Democrats to Win in a Landslide in 2016, According to Moody's Election Model

[jaysunb]

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Our Moody's Analytics election model now predicts a Democratic electoral landslide in the 2016 presidential vote. A small change in the forecast data in August has swung the outcome from the statistical tie predicted in July, to a razor-edge ballot outcome that nevertheless gives the incumbent party 326 electoral votes to the Republican challenger's 212.

Just three states account for the change in margin, with Ohio, Florida and Colorado swinging from leaning Republican to leaning Democrat. The margin of victory in each of these important swing states is still solidly within the margin of error though, and will likely swing back and forth in Moody's monthly updates ahead, underlining the closeness of the election to come. Furthermore, three of the candidates for the Republican nomination enjoy favorite-son status in Ohio or Florida, potentially making the outcome of those important states even more unpredictable.



It takes 270 electoral votes to win a U.S. presidential election. Our July forecast predicted a Democratic win with 270 electoral votes, to 268 for the Republican, regardless of who wins either party's nomination. Read More: Deep Dive Into Moody's Model.

http://www.thestreet.com/story/13271435/1/democrats-to-win-in-a-landslide-in-2016-according-to-moody-s-election-model.html

[BillZBubb]

1. Their model is pretty useless if it is that sensitive.

[jaysunb]

2. They've been correct every election since 1980. n/t

[unblock]

6. the electoral college can easily magnify slight differences in popular vote.

note that they're saying it would be a razor-thin popular vote victory.

[Juicy_Bellows]

3. All the more reason to put the most progressive candidate forward.

The Blue Wall will likely carry anyone on the Democratic side to victory.

[struggle4progress]

4. Wait. Chickens hatch. Then count. Meanwhile work work work!

[global1]

5. The Question Is Though....

Will this landslide bring along Senate and House seats and how many?

[RandySF]

7. MAYBE the Senate

But not the House.