Can Any Republican Win Their Home State?

[DonViejo]

“After a battery of new polling from Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania was released on Thursday, something jumped out at us. Many 2016 Republicans weren’t winning their own states in the primary, in the general, or both,” the Washington Post reports.

“The only bright spot for Republicans? Probably John Kasich. The head-to-head match-up with Hillary Clinton is a bit old, but he leads in the primary and general in his home state — and it’s an important one. As the Republican field narrows, this picture will probably change significantly. So far, though, being from a state doesn’t seem to be doing much to ensure loyalty from the state’s voters.”

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http://politicalwire.com/2015/08/22/can-any-republican-win-their-home-state/

[leftofcool]

1. I am not sure any Republican can win their home state.

Hillary polled head to head with Rand Paul here in Kentucky and she is very popular here while Paul status as a Senator has been slipping for some time. I personally think Clinton may take Kentucky in the GE.

[JustAnotherGen]

2. Christie can't in NJ

Even die hard Conservatives can see how far behind NJ is.

[underpants]

3. What are the Gilmore vs. Clinton numbers in Virginia?

Saw BIL Maher live last night in Roanoke. "what does Gilmore think his end game is? ISIS attacks next Repuican debate and he moves up to number 7?!?!?!"

[NYCButterfinger]

4. Christie is toast here in NJ

Period.

[FarPoint]

5. Kasich indeed could do that..

Ohio is full of Teabaggers and voted him in office as governor twice. The GOP Convention is in Cleveland. I have analyzed the GOP big picture plan was always to have Kasich be their 2016 candidate.

[SheilaT]

6. No matter who the two nominees are,

I just hope no one here starts thinking we will win in a cakewalk.

For one thing, the Republicans are going to be desperate to get back into the White House. For another they will be equally desperate to hold on to the House and Senate, and have already gerrymandered many states to keep the House. The Senate will be somewhat more fairly up for grabs, although I'm not currently paying much attention to which Senate seats are up next year.

It's comforting to think that any of the Dems currently seeking the nomination would beat any of the Republicans doing the same. Just don't count on it.

[edhopper]

7. It's way to early to tell anything

But I have thought a Kaisch/Rubio ticket could win if they get Ohio and Florida.

[oberliner]

8. Do you see Hilary winning Arkansas?

Does that count as her home state?

[former9thward]

10. Her only tie there was Bill.

She was born in IL and a senator from NY.

[karynnj]

11. She lived there for more than a decade and was their First Lady when he was Governor

If the issue is that she would lose Arkansas, the question is whether ANY Democrat would win it. I respect no politician more than John kerry, but I really do not think it an important distinction that he won his state (overwhelmingly) while Gore lost his -- in fact both won MA and lost TN. Nor do I think Bernie should get huge credit for winning his states, Vt where he has lived most his adult live, Illinois where he went to college, and NY where he was born and grew up. Without those states, it would be a catastrophic Democratic loss.

For the Republicans, the fact that Perry likely does win Texas is not that big a thing -- all of them will win Texas unless there is an amazing landslide.

The ONLY time it would be important would be if a swing state becomes mush more likely to be won with a given nominee, while it is lost otherwise. Note that many see the charismatic Castro as the VP. Is it a problem that he will likely lose his home state -- Texas?

[former9thward]

12. A ticket with with or without Castro would lose TX no doubt.

If Clinton is the nominee I think she will pick a Governor or Senator of a swing state. I can see her picking Webb of VA.

[karynnj]

13. I think Castro has a better overall effect on the ticket than Reagan's Secretary of War

Webb brings many negatives and is a terrible campaigner. I certainly do not want him anywhere near the Presidency.

If you want to completely demoralize the left, many of whom would not be thrilled with Clinton, add Webb.

Castro on the other hand, would be a choice that many on the left would be happy with, he is extremely charismatic and would make a great President as her successor. As to the 2016 campaign, though he is n more likely to win Tx, than HRC is to win AR (and ALL reasonable Democrats win IL and NY), Castro would be great in any state with the progressive, youth or Hispanic vote. Remember that immigration is likely to a big issue that works for us -- Castro is a plus on this. (Webb clouds things with his Scotch/Irish meme and his confederate flag nonsense.)

[former9thward]

9. Kasich would win Ohio.

Bush would win Florida. Huckabee would win Arkansas. Perry would win Texas. I don't know Trump's home state, he has got them everywhere but he would win Florida. Graham would win South Carolina. Rubio would win Florida. Paul would win Kentucky. I don't know what state Carson is from but if its in the south he would win that. Cruz would win Texas. Jindal would win Louisiana.

The majority of Rs would win their home states.

[Reter]

14. Plenty

Cruz, Paul, and Jinal easily can. Bush possibly can. Trump not a chance.