Where the Senate stands on the Iran deal

[n2doc]

Congress has until mid-September to review the nuclear deal President Obama just signed with Iran. Lawmakers will vote on a yes-or-no resolution that could give the deal the go-ahead -- or halt it at least temporarily.

Obama has vowed to veto any "no" vote or effort to dilute a deal that he says will keep Iran from building a bomb. But because an agreement was reached just before the August recess, opponents of the agreement have two months to rally support for their side and try to gather the two-thirds majorities required to overcome that veto.

Which is where we come in. Will Congress get the two-thirds it needs? At least in the Senate, we can glean something of an idea of where things stand.

So we've begun monitoring all the senators' comments on the issue and classifying them accordingly. Be sure to bookmark this page for the latest updates. We'll update this whip count regularly.

And if we miss anything or classify a senator wrongly, make sure to let us know via e-mail.

Current state of play
(Updated 7:57 a.m. on Aug. 11)

Yes or leaning yes (34 needed to uphold veto, keep the deal): 29

No or leaning no (67 needed to override veto, kill the deal): 58

Unknown/unclear: 13

more

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/07/14/whip-count-where-the-senate-stands-on-the-iran-deal/

Surprised to see Wyden on the Leaning No list. I guess he has really gone over to the dark side.

[geek tragedy]

1. It's going to be very, very, very close.

Somewhere between 32-35 votes to uphold a veto.

Cardin is the key.

There aren't any reliable pro-diplomacy votes remaining uncommitted. The uncommitted ones are all "get tough with Iran" types.

[lamp_shade]

2. The 13 undecideds are all Dems with the exception of Flake

[geek tragedy]

3. Dems, but more are hardliners when it comes to Iran.

If we get 6/13 that would be a major accomplishment.

[lamp_shade]

4. 12 Dems Undecided + 4 Dems leaning No = 16 Dems on the fence.

FYI - "The Hill" has their own Whip Count which differs slightly from WP (e.g. they have Reed as a Yes).
Here's a link...
http://thehill.com/blogs/floor-action/senate/247956-the-hills-whip-list-senators-take-sides-on-iran-deal

[geek tragedy]

5. Crooked Bob Menendez is not on the fence. He's already decided to vote against the deal.

Ron Wyden takes his cues from Rand Paul when it comes to foreign policy, international relations and national security.

Peters? Eh.

Coons, Mikulski, Murray, Cardin, are all hardliners on Iran. Combine that with the DINOs like Heitkamp, Donnelly, Warner and it get queasy pretty quickly.

[pampango]

6. I heard that the House may be the firewall for the Iran deal since the Democrats there

are more likely to uphold a veto than are the Democrats in the Senate.

[PoliticAverse]

7. If Pelosi is right that she has the votes in the House then the Senate doesn't matter. n/t

[n2doc]

8. I would feel better not testing that assertion. n/t

[davidpdx]

9. I'm not at all surprised to see Wyden on the leaning list

It is very possible he will side with Chuck Schumer. Wyden has already messed up big by supporting fast track. I don't have much hope he'll for for the deal.

[6chars]

10. after seeing the response to Schumer's announcement

some of the leaners may lean back the other way

[davidpdx]

11. Maybe the backlash from D's will get them onboard

I hope so.