We underestimate Dr. Ben Carson at our peril.

[pnwmom]

I am not surprised at his recent rise in the polls, and this is why.

Some people think that the Repubs are too racist to nominate a black man for President. I disagree. I think they would be fine with a black man who makes them feel good about themselves, as he does. And I think many are convinced that the only reason President Obama won was because he was black and got such a large turnout in the minority communities. So they reason that if they put up their own African American candidate, all those voters will swing to them -- regardless of his policy positions. Just because of the color of his skin. That's how dumb the Repubs think minority voters are. For the Repubs to like Ben Carson would fit closely with their racism.

Also, the Repubs have many more religious and very religious voters than the Dems, who tend to have liberal views on religion, if any. The exception is with black and Latino Democrats, who tend to be much more religious than non-hispanic white people. Carson could speak to those people in a way some of our candidates could not -- Bernie Sanders, in particular. Bernie, unlike many of his followers (especially here on DU), is not ANTI-religious. But he has no religious views himself. (Hillary Clinton, by contrast, is a practicing Methodist who, in some settings, sounds like many of the liberal nuns I grew up with. That may be why she has such high support among black women in particular.)

And finally, Carson did well in the first debate, and managed to end it with a little joke that drew attention to his career as a neurosurgeon. People will respect him for that even though it has nothing to do with his ability to be President.

Right now Carson is tied with Cruz for second place, according the Fox poll. That doesn't surprise me now and it won't surprise me if he rises to the top.

P.S. At one point in time, Ronald Reagan, star of "Bedtime for Bonzo," and a failed Presidential candidate, was a laughingstock among Democrats. Now he's a Repub icon.

[Adenoid_Hynkel]

1. He's poison in a general election

With a mountain of idiotic fringe lunacy to rival Pat Robertson

[pnwmom]

3. He might seem that way to us, if we keep our Democratic partisan blinders on.

What seems like lunacy to DUers could make sense to a lot of swing voters -- especially to those who don't pay a lot of attention to policy -- who react more to personality and presentation. You'd be surprised by how many of those voters there are.

[woolldog]

42. He's too meek to do well in the GE.

His ceiling is about 15% of the GOP electorate.

[PoliticAverse]

2. Carson has even less chance of being elected President than Donald Trump. n/t

[yeoman6987]

4. And if Dr. Carson got the GOP nod and lost the general

GOP will scream that the Democratic Party are full of racists. Bet on it and the news will emphasize it too.

[3catwoman3]

5. I do not think we should underestimate...

...any of them, nor those who would happily vote for them. There is not a single one that I would like to see in the WH.

[fadedrose]

6. Carson told about his mother

and her influence on his learning...

The wrong person is running for office. It should be her.

[pnwmom]

7. LOL!

You're right. It should be her.

[ShrimpPoboy]

8. Dems have had the AA vote on lock

for decades with 80-90%+ of that community's vote. I have a hard time believing a black GOP candidate will make much of a difference in that, if any. Especially now that BLM has become a prominent issue and Republicans are all but ignoring it.

Carson is, quite obviously, a smart and capable guy in his own right but he's completely untested on the campaign trail. I won't underestimate him but I'm not expecting much either.

[pnwmom]

9. I don't think you are aware how insulting that sounds. We don't have a lock

on anyone's vote. We've just been doing better than the Rethugs for several decades. Things could and have changed.

Black people have been shouting it to the heavens -- they are tired of being taken for granted by the Democrats while being abused by institutional racism. Black lives matter.

If we ran someone who sounded like many DUers -- strongly anti-religion -- we could drive some religious people away, including religious minority voters.

That would be a mistake. We need progressive people across the spectrum, whether they have a faith or not.

We can't insult someone's religious beliefs and expect them to stay aligned with us no matter what. And we can't ignore the issue of justice reform and institutionalized racism and expect to keep their votes.

[ShrimpPoboy]

10. It's an observation

Of an undeniable statistical trend. I wasnt trying to be offensive but I can acknowledge it's not the best word choice and will be more sensitive to that. Point taken.

I find the idea that POC will vote for Carson just because he's black to be offensive as well. That Dems have had such an advantage with AA voters is due to policy IMO and Carson's skin color shouldn't be more important than what he intends to do in office.

I'm glad BLM is an issue at the forefront now in any event. The respective parties' response to it has shined a light on why the Dems have historically had that advantage. Presumably/hopefully, it will also push Dems to address it in office as well as on the campaign, perhaps proving why they deserved the historical minority support, at least in comparison to the alternative.

[pnwmom]

11. I don't think POC will vote for Carson because he's black -- but I think the Repubs are racist

enough to believe that's the case.

I believe he could appeal to some minority voters on some particular issues -- for example, on the basis of shared religious beliefs. It's a mistake for us to treat religious people with contempt, while the Repubs welcome them with open arms. It's one thing to disagree with them on particular issues -- birth control or abortion, for example. It's another to treat them with general contempt, as too often happens here.

