The real reason Trump won't commit to backing GOP nominee

[Adenoid_Hynkel]

As long as he has the possibility of a third party run, he gets to keep being the center of attention long after his campaign flops.

He'll milk the "Will he or won't he?" playacting, as far as a third party, run well into next summer, before ultimately deciding against it. And the media will be starstruck and play into his game, as usual.

Third party runs are too much work and too expensive, and he's not that serious about it.

But having the GOP nominee kiss his ass and beg him not to run, he'll get off on that for months.

On the bright side, Dems will have no hard work linking the inevitable GOP nominee to Trump, when grovel to him all spring and summer.

[SheilaT]

1. I am semi convinced that if he sees he has not real chance at the nomination

he'll go the Third Party route. He's so rich, so insulated from what most of us consider real life, that he will honestly believe that a Third Party challenge will be successful. He's sufficiently inside a bubble that he simply won't get that by doing that he'll split the Republican vote and guarantee that the Democratic nominee will win.

I'm not totally convinced this will happen, but I see it as a plausible scenario.

[LAGC]

2. Precisely. His ego is way too big to be deflated now.

He's all in. Once he gets sniped by the GOP Establishment, he's not going to roll over without a fight.

Pass the fucking popcorn, next summer is going to be epic!

[greymattermom]

3. He's in it to stop the other clowns

He knows, as a businessman, that he'd be better off if a Democrat wins. He also thinks he'd be better off if he won, because, he's the Donald.

[Live and Learn]

6. That is what I think too except I don't think he even wants to be President.

I think he just wants to stop the GOP from winning and boost his own image while doing it. I don't think the idea of a 3rd Bush Presidency appeals to Trump at all. Can never be sure with Trump but I just can't believe he would really have any interest in being President.

[SheilaT]

26. I'm going to politely disagree.

It's my observation (and I know my anecdotal experience isn't necessarily very compelling) that many business people, many investment people, all seriously believe the line about Republicans being better for business. They never quite connect the dots to notice things like how stock markets decline when we have a Republican president, and go up when there's a Dem in the WH.

Believing the Republican lies is why so many people vote for them.

[davidn3600]

4. But how many voters will play his game?

I don't see him being a Ross Perot effect and taking votes away from the Republican nominee.. (Actually according to Rachel Maddow, Perot didn't really benefit Clinton that much in 1993).

The GOP hates Hillary too much to not vote against her. They will unify against her and trump will end up with some miniscule percentage not have much effect unless its a razor close election.

[BlueMTexpat]

9. If you are interested in more info on the 1992 election,

please see this: http://www.pollingreport.com/hibbitts1202.htm

[ericson00]

10. while I don't mean to attack you because of the myth's seeming ubiquity,

how the hell is the Ross Perot myth still on Democratic leaning websites? If I went on a Republican site, Redstate or FreeRepublican, and debunked the "effect" of Ross Perot, a pro-choice pro-gun-control anti-NAFTA non-conservative, I would get banned.

While I'm not trying to hijack this thread about Donald Trump, given how popular the Perot-spoiler myth is despite several recent debunkings by Maddow, Kornacki, Nate Silver, etc. (and even an increasing amount of Republicans amount of debunkings), the devil is in the data: all the data is linked to in a thread I wrote a bit ago. These kinds of myths damage presidencies: Clinton might have gotten a lot more done had he gotten 50% of the vote in his elections, even tho in both of them he would've still won in Perot's absence, per the actual data/numbers/stats that exist, rather than GOP wishful thinking. It also damages a party when the opponent's narratives take root, especially the non-true ones. The Perot-myth precedent and its uses inspired the "Obama's a Kenyan-born Muslim" in that it was meant to delegitimize. It was used in the same way.

There are two versions of the Perot myth: one is that he was a siphoner, which the numbers smash to pieces. Once that gets debunked, its proponents move to "oh he weakened Bush and created a bad atmosphere, and caused approval rating problems." That's actually a plaigiarism of what Jimmy Carter currently still believes and what some Democrats believed in the early '80s. Good thing our party wisened up tho. Makes sense: both Bush Sr. in 1992 and Carter in 1980 had cratered approvals and primary challenges too.

