see what happens. Generally people don't do that because a) they aren't sociopaths and b) there are criminal penalties.

Just one reason those 'magic' self-driving Google cars are nothing more than PR.

Just one reason those 'magic' horseless carriages are nothing more than PR. - A "DUer" circa 1880s.

goldent

(1,582 posts)
86. I think Google is doing great research
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 08:34 PM
Sep 2015

But I don't expect a truly self driving car as people imagine it in 20 years. It reminds me a little of the nuclear car that had a small nuclear reactor in the trunk - it was feasible but never caught on. What is coming are convenience and safety aids (self parking, watching to keep in your lane).

Throd

(7,208 posts)
99. Am I the only one here with zero interest in self-driving cars?
Wed Sep 9, 2015, 01:02 AM
Sep 2015

I can see the appeal they may have for some, but I really enjoy driving.

PoliticAverse

(26,366 posts)
100. It's seems pretty clear lots of people like to drive however,
Thu Sep 10, 2015, 05:36 AM
Sep 2015

Last edited Thu Sep 10, 2015, 06:29 AM - Edit history (1)

even for someone who loves driving there are undoubtedly times when they
would rather just do something else while getting to their destination. Perhaps
when they are spending an hour in stop and go commuting traffic or when they
have a 10-hour interstate highway trek to make. One should distinguish between
cars that have only an autonomous mode and cars that can switch between
autonomous and manual mode. If the car you buy in 2025 has the option to
be autonomous anytime you want you just may find yourself using the feature
at times even if it is only to parallel park.

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