Do any of you think that Donald Trump could win the general election

[WI_DEM]

if he is the GOP nominee?

I think he would get a lot of angry white bigots to the polls, but I think latinos and African Americans would also vote in record numbers--Against Trump.

[onehandle]

1. No. nt

[Yavin4]

2. He would have to win the White male vote with a margin of 90%+

Anything less and he would lose by record proportions.

[elleng]

3. Yes, especially if repugs play same games at the polls they've done in the past.

[JustAnotherGen]

52. ITA

They fight dirty.

[lpbk2713]

4. I think Trump will be an obscure and silly memory by the time of the GE.

Radicals like him get a lot of press early but they burn out quickly.

[rocktivity]

5. He won't be the GOP nominee

Last edited Mon Aug 24, 2015, 03:55 PM - Edit history (1)

As they said in those old secret agent movies, he'll be disposed of as soon as he's outlived his usefulness.


rocktivity

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

6. W got into the White House, by hook or crook.

So it's possible the Donald could do the same, however unlikely it seems.

[lpbk2713]

8. Donald's Daddy didn't head the CIA.

And he doesn't have a brother who is a state governor who can help swing the vote.

[zappaman]

7. I do.

It's a nightmare.

[Tommy_Carcetti]

9. I saw Rick Scott get elected and re-elected.

Therefore I'm not counting anything out.

I'd like to say no, but if I'm wrong, the consequences for the country are devastating IMHO.

Frankly, I'd just as well see Trump out now and deal with Bush or Walker or whatever Koch favorite head on. The implications of a President Trump are just too depressing. Nero redux.

[HERVEPA]

27. Same comment as above and substiture Reagan.

Nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American people.
H. L. Mencken US editor (1880 - 1956) ...

[TDale313]

10. I think he's dangerous,

And we underestimate him at our peril. Yes, he's a ridiculous figure, but we've elected ridiculous figures before. And there are a lot of very angry people who love that he's basically giving the establishment the finger. I'd like to believe it could never happen, but not convinced it couldn't.

[stevenleser]

17. Agreed. nt

[olddots]

11. never say never

Alot of people thought the Nazis were just a fad or we would never have cellular technoloy , printing presses or yoga studios .

[old guy]

12. No.

[sadoldgirl]

13. I wish I could say no,

but the electorate has been dumbed down by
people like Rush L and fox news. The people have become
gullible, and might not see the fascism that Trump
would bring.

Remember that fascism works together with the
big corporations and banks; thus there would be
no interference coming from their side.

So, yes , it could come to that.

[AngryAmish]

14. Yes. In a debate he will murder his opponent.

It does not matter who. He has been a media member for 30 years. He can think on his feet.

The only one who can stop him is himself. Clinton has limited ammo against him: she took his money, went to his wedding and belongs to his country club.

[KMOD]

15. Just the thought of it

petrifies me.

[closeupready]

16. Sure, why not? If Arnold Schwarzenegger can be elected

governor of one of the most important US states, then Trump - a native-born American - could win the White House.

[Bonhomme Richard]

18. I don't know but the electorate scares me. n/t

[pampango]

19. It would have to be a 3-way race somehow. I can't see him winning a head-to-head election with a

Democratic opponent.

It would be an international embarrassment to even have him make it into the general election. At least for now, a majority of republicans say they will not vote for him. Let's hope they stick to that.

[Rex]

20. I said FUCK NO before, but not sure now.

The first Clown Car debate did not go the way I thought it would. So now I am unsure.

[Liberal_in_LA]

21. no but it is looking like he could win the gop primary

[JCMach1]

22. People also refused to take Reagan seriously...

We know what happened there.

I also stand by my mantra: never misunderestimate the idiocy of the American electorate...

[padfun]

29. Actually Reagan was second in the 1976 primary.

He was NOT an unknown and was already a politician (Gov of Calif) before he even ran in 1976.

Some people like to talk like Reagan was a 'Johnny come lately'. He wasn't.

[Xolodno]

34. Ummm....I would say the Democratic Party screwed the pooch on that one.

Reagan was a serious candidate and stole the show in the 1976 GOP convention....leaving many to wonder if they put the wrong guy up.

