President Trump's First 100 Days
They might be a pleasant surprise. The rest of his presidency is another story.
By BILL SCHER
August 24, 2015
-snip-
As much as Trump likes to project an aura of someone who plays by his own rules and always gets his way, once in the Oval Office he would be just another politician, bound by the laws of political gravity. He may want to break some china, literally and figuratively. But in his first 100 days, the constitutional constraints of the office would become apparent, and the fears of instantaneous disaster would dissipate.
A few expected initial moves would rattle some cages. Trump would rescind President Obama’s executive actions providing deportation relief to undocumented immigrants, satisfying his base while sparking outcry from immigrant advocates. And you can expect the Trump Treasury Department to label China a currency manipulator, a legal precursor to imposing new tariffs popular with working class Americans and manufacturing chiefs but opposed by other CEOs who rely of cheap Chinese goods.
Those are actions solely within the purview of the executive branch. What Trump could not do at the point of a finger is undo Obama’s policies established by the formal regulatory process. Trump may think that global warming is a hoax, but he can’t wipe the EPA’s carbon rules off the books without undergoing a laborious regulatory process of his own. Even then he could be stymied by environmentalist lawsuits charging him with violating the Clean Air Act.
Trump has also expressed reluctance for abrupt shifts in foreign policy. On NBC’s Meet The Press earlier this month, he shied away from abandoning Obama’s nuclear deal with Iran: “It's very tough to do when you say, ‘Rip up a deal.’ Because I'm a deal person.” Though he assured viewers, “I will police that deal.” Presumably that logic would apply not only to the Iran deal but also the Trans-Pacific Partnership that he also loathes, should that trade agreement be finalized. His ability to “police” the Iran deal is highly contingent upon the efforts of the International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors. On trade, however, he could build on Obama’s strategy of stepped up prosecution of World Trade Organization rules against China and aggressively employ the dispute mechanisms in TPP.
Of course there’s a possibility of him doing something truly rash like start a new war or let the fight against ISIL spiral out of control; he often speaks of seizing or bombing Iraqi oil fields, a move that could cause fierce backlash among Iraqis. But Trump also indicates a general reluctance for war. He has said he doesn’t want to be “policeman to the world” and opposed Bush’s invasion of Iraq. And interestingly for someone who regularly trashes President Obama’s foreign policy, he also said on Meet The Press that Obama’s new Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff was a “very impressive guy” who “will do a terrific job.” If he retains some of Obama’s advisers from the military establishment, presumably (fingers crossed) they would successfully caution him against reckless acts.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/08/president-trump-wouldnt-destroy-america-121604.html#ixzz3jkC81Gct
= new reply since forum marked as read
