What Will Be the Most Important Issues in 2016?

[MineralMan]

For the last couple of months, I've been watching for the first major polling companies ranked list of the most important issues for the 2016 Presidential Election. So far, Gallup and the other polling companies haven't issued their usual list. You can find the lists for 2008, 2012 and 2014, but there's no list yet for 2016.

That list always is a good way to look at candidates from both parties to see how things are likely to go. I suppose it's too early for the list to be created yet, since the nominees aren't apparent yet. Still, it would be nice to see what the population is really concerned about most right now.

I suspect that the list DUers would make is not the same as the list that will eventually emerge, after polling the general voting public. For example, here are some big issues on DU that I don't think will make the cut for 2016:

1. TPP - A big issue on DU, I don't think it's much on the minds of most people. It's discussed by politics wonks and various pundits, but doesn't seem to be registering on the general population. People don't know what it is, and how it will affect them, since it doesn't really exist in any final form yet. I'm betting this doesn't show up on the top ten issue list for the 2016 general election.

2. Iraq War - Another Du favorite issue, how candidates voted on this long ago might be important to many DUers, but doesn't seem to be much on the minds of most people. Iraq as an issue is pretty much tired and forgotten. Odds are that both nominees will either have voted for the IWR or were in favor of it. It's a non-player, I think.

3. Keystone Pipeline - Another hot-button issue on DU, it's almost unknown by most people. Oil? We burn that stuff, and can't live without it, so how it moves around isn't that interesting. People here in Minnesota, where hundreds of oil trains pass through the state, are just becoming aware that those trains could be dangerous. Most people shrug about this one.

4. Gay Marriage, etc. - This one's over. Nobody cares any more. Everyone can get married, so nobody's thinking about this any longer. Marriage equality proved to be a non-issue for people's real lives, and even the GOOPers have quit talking about it.

Those are four I don't think are going to play into people's decisions in November 2016. There are probably others, but that's a starting list.

What will be important to people? What issues will really make the grade? I think it's the regular old issues, like:

1. The Economy/Jobs - Does it suck? Is it improving? How people feel about this will be a major campaign topic and one of concern to most voters. That's always the #1 issue in presidential election years.

2. Minimum Wage - This one's going to be in play with voters, and will be one where the Democrats and Republicans take very different positions.

3. Heath Care -Republicans hate ObamaCare. Democrats think it's OK. Let's fight about it.

4. Global Warming/Climate Change - Believe it or don't, the Republicans are deniers and the Democrats are believers. This is a straight party-line issue, mostly. But it will be in all the speeches.

5. Immigration/Xenophobia - Pretty much a party-line issue, too, except that a helluva lot of people are afraid of Muslims from both sides. Watch for this one to be a hot-button issue in the campaigns.


So, what do you think? What issues do you thing will really be important to voters next year? We'll find out at some point, when the pollsters finally issue their top ten lists.

[still_one]

1. Social Security, Medicare, a women's right to choose, civil rights and health care

should be the top of any list.

[PatrickforO]

2. Your list is great. If these are the issues, our quality of life may take an uptick.

Particularly on the economy, because Bernie has elevated this dialog to include fixing the corporate tax code so companies like Boeing actually begin paying US income tax, and then use that money for an infrastructure program that creates jobs.

The only addition I hope makes it is expanding Social Security. I'm going to need it, and the truth people DON'T realize is that it is solvent as is until 2037, but if we wanted to fix it for good, all we'd have to do is remove the payroll tax cap for earners who make $113K and up. Then we're good to go.

As to healthcare, most of us want Medicare for all Americans, which is what the Dems should have ramrodded through in 2009 when they had the chance.

I basically support the Dream Act and think we need a sane policy.

Both Clinton and Sanders have come out with positions on climate change, which is great.

[HFRN]

3. if it's Bush vs Clinton, then 'Oligarchy' will be the No 1 issue in 2016 nt

[frazzled]

4. Believe it or not

I think it may be Climate Change. I think people are finally starting to get it, and proactive policies vs denial will be central. I think continued improvement of the economy/jobs (vs. sliding back into the policies that got us into trouble in the first place) will be of equal importance, but I think we will be focused this time on issues of income inequality and infrastructure spending.

That is for the general election.

In primaries Republicans still will be trying to defund Obamacare and railing against immigrants. Democrats (such as they are) may be focused on a range of issues, but will all have approximately the same positions on the issues voters care about most (which I think will be Climate Change, Economy/Jobs, Women, and Race).