[Adrahil]

22. I bet he pulls at LEAST 10%, almost all from the GOP nominee.

The Teapublicans are not known for thinking rationally about anything.

[tblue37]

5. Trump never let's *any* slight go unanswered and, if he can manage it, unpunished. nt

[Historic NY]

14. He cetainly won't leave 30% hanging on the vine...

he'll pick them and take them to his own campaign.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

23. how could the establishment stop him if he has 30%?

[Raster]

7. Go to THE REAL WORLD Dictionary... look up Media Whore.

[mariawr]

8. Since the Big Dog is reported to have talked to Trump...

I think he is in it to help Hillary win.

[ericson00]

12. as much as the idea smells of media rumour

if he really were, and it worked, he's make Karl Rove look like Bob Shrum.

[SheilaT]

27. Why would the Donald

do all this in order to help Hillary win? That makes no sense at all. His ego is far too great. He's in it, for however long he remains, for himself. I think he honestly believes he can become President, if not by winning the Republican nomination, by making an Independent run.

It will be rather interesting to listen to his excuses along the way as to why he was robbed of the nomination or of the election.

[ericson00]

11. I think its to scare the party and Fox into letting him even debate

because since the GOP has either convinced themselves of the Perot-myth, and/or really know the truth about Nader (a real spoiler), they have no choice but to let him debate, be among real politicos, etc. They know that if Trump gets his shake and implodes, he has no basis to run 3rd party, or if he did, he'd have little support. If he were to be locked out, then because since his 3rd party bid becomes against "the man," its much stronger. Trump is an amazing politician for a neophyte whose never sought any office aside from that which he inherited from Fred Trump.

[RoccoR5955]

17. Nader was not a spoiler

It was the Supremes Court who appointed Bush president!

[dembotoz]

13. Depends on how he is treated by the GOP..if he feels a fair shot...no problem

If rinse penis and company obviously screw him???
As they are apt to do??


Granny bar the doors

[Laura PourMeADrink]

20. Well...here it seems people are assuming he maintains his current big lead and then gets screwed.

Exactly how could they do that? If, by legitimate votes, he wins primary after primary, what can Rinse do?

I think he would have a case for a third party if he has the voters.

A more likely scenario is that he takes a dive and others start winning primaries. It would have to be pretty catastrophic if people still like him now, after the shit he's done and said already. In that case, I doubt he would go third party. He backed down last time once he started losing support - it was due to his craziness over Obama's birth certificate, right? He's a businessman and I can't see him wasting money - knowing it's in vain

[Cosmocat]

15. Nope

This is like the posts here for a long time with people adamant Hill wasn't running for President.

He is full out in now, he has gotten too much interest and thinks he can win, either as the R candidate or as a third party candidate.

AND, he is far from a long shot to NOT be the R candidate.

[RoccoR5955]

16. I hope he runs

It will guarantee a Democratic win!

[DCBob]

18. He might run third party if he sees some advantage to his ego.

Which it could.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

21. Well, he didn't pursue it last time he was high and then took a dive.

[DCBob]

24. This feels different this time.

Well shall see.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

25. Yes, different in that it has sustained longer than last time. But, I don't see

what the RNC could do if to harm him if he maintains this huge lead - I mean, enough for him to pull out. If he wins primaries - what can they do about that?

Think people are confusing him going third party with a huge lead *he has no reason to do...with him going third if his lead drops way down *which I think he is smart enough to realize if he crashes and can't win - no need to throw money at it.

Now another scenario is that he loses primaries by a very narrow margin and it is coupled with some shady treatment of some sort. This could make him go third...and his people may be angry enough to go along with him which would be great for us. But...he would become the pariah of all the other Republicans. Not sure, even with his ego, he would want to do.

[Vinca]

19. A possible third party run was the best news to come out of the debate.

I would almost bet on it if they piss Trump off too much. That would, of course, keep Dems in the White House.