Fukushima Daiichi: It May Be Too Late Unless the Military Steps In

[kpete]

Fukushima Daiichi: It May Be Too Late Unless the Military Steps In
By Akio Matsumura, Finding the Missing Link
17 May 12


The highly radioactive spent fuel assemblies at the Fukushima-Daiichi power plants present a clear threat to the people of Japan and the world. Reactor 4 and the nearby common spent fuel pool contain over 11,000 highly radioactive spent fuel assemblies, many of which are exposed to the open air. The cesium-137, the radioactive component contained in these assemblies, present at the site is 85 times larger than the amount released during the Chernobyl accident. Another magnitude 7.0 earthquake would jar them from their pool or stop the cooling water, which would lead to a nuclear fire and meltdown. The nuclear disaster that would result is beyond anything science has ever seen. Calling it a global catastrophe is no exaggeration.

.....................

The following leaves little to question:

Many scientists believe that it will be impossible to remove the 1,535 fuel assemblies in the pool of Reactor 4 within two or three years.

Japanese scientists give a greater than 90 percent probability that an earthquake of at least 7.0 magnitude will occur in the next three years in the close vicinity of Fukushia-Daiichi.

The crippled building of Reactor 4 will not stand through another strong earthquake.

Japan and the TEPCO do not have adequate nuclear technology and experience to handle a disaster of such proportions alone.

..........................

Terrifying that it appears Ron Wyden is the only person with any power at all paying attention to Fukishima. Senator Ron Wyden of Oregon wrote a letter to Japan’s Ambassador to the United States, Mr. Ichiro Fujisaki, on April 16, 2012, discussing his fact-finding trip to the Fukushima Daiichi site:

Senator Wyden, senior member of the United States Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, mentioned that “the scope of damage to the plants and to the surrounding area was far beyond what he expected and the scope of the challenge to the utility owner, the government of Japan, and to the people of the region are daunting.” He also mentioned that “TEPCO’s December 21, 2011 remediation roadmap proposes to take up to ten years to complete spent fuel removal from all of the pools on the site. Given the compromised nature of these structures due to the events of March 11, their schedule carries extraordinary and continuing risk if further severe seismic events were to occur.”


Much more:
http://readersupportednews.org/opinion2/303-211/11472-fukushima-daiichi-it-may-be-too-late-unless-the-military-steps-in

[northoftheborder]

1. This needs to stay on the home page.

[TheWraith]

4. It needs to remain in the trash, where it belongs.

It's fact-free pseudoscientific crap.

[DisgustipatedinCA]

7. According to the Naval Nuclear Power School I attended, you're dead wrong

Play the part of "the adult in the room" at your own peril.

[AtheistCrusader]

10. So, you're familiar with the various uranium fires that have occurred around the world

and the manner in which this material is spread by a fire?

It's bad times for a goodly chunk of Japan, for sure. No arguments there. That's about the end of it.

[Doremus]

15. "It's bad times for a goodly chunk of Japan ... That's about the end of it." - AtheistCrusader

So most of Japan can go up in flames and it gets a disinterested shrug from you?

Everything's dandy as long as we're untouched?

I don't know how else to read your statements.

[AtheistCrusader]

27. The article raises two issues.

One, that it is a massive global issue, which it likely isn't. This is a modification of the 'building 4 is going to collapse any moment' meme that went around months and months ago. When it didn't happen, now they have modified the story.

I'll say nothing about the meltdown hydrovolcanic explosions, and how hyperbole and fearmongering HARMS productive discourse on shutting down nuclear power worldwide, gracefully, as better sources are available.


The second issue the article raises is sending in the military. For why? Do we want them to bomb it? They could certainly ask for the US to send in the Army Corps of Engineers, who likely might have some really unique ways to shore up the building. But that doesn't seem to be the author's request. It's just a bizarre thing to ask.

[greenman3610]

43. they aren't even crust-yins

[caseymoz]

25. You're wrong, not to mention calloused.

First, no, not even considering what happens to Japan, Korea, China, and other surrounding islands and nations, including the US Aleutians, this is going to take a few years off the mean average life expectancy of everybody else on the planet, in this generation.

