What the Trump poll numbers aren't telling us

[padfun]

I think the poll numbers that have Trump with a 35% favor and a large lead can be misleading. I think that what you see is about the maximum he is going to get. Maybe to 40% but no more. Most Republicans don't like him.

I heard that there are three types of republicans. The Evangelicals, the Established Republicans (Neocons?), and the Fiscal Conservative Social Moderate conservatives. I think Trump has tapped into the Evangelicals and maybe a few Fiscal/Social ones. But he isn't getting the Established and/or most of the fiscal/social crowd. He has tapped the Tea party and some "Libertarians."

As candidates drop out, I think that one of the others will start to catch Trump and eventually overtake him. I question whether it would it be in time? Would Trump have gotten too many delegates from the early states to make it hard to catch? Maybe that is when the bigger states that come later might have more of a say than they traditionally do.

Either way, it has become a very interesting race. In both primaries. Far different that I ever expected six months ago.

[geek tragedy]

1. Two words: brokered convention nt

[Fred Sanders]

2. It is August, 2015....6 long months to any vote cast in anger during this media primary season.

[krawhitham]

3. 3 weeks ago people claimed his ceiling was 20%

[ericson00]

7. clearly, if one looks at Trump in two-way races,

he's north of 50%, or close enough that even the more generous allocations of undecideds to the other yields a Trump victory.

[stevenleser]

4. A huge amount of other folks have him as their 2nd choice. It's looking more and more to me like

Trump is the GOP nominee.

[Liberal_in_LA]

5. maybe

[ericson00]

6. when other candidates drop, surely some of their voters will stay home

and thus lower the denominator of total votes, and Trump's percentage goes up by math. Then, when he only has opponents who can't go a sentence without a gaffe, like Jeb and his "Asian people" remark, "act of love," common core, and other things he probably shouldn't have said, they'll go to what they see as the lesser of two evils. A PPP poll in NC had Jeb losing badly to Trump in a 2 way. A newer one in NH had Trump beating all of the top other guys by landslides in two way races. Lets be real here. Rubio is going nowhere fast. Also, its pointless to talk hypothetical 2 way races in primaries. Primaries, like almost all US elections, are first-past-the-post. There are no runoffs.

Also, when you're polling 35% in a pool of 17, that's very VERY strong. Lincoln got 39% in an election of 4.

[Stargleamer]

8. After Scottt Walker drops out shortly after the New Jersey Primary

and asks his supporters to support Jeb, then Jeb takes Florida and goes on a winning streak, winning in Missouri and Colorado, and eventually becomes their nominee. John Kasich will also eventually drop out too and endorse Jeb and there's a good chance he'll be Jeb's VP choice. I'm not sure how Hillary can win in Ohio in the General Election; it seems like Jeb might unfortunately be the next president.

[rufus dog]

9. I agree the repubs may win Ohio

And it won't win them the White House. Yes the pubs can't win without Ohio, but now they also need Nevada, Colorado, Virginia, etc. and it ain't going to happen.

[Samantha]

10. Do you think Florida will still vote for Jeb after he publicly said Medicare needed to be phased out

I thought that was just about the most stupid thing the man could say considering the state he represents and its importance in number of electoral votes.

Sam

[Stargleamer]

11. If the world made sense it wouldn't. . .

but then again if the world made Republicans wouldn't stand a chance. I think they'll consider him a "favorite son" and vote for him. He'll probably choose Kasich as his running mate in order to win in Ohio too.

[spinbaby]

13. I don't agree

Jeb is just too unenthusiastic and gaff prone as a candidate and has all that family baggage. I think Kasich or Walker will probably be the last standing.

[Generic Brad]

12. He's lost the press

His behavior has guaranteed he will not receive favorable coverage down the road. He will fizzle shortly after South Carolina if he makes it that far.