Dismissing him as an actor and shouldn't be taken seriously was an attempt to "ridicule" him as someone who was in over his head. He wasn't and committed to ideas that resonated with a populist agenda. And given some missteps by Carter and believing their own bullshit that Reagan was unelectable...he took the election.

Trump has alienated way too much of the populace and has said plenty of outlandish things he won't be able to run from. He's not going to be able to turn and pivot and be serious. Being outlandish is whats catapulting him to the top of the GOP...but in the GE, it will sink him.

[mnhtnbb]

23. Did anyone think Bushie boy could become POTUS--twice?

So much is so f*cked up in this country. People have been
brainwashed by FOX--but they were already inclined to bigotry, misogyny,
racism--and the Repubs have bought elections...gerrymandered districts...
taken control of voting rights...so I wouldn't think it impossible that
Donald Trump could win the general election.

[0rganism]

24. he'd have to win Florida and Ohio

he might be able to pull off Florida, although i'd imagine the Hispanic vote would be something of an uphill fight for the Donald.
i think Ohio will be extremely difficult for him, despite the state's recent republican tendencies. if he brings Kasich on as the veep, it's doable.

a lot depends on the Democratic nominee and how s/he plays it.

[Blue_In_AK]

25. Yes,

because Americans are just that stupid.

[Hoyt]

26. There are a lot of bigots out there, and a lot of folks who think the blowhard could solve the

economic issues. Assuming he could get nomination, all it would take is one good economic shock, or even a terrorist attack, to make stupid voters say maybe a change is a good idea. Hope it doesn't happen.

[leftynyc]

28. Yes - definitely could win

But I don't think he will. I do expect him to be the rep nominee as I don't see anyone in that clown car that can take him down.

[whatthehey]

30. Again we see the Trump = Reagan or Shrub inanities

The only thing they had in common as candidates was idiocy. Which state did Trump govern again? How many elections or campaigns has he worked on? How much media vetting has he received as a serious candidate?

[steve2470]

31. this country elected Reagan, so yes nt

[Motown_Johnny]

32. If Hillary is indicted in late October

but if we assume that nothing criminal was involved with the emails (or anything else), then it seems unlikely.

Of course, this country elected W twice. Anything is possible.

[LanternWaste]

33. He'd do worse than Goldwater in 1964.

He'd do worse than Goldwater in 1964 in both the popular and the electoral vote. He'll fail miserably at broadening his base of support, he'll alienate the (few remaining) moderate republicans, he'll receive few endorsements, and due to his his extremists positions, would allow even the most fanatical and overly-zealous Democratic candidate to appeal to the moderates and centrists.

[daleanime]

35. No....

[Gothmog]

36. No, the GOP nominee needs 40+% of Hispanic voter and trump would get less than Romney

[chillfactor]

37. No n/t

[sorefeet]

38. Trump hasn't been vetted yet

the Trump lovers I know don't know he was given his fortune. When I tell them, they are shocked because they think he is self made. They don't know who he is, they just believe the blow hard. All that tells me is they are low-information, gullible, puppets to lazy to search for or understand the truth. Wait until it gets know he is a woman beater. Or childhood bully. It's a long time until elections.

[Glimmer of Hope]

39. If it becomes a realistic possibility I will GOTV till my legs fall off.

[hunter]

40. Two terms of GWB...

[Vinca]

41. Absolutely.

If Shrub can win a second term, Bozo the Clown can win a first.

[pnwmom]

42. Any Rethug could, and he's got more money than most. n/t

[Johonny]

43. It is hard to imagine him winning against an opponent not only willing to call him on his BS

but happy he will create more BS to call on. The problem right now is the GOP primary voter has proven over the past twenty five years to not represent the voting public at all.

[Hiraeth]

44. if there is a God in heaven please, no. Do not let that buffoon represent this nation.

[nadinbrzezinski]

45. Yes, we are taking him that seriously in this household

we keep quipping that a GE between him and Sanders will be amazing to watch, but get me a truckfull of TUMMS election night. In the agregate the American voter can be that stupid... and there are similar dynamics now to how Reagan got elected.