And unless something is done before the disaster worsens, life expectancy will continue to be pulled down as these radioactive materials spread across the planet. This is going to worsen over time, and it's not going to be limited to Japan.

Cesium-137 doesn't sound dangerous, until you're informed, as I was, that it decays into a very short-lived gamma emitter. So, it's as bad as uranium and almost as bad as plutonium.

Never mind you shouldn't just relax and write Japan off.

[AtheistCrusader]

28. How big is the east urals radioactive trace?

Does the phrase mean anything to you, I wonder, without googling it?

Yes, this is very bad for Japan, IF the fears come to pass. Which is quite a lot of IF's in a series of IF's.

Similar risk to what would happen in the US, should a major earthquake strike the pantex plant, or Oak Ridge.


I'll ask you as well, what good would sending in the Japanese self defense forces do? Are they to throw bodies at it, like the Soviets did with their 'liquidators'?

[caseymoz]

34. That disaster probably took a month off everyone's life.

Mean average. And it wasn't primarily Cesium-137.

These disasters release materials into the biosphere that have had little or no presence in the whole natural history of the earth.

Look, fellow atheist, I have a some expertise here. Like another poster above, I was also in Navy nuclear power.

Did you read the article that the estimated chance of another major earthquake in the Fukishima area is 90 percent in the next three years? Since it's situated on the "ring of fire," that's not an "if" I would bet against. In fact, that's something close to a certainty.

No, I don't propose throwing the army at it. Not the least because buckets of sand aren't going to help here. You definitely can't throw away lives without a plan.

Come on. In all the old science fiction movies, whenever the world faced a problem like this, they got the best minds together in a think tank to come up with a plan.

I haven't heard anything like that has been tried here. Has it? Was science fiction just that far off about human behavior? Are we just incapable of that? I mean, it has been more than a year already, and it seems like everyone is wringing their hands in paralysis. If we act like this as a species, no way should we be fooling with nuclear power.

[AtheistCrusader]

38. The fuel rods are cold enough

it will soon be possible to remove them from the pools one at a time into temporary sleeves, and then load them into dry casks, without the protection of water during transit. Biggest problem right now is getting the crap out of the way so they can set up a gantry to physically lift them. Tepco is working on exactly that. If I believed the reports about the building failing, I certainly would have stopped believing back when the 'collapse was imminent', and never happened. Another big quake is certainly possible, building collapse is not necessarily an issue, any more than a 8.0+ near any one of our 16 operational GE mark 1 BWR's. The tsunami was irrelevant, the quake broke the cooling systems immediately, peak accelerations near 3g's. None of ours are rated for much more than a 7.0

I'd like to know by what reasoning Kyshtym took a month off everyone's life? I would also like to know, how a fire would spread the material in Fukushima further than the explosion in Kyshtym did?

I don't see any paralysis, but I will agree, this is a power source we need to do away with. That's starting to happen around the world, even if China is an enormous exception.

[caseymoz]

57. It depends if you believe TEPCO or not.

Throughout the first few months of this crisis, they behaved like BP in the Gulf. They continually understated the seriousness of it, and Japanese government followed suit.

Okay, maybe they're born-again honest. They've learned the error of their ways and that prior lying was the old TEPCO and government. Now have stopped fibbing, and you can take their word for it that the rods are cool.

I hope, however, you can see the problem here. For information our primary source are authorities who are unreliable. That gives competing and reviewing sources of information more credibility than them. If people are still taking them at their word and presume they must have things under control, that's definitely a sign of paralysis. Like, "Of course they wouldn't lie about this . . . now."

I didn't mean absolutely "everyone," I meant everyone by mean average. Mostly the reduction in life expectancy is from a miniscule elevation in the worldwide rate of cancers. It might not be a month, it might be a few weeks. Nevertheless, anything that puts radioactive, toxic substances in circulation on the earth, no matter what vector spreads them (air, water, food), is going to have at least a slight, general, negative effect.

It's similar to the fact that frequent-flyer miles expose you to more cosmic radiation. And in fact, it's considered an occupational hazard in the airline industry.

I want to say, disasters like this are probably undetectable in their effect general effect on mortality, unless they can't be brought under control and/or keep happening.

You believe TEPCO and the Japanese government. Frankly, they've been the weakest link in this disaster all along.