[ShrimpPoboy]

17. I tend to think the GOP

is smart enough not to really think Carson will deliver enough minority vote to make a difference on his blackness alone. Some in the base may think that but surely their consultants know better.

Otherwise i agree with you.

[geek tragedy]

12. Ben Carson is the guy who makes Trump look reasonable and sane nt

[pnwmom]

13. I just googled for Ben Carson quotes and this is what turned up first.

http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/b/benjamin_carson.html

I just glanced at the first bunch, but I doubt most people encountering this will think he's a looney-tune.

[geek tragedy]

14. Ben Carson: Obamacare worst thing since slavery

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2013/10/11/ben-carson-obamacare-worst-thing-since-slavery/

[geek tragedy]

15. Ben Carson on same-sex marriage:

“[Traditional marriage is] a well-established, fundamental pillar of society and no group — be they gays, be they NAMBLA, be they people who believe in bestiality, it doesn’t matter what they are — they don’t get to change the definition,” Carson said in the Fox News interview, referring to the North American Man/Boy Love Association, which seeks to overturn pedophilia laws.

He's an unhinged bigot.

[geek tragedy]

16. "A lot of people who go into prison straight, and when they come out they’re gay.”

http://www.cnn.com/2015/03/04/politics/ben-carson-prisons-gay-choice/

This guy is a soft-spoken Trump, he kicks the GLBT community instead of immigrants.

[pnwmom]

18. From our perspective, he is crazy. But not from the perspective of Rethug primary voters.

With them, he is entirely mainstream.

And if he's the nominee, he will have the backing of a billion or two from the Koch brothers, as well as the entire Rethug campaign organization.

[geek tragedy]

20. That's the case with anyone who drives the clown car.

But Ben Carson is a clown, and he won't be able to hide his big red nose and floppy shoes in the general election.

[pnwmom]

22. That's what I would have thought before Bedtime-for-Bonzo-Ronnie. n/t

[geek tragedy]

24. In terms of political skill, none of these guys

could carry Reagan's jockstrap.

[pnwmom]

27. We shall see. Trump seems to be showing some political skills.

He certainly has developed a following. Not everyone can do that.

[tkmorris]

33. But with that, you've identified the core Repub problem

"From our perspective, he is crazy. But not from the perspective of Rethug primary voters.

With them, he is entirely mainstream."

That is true, but there is an ever increasing ideological divide between the people who vote in Republican primaries and, well, everyone else. He could well win the nomination if all things were equal and that is precisely why the big money (R) guys are petrified of him. He would get absolutely clobbered in the general, since everyone other than fringe Repub voters can see that he is batshit crazy. No amount of Koch brother money can change that, and I strongly suspect they wouldn't even bother to try.

No, the strategy of the Kochs and everyone else (excepting Sheldon Adelson of course, he's nuttier than Carson) is to get someone on the ticket they have a chance of selling to the sane but relatively uninformed murky middle. Walker fits the bill, as does Jeb. Kasich probably does too since so one but Ohioans and political junkies know who he is, but he's an awful candidate I think. Christie would have been great last cycle, but he's poison now. I think anyone else on the list cannot possibly win and they know it. They will unite to destroy anyone but Bush or Walker that threatens to rise to the top. Mark my words.

[madinmaryland]

19. Honestly, I think Michael Steele has a better chance than Ben Carson does of being President.

I think Carson's views are far too reactionary to become a real candidate. He may be able to make a showing in the race, but I don't think he really has much of a chance, just as Herman Cain didn't gain much traction four years ago.

BTW, your last P.S. is explains perfectly the lunacy of the party once aligned with Lincoln and Eisenhower and why they will always have difficulty winning elections.

[pnwmom]

23. Except Bedtime-for-Bonzo-Ronnie won. Twice. n/t

[lancer78]

41. yes

But you also need to remember that he was a governor of a very populous state as well. Reagan was a proven politician.

[hamsterjill]

21. As a lifelong Texan who saw George W. Bush elected over and over and over again...

I never underestimate ANY idiot that has enough money to run for office.

We beat them by being sane, and by taking that sanity to the voting booth.

[LittleBlue]

25. He's unfailingly polite

A bit charismatic too. I take him very seriously as a threat.

[pnwmom]

26. Yes. And I think his little bit of humor at the end of the debate went over well.

He's had experience dealing with the media on his book tours.

He's not the total newbie some people think.

[Hoyt]

28. I agree. We are one financial crisis, one big terrorist attack here, etc., away from just

about any right wing lunatic having a chance.

I still believe Kerry was about to beat bush in 2004 until Bin Laden released another video the Friday before the election.

There are lots of right wing, gun loving, war mongers in this country.