[backscatter712]

46. We live in a country of idiots, so yes, I think he can win.

He's gonna have all the teabaggers pouring out of their megachurches to vote for him like a horde of orcs from Mordor.

The stupid is strong in this country. Nixon got elected. Reagan got elected. Bush Sr. got elected. Bush Jr. got elected (ok, with an asterisk).

We've got a huge population of easily manipulatable rubes living in the U.S., so it's going to take a lot of work, and a strong dynamic candidate to fend them off.

[lumberjack_jeff]

47. Yes. Populism is where it's at.

I hope democrats are not learning this lesson too late.

Expectations for Trump are low, expectations for Clinton are high. I don't like the idea of Clinton v Trump.

[Chitown Kev]

48. No. The media is enjoying the Trump clown right now

but if Trump even begins to think that he can be elected President, piles of Trump dirt and shade will come tumbling out of media closets.

[briv1016]

49. He wont be the GOP nominee.

The GOP establishment will see to that. Whether by scandal or by bullet.

[Art_from_Ark]

51. Scandals don't hurt Republicans

Remember Iran-contra? It didn't hurt Bush Sr. when he ran for President 2 years later.

[RebelOne]

50. I hope not. n/t

[newblewtoo]

53. Yes, sadly I do

for many of the reasons which have already been stated.

But, I would also like to point out that when the debate turns to illegal immigration, legal immigrants and blacks have the most to lose , a fact which is not lost on them. I mean, think about it, illegals immigrants do not take jobs from white middle class Americans. Populism plays across the broad spectrum. Trump's strategy appears to be to drive a wedge deep into our traditional voting blocks. He only needs to pick off or discourage a fraction of those voters to deny Democrats a victory.

We dismiss his viability at our peril.

[ericson00]

54. if AND ONLY IF Obama's approvals have trouble holding 40%

of time, because that was the scenario that kicked Humphrey (he was LBJ's veep), Jimmy Carter and George HW Bush out of office in 1968, 1980 and 1992. Obama's not likely to let his approvals go that low. It seems he's saving his political capital for 2016 and he does have an increase in economic situation over his term, whereas the 3 who lost did not.

Then again, with Trump as the GOP nominee, 2016 could be the exception as was Gore in 2000. Monica was the extroadinary scenario as will be Trump's overt racism and racist following (In reality, Gore in 2000 actually does jive with that trend because Clinton's approvals helped him win the most votes, the EV-PV split is a statistical outlier, and Bush stole 2000 with Jeb's help, but it was close enough to call it a loss, plus Bush became Prez). But don't expect Trump to be a pushover, and if the rumors of Carson on the ticket pan out, we'll have to see where the black vote goes. Also, if Obama is pushing 30, then Trump will win, but that's only likely in a Bush 2008-like or Nixon 1974 scenario.

[RedCappedBandit]

55. I think the way we collectively underestimate republican candidates is naive. nt

[matt819]

56. Yes

[TheFarseer]

57. I think anything can happen.

If something unexpected happens and the media latches onto a certain narrative, it can totally throw an election. I wouldn't discount any candidate.

[EL34x4]

58. This is a nation that made celebrities out of the Kardashians.

Trump could win.

[tabasco]

59. Of course he could. There are tens of millions of stupid, gullible people in the U.S.

And the right-wing-owned mass media will be catapulting the propaganda like never before. Tipping the balance would be the millions of dollars worth of 1% propaganda thanks to Citizens United.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

60. NO. Absolutely NO.

[Hydra]

61. I'm seeing this as a partial Mitt Romney rerun

He can't get more than token female and minority votes, and that's a huge chunk of the electorate. Unless there is Bush level cheating again, he's not getting in. Also, he's not in with the GOP leadership(Said Bushes), so he's not really even their candidate.

So while it is statistically legally impossible...nothing has been impossible that's illegal lately.

[Lil Missy]

62. No. When it's time to cough up his Financials, he'll drop out. n/t