[sabrina 1]

39. You know, I think I'll go with Ron Wyden. Airc, before this disaster happened, people, such as

yourself, laughed off anyone who raised questions about Japan's nuclear program. I remember people raising the question about what might happen eg, if there was a tsunami, an earthquake and they were totally mocked and dismissed. Who needed to worry about such things THEN?

Well, the mocked turned out to be right. Were you among those who predicted that this disaster would never happen btw?

If Ron Wyden is worried I am worried. You, I do not know, but he has always done his homework on issues he chooses to speak out about. And he is no alarmist.

[flamingdem]

23. Please google the Brookings Institute report on spent fuel pool fires

They are not a woo woo organization and point to the same dangers

[gateley]

53. I'm sure it's harmless.

[Downwinder]

2. And Nobody Never was there-Nomore

The Hydrogen Dog and the Cobalt Cat
Side by Side in the Armory sat.
Nobody thought about fusion or fission
Everyone spoke of their peacetime mission,
Till somebody came and opened the door.
There they were, in a neutron fog,
The Codrogen Cat and the Hybalt Dog;
They mushroomed up with a terrible roar-
And Nobody Never was there-Nomore

http://www.poee.org/living/GetPage.aspx?ID=171

[xtraxritical]

3. The United Nations and all the nations of the world better get on this ASAP.

[Javaman]

5. damn it.

did you ever read something so scary that everything around you gets quiet?

"I am become death, the destroyer of worlds."
-J. Robert Oppenheimer

[AndyTiedye]

6. k/r

Though it is not clear that anybody else knows how to deal with it either.
It's too hot for robots, let alone people.

[jwirr]

8. Since the scientists have not been able to fix this what is the military going to do? Bomb it?

[Katashi_itto]

20. No, what they need is like what happened at Chernoybl. Suicide squads to go in and clear things

They were called "Bio-Robots" they went in and tried to do as much as the could in the around ninety seconds they had before they had to get out before receiving a lethal does. Even then the "Bio-Robot" units were all sick for weeks, or died dependent on exposure.

One way or another, alot of people are going to die from this.

The reason nothing is being done, is because the Nuke Industry keeps trying to salvage the situation, by pushing it all under the carpet. Instead they are making it far far worse.

[flamingdem]

21. The truth is that they'll have to send in soldiers who will die as a result of radiation exposure

So they are reluctant. The Russians did just this at Chernobyl.

[Dont call me Shirley]

9. And the idiot morons continue to promote their nuclear energy

They like to pretend they are so wise yet they are so willfully ignorant.

[grasswire]

11. was it Wyden who suggested that Americans move away from the West Coast?

....if #4 does go bad?

[magical thyme]

49. Arne Gundersen

although Wyden may also have said the same. He mostly reported back to Congress that we need to get involved.

[felix_numinous]

12. K&R This is an international problem

--I hope that containment gets international help because of the huge scope of this disaster. Please.

[djysrv]

13. Fukushima spent fuel cannot catch on fire or blow up

Led by Will Davis at Atomic Power Review, a group of nuclear bloggers and analysts has crafted response to information posted by Robert Alvarez about spent fuel at Fukushima and the structural integrity of reactor #4.

http://ansnuclearcafe.org/2012/05/16/spent-fuel-at-fukushima-not-dangerous/

Alvarez's first claim is that the reactor building #4 is at risk of collapse. Second, he claims the spent fuel pool could catch on fire.

There are two points to be made. First, Fukushima reactor bldg #4 is not on the verge of collapse. Second, none of the spent fuel pools at Fukushima can catch on fire.

In a piece called Spent Fuel Safer than Asserted published at ANS Nuclear Cafe, a group of nuclear bloggers, writers, and analysts dissected Alvarez's claims and pointed out numerous, serious errors in them.

Reactor Building #4 will not collapse

In the past year TECPO has added massive concrete and steel reinforcements to the #4 reactor. It has removed debris from the building. The building is now stronger than when it was originally constructed 40 years ago. See the blog post at ANS Cafe for the technical details.