[cascadiance]

5. I think that #1 on your first list overlaps with #1 and #5 on second list...

... and if #1 on your second list starts getting closer scrutiny and people start realizing that the race to the bottom that is enabled by the TPP and other similar trade agreements, as well as the H-1B and other guest worker programs that look to be pushed in front of real immigration reform when expansion of these programs are expanded in riders to immigration bills, people will realize that these are all interconnected, and start seeing where we are being manipulated and where we need to focus change happening.

For us to fix our economy and jobs, there are a number of things such as really getting out of or completely reforming the existing trade "agreements" which should be TREATIES and passed/not passed as such to ensure that they don't just serve the corporate few. Candidates need to be pushed on how they would ensure that the TPP and other trade agreements that many of them avoid talking about or support, as well as H-1B and H-2B/2A programs that are pushed that candidates like Hillary Clinton has supported don't get in the way of our economic recovery.

Many of us were against the immigration bill as it was written back in the previous congress because of it's inclusion of H-1B expansion, even though we HEAVILY support the other immigration reforms of the bill to help those here get citizenship, etc. which should be the focus of a clean bill next time.

At the same time, we need to ensure that any legislation that we do pass or not pass is not due to just xenophobic concerns. If we can push the xenophobes to one side of the fence opposite of where we want the legislation to go, then we should get some decent stuff passed.

i myself have had my career totally hosed by the effects of H-1B program, as i've been on many contracts, etc. instead of a decent permanent job that used to be so much more available in earlier times, and will be once again looking for jobs next week when out of work again then. That is a primo issue for me and many in my field.

[HFRN]

15. 'i myself have had my career totally hosed by the effects of H-1B program,'

yup - totally get that

my first reaction to it was 'my own party wouldn't really do this to me'

yes, they would - again and again

the harm you and I experienced was not an 'accident'

"In politics, nothing happens by accident. If it happens, you can bet it was planned that way."

Franklin D. Roosevelt

[Gothmog]

6. I would add voting rights to your list

There is a clear and distinct difference between the two parties in this area. The Democrats favor the right to vote and the GOP want to suppress the right to vote. Hillary Clinton's speech in Houston earlier this summer set up this issue and depending on the candidate, this could be a fun issue. Jeb purged voters in 2000 to help his brother. Walker is the king of voter suppression. This could be a good issue to pursue

[MineralMan]

7. Good addition!

[Gothmog]

10. BTW, O'Malley came out with a good idea today on amending constitution

I still think that changing the SCOTUS is the easiest way to get rid of Citizens United

[Agnosticsherbet]

8. What I see now is the people's sense of alienation from their government

Last edited Tue Aug 4, 2015, 06:00 PM - Edit history (1)

Populist candidates are doing well on both sides, Sanders and Trump.

They are expressions people both sides seeing government failing the people.

I don't expect anyone to call it that, but I think it is a bigger issue than anyone realizes.

[hifiguy]

9. The increasingly dysfunctional and

fucked up economy has to be Number One, and that covers your #1 and#2 as well as a bunch of sub-issues like plutocracy, progressive taxation, the social "safety net" and a load of others; it will eclipse most other issues because it is a universal affecting every person in the country and because it SHOULD be the big issue.

Climate change should logically be next.

I think you're pretty much on the nose in terms of where the argument time will be spent.

[edhopper]

11. what ever drummedup phoney issue the GOP

is hawking that the obediant MSM will keep alive while ignoring real issues.

[Gothmog]

12. One more addition-control over the SCOTUS for the next generation

The SCOTUS has a great deal of influence on our lives and the next POTUS will be able to control the direction of the SCOTUS for the next generation if they put on three or four good nominees

[Comrade Grumpy]

13. Let's see what happens in the Middle East between now and November 2016.

Foreign policy isn't a major concern of most voters, but war can be.

[HFRN]

14. well, it won't be H-1b visa, as anyone who cares about it gets labeled a 'Xenophobe'

which is quite convenient for those who sell out to the billionaire$

[cascadiance]

16. Those who equivalence being against H-1B expansion as being "xenophobic" should look here...

... at this article/interview done in San Jose on H-1B body shops.

http://www.nbcbayarea.com/investigations/Silicon-Valleys-Body-Shop-Secret-280567322.html

The persons making that equivalence should be asked if the Indian gentleman being interviewed in this piece who is also against how the H-1B program is being run is "xenophobic" that would explain why he doesn't like the H-1B program too.

H-1B is like the trade agreements in that they are tools to help the race to the bottom. By pushing these programs, the government also pulls back on helping people get expeditious handling of requests for real immigration and naturatlization as immigrants here too. I know personally some of my best friends from places like Persia who have had to wait many years and go through many hoops to get citizenship here. We should be focused on helping that process than the exploitive programs like H-1B and "free trade" agreements.