[pnwmom]

29. Thanks for the reminder about Kerry! Yes, we were a hairs-breadth away from winning that election

when the Bin Laden video got released.

[KamaAina]

30. "But he has no religious views himself."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernie_Sanders#Religion

Sanders has said he is "proud to be Jewish", but "not particularly religious."

So he does have some religious views, just not particularly strong ones.

[pnwmom]

31. As I said, he's not anti-religious. Which is a good thing, for a politician.

He'd alienate the majority of voters in both parties if he was.

On the other hand, he can't really speak to the voters for whom religion is important (except on other issues, of course). So there's a sort of missing link. Hopefully, the rest of his character will overcome that. As long as none of his team start sounding as anti-religion as some people on DU . . .

[ram2008]

32. Carson gives me the heeby jeebys

Something is just off with him and doesn't feel right...

There's just something very petrifying about the way he speaks so softly and calmly as he's speaking insane ideas. Reminds me of those murderous psychopaths you see on documentaries... I feel like he is bordering on insanity and will snap at any moment.

[pnwmom]

34. That's because you are actually listening to his words. Many of those who are put off

by Trump, and his boastful, loud bragging, will respond to Carson's quiet superficial politeness. They won't be listening to what he says, anymore than they were to Sarah Palin's gibberish. They will be influenced by his affect -- which, especially by comparison with Trumps, will seem normal.

[BlueStater]

35. Was Reagan really considered a "laughingstock" by Democrats?

I've been hearing this a lot lately in regards to be people comparing him to Trump (and now Carson) and I don't think that's true. Reagan was a two term governor of the most populated state in the country, easily winning two elections there. He nearly defeated the incumbent president for his party's nomination in 1976. I seriously doubt any Democrat was laughing at him in 1980 and knew that he could easily defeat Carter (and, sadly, did indeed). I think these comparisons between him and Trump and Carson have no merit.

[pnwmom]

36. Yes. He was considered a joke to many, a grade B movie actor who'd starred in a movie with a monkey.

Reagan had two previous failed attempts at winning the Presidency: in 1968, in a “stop Nixon” effort; and in 1976 when he challenged incumbent Gerald Ford. By his third Presidential run, many Dems incorrectly viewed him as a perennial candidate without a serious chance.

And this is the kind of “popular” governor he was in California, during the protests of the Vietnam era.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ronald_Reagan

Reagan was involved in high-profile conflicts with the protest movements of the era. On May 15, 1969, during the People's Park protests at UC Berkeley, Reagan sent the California Highway Patrol and other officers to quell the protests, in an incident that became known as "Bloody Thursday", resulting in the death of student James Rector and the blinding of carpenter Alan Blanchard.[82][83] Reagan then called out 2,200 state National Guard troops to occupy the city of Berkeley for two weeks to crack down on the protesters.[82] A year after "Bloody Thursday", Reagan responded to questions about campus protest movements saying, "If it takes a bloodbath, let's get it over with. No more appeasement."[84] When the Symbionese Liberation Army kidnapped Patty Hearst in Berkeley and demanded the distribution of food to the poor, Reagan joked to a group of political aides about a botulism outbreak contaminating the food.[85] Conversely, in that one afternoon, "Bloody Thursday", 111 police officers were injured, including one C.H.P. officer who was knifed in the chest. After calling in the National Guard, the Guard remained in Berkeley for 17 days, camping in People's Park, and demonstrations subsided as the University removed cordoned-off fencing and placed all development plans for People's Park on hold.[82][86]

[Kilgore]

37. Your post nails it

I'm old enough to remember the dynamics back then, and Carson could possibly follow the same path as Reagan.

We may all be surprised in six months.

Kilgore

[CanadaexPat]

38. Carson is the only one I see shared from my facebook friends.

It's odd. I had assumed it was a bit of defensiveness - 'we like black people too'

[n2doc]

39. That nutcase has no chance

Zero. Zilch. Nada.

Anyone who thinks that he has a chance is really deluding themselves. He is a nutcase with nothing other than a nice backstory to lean on. He is being propped up by RW hate radio, but even they can't do that much. He has no ground game, no realistic policies he can run on that aren't already covered by the others, and no experience in politics. This latter is important because if he does become more than a nuisance he will be taken down by the others who have experience.

Reagan, don't forget, was a two term Governor and had been in the national spotlight for 2 decades prior to winning in 1980. Stepping stones are needed. And even Reagan knew how to cloud his extremist views in soft language acceptable to those casually listening to him. Carson doesn't.

[XRubicon]

40. You mean this guy?

http://www.slate.com/blogs/xx_factor/2015/08/17/ben_carson_fetal_tissue_gop_presidential_candidate_is_also_willing_to_attack.html


Pretty sure there is no chance of him going anywhere except back to his old job.