Spent fuel pool #4 will not catch on fire

For starters, Alvarez claims there are 10,893 spent fuel assemblies at Fukushima. In fact, there are only 2,724 spent fuel assemblies at all Fukushima reactors and all of them are in conditions which are below the temperature at which fuel cladding could oxidize. The technical details are laid out in the ANS Cafe article.

Alavarez claims, in particular, that if the spent fuel in pool #4 were to lose its cooling water, that the zirconium cladding on the fuel would oxidize and that all of the curies of radioactivity in the fuel would simultaneously be ejected into the open air.

This sequence isn’t possible based on the current condition of the spent fuel at reactor #4 nor is it possible for the other spent fuel stored at Fukushima.

First, the spent fuel isn’t hot enough. It has been out of the reactor long enough that even if all the water was lost, the remaining decay heat would still be below the point of ignition which is 900C for the cladding and 2,880C for the uranium oxide in the fuel.

Second, the fuel has been out of the reactor for more than a year. The fuel has been out of the reactor longer than the point at which it could catch on fire.

# # #

[marions ghost]

16. but what about the earthquake hazard?

is there a response to that?

[FBaggins]

37. Sure

It's easy to claim that there's a high likelihood of another strong quake in the vicinity because there have already been several strong aftershocks (including half a dozen 6-7s at least one of which was just a few miles from the plant). It's ridiculous (irresponsibly dishonest in fact) to claim without any evidence at all that the building can't survive another quake.

In reality all six units survived a very strong quake without any structural damage. It was the explosions that destroyed much of the buildings...and there isn't any reason to believe (and plenty of reason to disbelieve) that anything structural under SFP4 has been compromised. They even strengthened it in the months following the disaster.

[marions ghost]

45. Hilariously irresponsible

to claim another earthquake would not further compromise the plant.

[FBaggins]

48. Do you often require strawmen in order to debate?

Nobody said that an earthquake can't damage the plant. What I did say was that the claim that the structure simply couldn't survive another earthquake is ridiculous on its face. The author says "The crippled building of Reactor 4 will not stand through another strong earthquake."

The reality is that the structural support of the spent fuel pool at unit #4 was in no sense "crippled" It hardly appears damaged at all (and has since been reinforced above the original specifications. One of the largest earthquakes in recorded history did almost no damage and it's extremely dishonest to claim that it can't possibly stand another quake (especially after it has survived several already).

The author make other claims that amount to bald-faced lies... but one this obvious should be sufficient, no?

[magical thyme]

50. no. because the author has actually seen the building, up close and personal

The author is not the only visitor who has actually seen the structure. Senator Wyden and others have described it as having a serious list.

Just because a building has survived several quakes doesn't mean it is dishonest to claim it can't stand another.

Each successive quake further stresses and weakens the structure.

[FBaggins]

51. He's seen them up close?

He's been inside unit 4 and has a structural engineering backgroud sufficient to make the judgement? He had a Schmidt hammer with him and they let him use it?

Just because a building has survived several quakes doesn't mean it is dishonest to claim it can't stand another.

Yes actually, that's exactly what it means. It would be false (but not dishonest) to doubt whether or not it could survive an imagined large quake (which would be true for any structure)... but not to claim that it cannot.

Each successive quake further stresses and weakens the structure.

That's not actually true... but it's also irrelevant. There's an enourmous margin between it's designed characteristics (intended to keep the core safe) and the much lower threshold necessary to simply remain standing.

[djysrv]

47. what the hydrogen explosiosn did and didn't do

The hydrogen explosions heavily damaged the exterior containment buildings, which were steel and concrete industrial structures that covered the following safety related systems inside. These systems include the reactor pressure vessel, the reactor containment protection the is built around the RPV, the spent fuel pool, and the steam generator. However, what we know so far is that most of the visible damage is to the non-safety related exterior structure.

What gets people concerned is the spectacular visuals of the damage to the exterior of the buidling.

I wrote a summary of a report, cited 0below, whcih lists some of the more significant issues that have been identified by TEPCO and international agencies and firms helping with the decommissioning of the site.

http://theenergycollective.com/dan-yurman/73454/details-emerge-about-failures-fukushima

It is clear that TEPCO's operations resulted in many mistakes which made the situation worse.

In working through the issue of safety decommissioning the site, one of the early priorities is to get control the radioactive water which is in the various buildings and utility subterranean areas around them.

