First one coming off the African coast for 2015 - very early notice from NOAA

[malaise]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave accompanied by a weak low pressure system is
producing an area of showers and thunderstorms a couple of hundred
miles southeast of the Cape Verde Islands. Environmental
conditions are expected to be at least marginally conducive for
some slow development through the weekend while the disturbance
moves westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
---------------------------------------------------------
No need to worry for now but are you ready for the season?

[daleanime]

1. No....

but it's on the way anyways.

[tkmorris]

2. The Atlantic is dry as a bone in front of it

I know how odd that sounds but it's true. The air is so dry in the mid-Atlantic right now I don't see any Cape Verde storms surviving it. It looks to me that any threats to the Caribbean or mainland US are more likely to be homegrown systems.

[Baitball Blogger]

3. What is the usual time frame for something like this to actually

become a factor for us?

[tkmorris]

4. 7-10 days to the mainland

4-7 for the islands. There is plenty of room for individual storms to vary of course.

[malaise]

5. There are some things to watch

1. Formation chance - we should start watching in five days - if that's increasing it's time to watch seriously. 2. We also need to watch the speed of the system - sometimes it stops - other times it rushes across the water. 3. Pay attention to the models.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2015/invest-94L?map=model&MR=1

It's way too early to know where this is going or even if it will go - but it is never too early to know where you are going if the worse were to happen. Do you have emergency supplies; food, medical, etc. Have you trimmed trees; where will you store outdoor furniture, etc if needs be. And are all you documents secure and protected from water. Do you have a car charger for your cell phone? I even have a coffee brewer in my car. Fuel up all your vehicles and so on. Buy batteries before they raise the price

[dixiegrrrrl]

6. Was just remarking it had been 10 years since we got hit.

Luckily I now live where all that hurricane prep is not necessary.
But now where all that POST hurricane prep is not needed...lack of power will be a pain.