PPP: Post-debate, Trump has strong lead in Iowa

[Adrahil]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_IA_81015.pdf

Trumpster at 19. Carson, Walker, Bush, and surging Fiorina cluster 7-9 points behind. Cruz is nipping at their heels. Rand Paul tumbles. He's done, I think. He's even behind Huck. The rest are scraping the basement floor for scraps.

If some of the lower tier candidates start dropping off, they may feed into the not-Trump candidates.

[Mass]

1. More media. More name recognition. Better results in polling.

No big surprise. Same for Fiorina. Finally, people talk about her. Her number go up.

[Adrahil]

3. Mebbe....

I think it's more than simply name recognition at this point.

[geek tragedy]

4. real question is whether these people will turn out in the cold to caucus.

I suspect the answer is "hell no."

Candidates without an organization don't do well in Iowa. This is still Walker's to lose.

[JI7]

11. yes but a dem who got attention for something similar

Would result in that candidate going down in polls.

[geek tragedy]

2. McCain tanked Iowa in 2008, so it's not essential to win there.

Obviously better to win than lose there, of course.

[Adrahil]

5. Yeah, I agree. But it is an indication that Trump's...

outrageous comments don't seem to have hurt him with his supporters.

Plus, it's important to recognize that since Trump is leading with only a 19% share of the vote, that mean 4 outta 5 Pugs in Iowa don't want him. I think he's probably at his peak, but we'll see.

[geek tragedy]

6. I would be surprised if his turnout matched his polling numbers nt

[Adrahil]

8. I can't decide.

Part of me agrees, but another part says that these idiots will really vote for him...

[geek tragedy]

9. are they motivated enough to trudge out in -10 degree weather? nt

[tanyev]

7. It's YOOOOOOOGE!

[Agschmid]

10. I agree about Rand.

[JI7]

12. rand paul would be better off focusing on nh

I would like to see a detailed poll about trump supporters.

My guess is that is mostly angry men who like him attacking minorities and at the same time admire his being wealthy and wish to be like him.