As far as the spent fuel is concerned, TEPCO is building a cover building over the damaged reactor structures to install equipment that will move it from wet to dry storage.

Here's an April 23, 2012 update with more details

http://safetyfirst.nei.org/japan/tepco-building-structure-to-protect-fukushima-daiichi-reactor-4-used-fuel-storage-pool/

[FogerRox]

24. Meanwhile over @DK is this comment

It took me 30 sec elapsed time to find an assessment from the National Academy of Sciences exactly contradicting your assurances. Note, I welcome your links and will peruse later. Thanks. However, to label items as "false" is pretty bogus.

Here is a scenario: Earthquake induced collapse of pool structure dumping the fuel rods in a heap below. The fuel rods, and some break open in the fall, heat up quickly and so you have steam plus zirconium. In the core of such a heap of fuel rods it might well be possible to reach ignition temperatures.


http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=11263&page=39

"These oxidation reactions can become locally self-sustaining (i.e., autocatalytic3) at high temperatures (i.e., about a factor of 10 higher than the boiling point of water) if a supply of oxygen and/or steam is available to sustain the reactions. (These reactions will not occur when the spent fuel is under water because heat removal prevents such high temperatures from being reached). The result could be a runaway oxidation reaction—referred to in this report as a zirconium cladding fire—that proceeds as a burn front (e.g., as seen in a forest fire or a fireworks sparkler) along the axis of the fuel rod toward the source of oxidant (i.e., air or steam). The heat released from such fires can be even greater than the decay heat produced in newly discharged spent fuel.

"As fuel rod temperatures increase, the gas pressure inside the fuel rod increases and eventually can cause the cladding to balloon out and rupture. At higher temperatures (around 1800°C [approximately 3300°F]), zirconium cladding reacts with the uranium oxide fuel to form a complex molten phase containing zirconium-uranium oxide. Beginning with the cladding rupture, these events would result in the release of radioactive fission gases and some of the fuel’s radioactive material in the form of aerosols into the building that houses the spent fuel pool and possibly into the environment. If the heat from one burning assembly is not dissipated, the fire could spread to other spent fuel assemblies in the pool, producing a propagating zirconium cladding fire."
http://www.dailykos.com/comments/1092423/46113385

The comment from DK quotes the Safety and Security of Commercial Spent Nuclear Fuel Storage: Public Report (2006)
Board on Radioactive Waste Management (BRWM)

This is - I believe- a picture of what TEPCO claims is holding up the unit 4 spent fuel pool...



Pro nuke bogger David Walters over @ DK even infers a collapse of SPF #4 could lead to fire.
http://www.dailykos.com/comments/1092423/46115898

[stonecutter357]

32. K&R...

[djysrv]

56. timing of scenario

This scenario only works if the fuel has recently been in the reactor. Once it has been in a spent fuel pool for at least six months, the resulting decay heat is below the ignition temperature for zirconium cladding oxidation and hydrogen production. Also, it is below the temperature at which the uranium oxide fuel would melt.

And note this scenario is from a 2006 report by NAS and not more recently or specifically about the reactors at Fukushima

[zeemike]

26. so are you saying that everything will be fine as long as they keep cooling water to it?

And that even if they lose the cooling water nothing bad will happen?
That the cladding will not decay even if they lose the cooling water?
I know nothing about it but some that do are concerned.

[mahina]

14. What about us?

Worried.

[stonecutter357]

17. K&R...

[flamingdem]

18. SIGN THIS PETITION AT CHANGE.ORG !!! Pressure for the SU to support Japan with cleanup of Fuku

We are trying to appeal to the U.S. government to support Japan in cleaning up Fukushima.

We are particularly concerned about Spent Fuel Pool 4. We believe the UN should be involved, but this petition is geared toward U.S. citizens to press our government, specifically, because our officials only (supposedly) listen to their "constituents" — or so we were told.

Please go to "change.org" and type in the website's search engine:

"Fukushima Spent Fuel Pool 4 Risks U.S. Health and Safety"

Please sign and circulate this petition, as best you can. Post the petition on social media (Facebook, Tumblr, etc) to help us get the word to others.

