Course of Deadly Tropical Storm Erika Puzzles Forecasters

[Purveyor]

Forecasters and emergency agencies prepped for a long weekend Thursday as Tropical Storm Erika wobbled toward Puerto Rico and then the southern Atlantic coast, where it could be a hurricane when it arrives early next week.

A tropical storm warning was in effect Thursday afternoon for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands after Erika caused mudslides blamed for at least four deaths on the Caribbean island of Dominica.

More than 12 inches of rain poured down on Dominica in less than 12 hours, the National Weather Service said — and it could do close to the same overnight and Friday on Puerto Rico, where forecasters warned that major flooding is possible.

After that, it's anybody's guess.

The center of Erika started "wobbling" Thursday, according to the weather service, making it difficult to project its course. The storm was about 135 miles south east of San Juan, Puerto Rico, at 11 p.m. Thursday night with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph, the National Hurricane Center said.

"At this point, to quote Shakespeare, 'to be or not to be — that is the question,'" said Danielle Banks, a meteorologist for The Weather Channel. "There's still a lot of uncertainty with the track and the intensity."

more...

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/all-hands-deck-forecasters-puzzle-over-course-tropical-storm-erika-n417386

[BumRushDaShow]

1. K&R

[Katashi_itto]

2. K&R

[Lochloosa]

3. The track has changed again...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL0515W5_NL_sm2+gif/115331W5_NL_sm.gif

[starroute]

4. Latest is that it won't be a hurricane -- but will move very slowly

The current map at Weather Underground has it passing over Haiti, which will keep it from intensifying, but then spending from Sunday night to Wednesday moving up the Florida peninsula the long way.

Not fun.

[Fuddnik]

5. Oh goody. Just what we need.

More rain. Floodwaters are just starting to subside from all the rain a couple of weeks ago.