Whip count on Iran nuclear deal indicates 50% chance Congress will completely kill the deal

[geek tragedy]

(note: this focuses on the Senate. If the Senate falls, presumably the House will be easier for the Republicans due to their huge majority there).

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2015/07/14/whip-count-where-the-senate-stands-on-the-iran-deal/

Long story short:

58 Senators, including 'Democrats' like Chuck Schumer, are already likely to vote to override Obama's veto, kill the Iran nuclear deal, and pave the way to a regional war with Iran.

Only 26 Senators are leaning towards voting to sustain Obama's veto.

16 remain undecided. But, one of those is a Republican, (Flake-AZ) who will NOT be the only Republican to vote with Obama. So count him as a 'no' and the number becomes 59 votes for war with Iran.

With 15 remaining. Team Diplomacy needs to get at least 8 of those undecideds to vote for the deal.

The undecideds/unknown:

Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.): "The stakes are high, and the details of this deal matter."

Sen Cory Booker (D-N.J.): "I will hold this deal to a very high standard and in reaching any conclusion," he said.

Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.): "I will review the details of this agreement promptly, and I will only support it if this deal prevents every Iranian pathway to develop a nuclear weapons capability."

Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.): "There's a lot of questions," he said, adding "I would have strongly preferred an agreement where Iran did not need to do any enrichment," on NPR on July 14.

Sen. Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.): In May, he said: "A nuclear-armed Iran would be one of the most serious threats to our national security interests, and I have long-supported diplomatic efforts, including the ongoing negotiations and sanctions, to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon," and today he is undecided on the Iran deal.

Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.): "First thing is to not tear down this agreement before the ink is even dry, before we even read it. Congress has a role now, by law, and it's to thoroughly scrutinize the details of the agreement."

Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.): "“I will review this agreement with the utmost attention to detail, given the incredible importance of getting an agreement of this magnitude right."

Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.): She's approved tough sanctions on Iran in 2012 but has been quiet on the deal so far. On July 23 she told Politico: "It’s a really busy time around here and people are trying to do other things. And so if you don’t have to decide in the next two days, then people will take their time."

Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.): The moderate Democrat was considering co-sponsoring the Iran review bill but ended up not for fear of scuttling the negotiations. "I’m making sure I’m going to make the right decision, not when I’m going to make it," she told Politico.

Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.): Heitkamp voted for the Iran review bill Congress passed in May, saying: "Iran cannot receive relief from sanctions until it shows it is taking verifiable steps to prevent the development of a nuclear weapon within its borders." She hasn't commented on the deal.

Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.): She's been supportive of the diplomatic negotiations but also wary of a deal: "There are so many unanswered questions on the military dimensions of Iran's nuclear program," she said in May.

Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D-Md.)

Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.): The Democratic leader told Politico it "would take us all a while" to decide.

Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.)

Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.): "As these negotiations move forward, I will monitor them closely to ensure that our national security is protected," he said in May. He told Politico July 23: "We’re going to go to some outside folks too, I don’t just want to hear from the administration."

Klobuchar, Murray and Cantwell will probably vote with the President.

Tester, Heitkamp, Donnelly will probably vote with the Republicans and AIPAC.

So,

Bennet
Booker
Cardin
Coons
McCaskill
Mikulski
Nelson
Warner
Stabenow

hold the key. The President will need to hold onto 5 of those 9 to save the nuclear deal.

Schumer--the presumed next leader of Senate Democrats, voting against the President is going to make this a very close call.

[Comrade Grumpy]

1. That would be idiocy of the highest level.

[geek tragedy]

2. idiocy and cowardice are words frequently associated with Senate Democrats.

There's a reason Congress was meant to have a bare minimum role in foreign policy. As an institution it's incapable of performing a positive role in foreign relations.

[leveymg]

3. I can see this going the way of the League of Nations.

If Hillary or a Republican is elected, I expect the US will be at war in Iran within a year, anyway.

[geek tragedy]

6. if the deal is in place, there won't be much of a chance for war.

if the deal is killed by the Republicans and the Israel lobby, then war is guaranteed

[davidn3600]

10. Unless the deal goes through and Iran cheats

Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, keeps shouting "death to America" and that "America will be defeated" and yesterday tweeted a photo of Obama with a gun to his head.

You really trust these guys not to cheat on this deal?

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2015/07/25/iranian-leader-tweets-graphic-obama-gun-head/30667081/

[geek tragedy]

12. that's why there are inspections. if we weren't worried about them cheating

we wouldn't have made inspections a big part of the deal.

We made several non-proliferation deals with the USSR. Even while they were the "Evil Empire."

[davidn3600]

16. And the Soviets cheated constantly

These type of deals rarely work out. There is no threat to Iran if they violate the deal.

Plus I don't trust governments that are run and controlled by religious fanatics. At least the Soviets were sane. Have you listened to how Iran's leaders talk?

[geek tragedy]

17. So you don't believe in negotiations and you don't believe in inspections

and you don't believe in diplomacy with adversaries.

And you think we should premise everything by treating Iran as if it were Al Qaeda.

Sounds like you want a war to bring about regime change. Unless you have another bright idea.

[leveymg]

14. They are no more irrational that the US, Israel or the Saudis. Probably less.

For Iran, a war would be self-defeating and an existential threat. Not nearly enough so for Netanyahu, Hillary, Jeb, or Salman, I am afraid.

[Fred Sanders]

4. 58, tops, is not 60.

[geek tragedy]

5. They only need to get 9 of the 16 undecideds and they'll be able to override.

One of the undecideds is a Republican, and we know how that will go.

AIPAC has won virtually every legislative fight--it's lost only twice--one under Reagan and once under George HW Bush.

It didn't lose once under Clinton, not once under George W Bush.

Will it lose under Obama?

[Fred Sanders]

7. Corker has talked the Tea Party rhetoric but his overall behavior and votes say he dances with another.

[geek tragedy]

8. Corker to Kerry: "You've been Fleeced" on Iran deal

http://www.cnn.com/2015/07/23/politics/john-kerry-senate-iran-nuclear-deal/

Corker likes to play the moderate Republican, but he's a hardcore war pig just like everyone else in that party.

[Fred Sanders]

9. I really, honestly do not like clipped quoted words used to complete a sentence and imply the thoughts of another as a point of debate

[geek tragedy]

11. There is no way any Republican is going to vote with President Obama and against AIPAC.

Not going to happen, period.

Corker took off his mask at that hearing. This is who he is. You can review every word from that hearing transcript, and you won't find one indicating he's even willing to consider voting to uphold a veto.

There is no such thing as a moderate Republican anymore.

Being unreasonable is part of their job description.

[krawhitham]

13. They will not override in the House

They would need 42 Dems to vote with the rethugs in the House. With the Senate they only need 12 turn coats

Pelosi is fully is support and working for votes, has she ever failed to get the total votes needed?

[geek tragedy]

15. 42 Democrats in the House is easier than it sounds.

Last edited Sun Jul 26, 2015, 03:25 PM - Edit history (1)

Add up the ConservaDems and the squishy moderates and then the AIPAC darlings from NYC, Long Island etc. Engel, Steve Israel, Naddler, Sherman, Schiff,etc.

[Cali_Democrat]

18. Psssssst------------------>>>

http://thehill.com/policy/national-security/249265-senate-dems-positive-on-iran-deal

Good news!