Our goal is to gain signatures, have signers call all senators on the 2 energy committees (that control interactions with Japan, regarding Fukushima)–then, meet with several senators, present information and petition. We are bringing expert witnesses.

Please help us circulate this petition and join our call campaign! Thank you.

[AtheistCrusader]

29. I don't know there is actually a risk to us but...

We did sell them the fucking things, we did encourage them to use them, and it's the neighborly thing to do.

Signed.

[Uncle Joe]

22. The world should help Japan with whatever means possible and

it makes no difference whether this becomes aggravated in to an even greater national/regional disaster or morphs in to a global catastrophe, this should be treated as a worst case scenario.

Thanks for the thread, kpete.

[bvar22]

30. Everybody RELAX!!!

These plants are "engineered" to withstand Natural Disasters & Terrorists Attacks!
They have Redundant Back Up Systems.
They are so safe that they can be built on active Earthquake Faults along coastlines and fisheries without ANY concerns.
Now stop worrying your ignorant little heads, and let those of us who "Know Science" handle everything.
MMMMKaaaY?

....because It Can't Happen Here!!!

How STUPID are YOU?
Aren't YOU tired of being LIED to by the 1%, and their Marketeers and Promoters?

[stonecutter357]

31. K&R...

[spanone]

33. k&r...

[Moostache]

35. My 41 years on the planet have taught me this:

If there is a dollar figure attached to your opinion, your 'opinion' is a lie.

I only trust the word and expertise of people who do NOT have a direct link to their financial living from the nuclear industry. Regardless of how well-informed or forcefully they state their 'opinion', all I can hear is "wah-want-wah-wah" like Charlie Brown's teacher on the old time Peanuts TV specials...

The people who are claiming this is not a big deal are very welcome to stroll on up to the facility without any protective gear, loll around in the grass and set up camp to live right next to this "not dangerous, totally under control" location. Seeing as I have noted a dramatic lack of such movings, I tend to call "bullshit" on them.

[Art_from_Ark]

40. Actually, no one can just "stroll on up to the facility without any protective gear,

loll around in the grass and set up camp to live right next to this 'not dangerous, totally under control' location," because even the Japanese government acknowledges the dangers of getting too close and prohibits unauthorized entry within 12 miles of the reactors.

[RobertEarl]

52. Well, ok then

Let them go 12 miles from the plant and loll in the grass.

Meanwhile, here on the other side of the planet, having been dosed at least once by Fukushima, we are quite wary of what those Authorities are doing and if they really even care about us. Which, if they really cared about us, they wouldn't have authorized such an event to have even been possible. But it did. They screwed up big time. And we have no reason to trust them.

[Art_from_Ark]

54. You mean, like here?

These photos and videos were taken this month at Miharu Tanizakura Park, less than 25 miles from the reactors

http://www.takizakura.com/kaika/

[marmar]

36. Maybe the Mayans were right......

[KitSileya]

41. In related news, Jotunheimen in Norway more radioactive than scientists expected

26 years after the Chernobyl disaster, scientists with the Norwegian governmental agency that deals with radioactivity were surprised to find Jotunheimen, a famous mountain area in the middle of Norway, more radioactive than they expected. This is an area where agriculture is mostly traditional Sami reindeer herds. Still many reindeer were too radioactive to be slaughtered for meat.

This summer, the scientist are going to check out areas further north. They expect, on the basis of what they have already seen, that the estimates of radioactivity will be higher than previously thought. I think Japan will be similarly suprised 25 years from now at the results of the Fukushima disaster.

[DLevine]

42. k&r. n/t

[DCKit]

44. Gotta love Captain Atom and the Nnewquelur Avengers....

No matter how dire the circumstances, it'll never become an actual threat. I'd list the highlights, but suffice to say that everything they've told us thus far could never happen, has happened - their arguments evolve as the situation worsens.

Glad I don't live on the left coast.

[Overseas]

46. K&R.

[KakistocracyHater]

55. a large aircraft hangar needs to be built over #4 separately

& then another over the other 3. Down to the ground on the North South 7 West-to prevent hot particles from endlessly streaming into the atmosphere. Roman concrete under the Pacific with gold covering it-gold doesn't rust, not even in saltwater. heavily scatter zeolite around too