What To Make Of The Bernie Sanders Surge

[William769]

If Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont wins the Democratic nomination, then everything we know about presidential primaries can be thrown out the window. I say this despite new polls this week from Morning Consult and Suffolk University giving Sanders more than 30 percent of the vote and closing within 12 percentage points of Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire. These polls have already generated tons of headlines, but it’s important to keep in mind that even presidential steamrollers hit speed bumps and even — gasp! — lose states.

Consider the top five candidates in early polling in modern primary history: Republican Ronald Reagan for the 1980 nomination, Republican George H.W. Bush for 1988, Republican George W. Bush for 2000, Republican Bob Dole for 1996 and Democrat Al Gore for 2000. All went on to win at least 59 percent of the national primary vote and easily take the nomination. All were polling at 35 percent or better in Iowa, New Hampshire and national primary polls at this point in their campaigns.

And yet, all but Gore lost the Iowa caucus or the New Hampshire primary.1 In fact, all but Gore lost at least six caucuses or primaries.

Gore had an easier time than anyone else — he won more than 75 percent of the national primary vote and all 50 states — but even his campaign had its wobbly moments. Some polls had Bill Bradley wiping out Gore’s New Hampshire lead completely in the fall of 1999. Gore’s chief of staff, Ron Klain, was even forced out of Gore’s orbit in early August 1999.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-to-make-of-the-bernie-sanders-surge/

Gotta love the ending.

[cantbeserious]

1. Continued Wishful Thinking

eom

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

2. You can never count on anything in politics.

What happened 20 or 30 or even 10 years ago sure as hell isn't determinative of what will happen this time. The whole political landscape has changed dramatically in the last few years, and polls are useful only to establish trends over time. I'm not placing any bets right now. Anything could happen.

[AtomicKitten]

3. Losing in 2008 was also a surprise.

I have every confidence she can do it again, if not in the primary then in the general.

[BainsBane]

14. You're hoping for a GOP victory then?

Lovely.

I find it fascinating that people who claim to resent the Democratic drift to the right (what anyone can see it is quite clearly moving left) are the ones who are most anxious to see the GOP take the White House. I think it's pretty clear the real anger is that the Democratic party appeals to Democratic voters rather than the demographics that vote Republican.

[Aerows]

20. BainsBane - are you claiming that people

who support Bernie Sanders are drifting to the right?

If I support O'Malley, as well, am I on the right?

I haven't made my mind up yet, but the suggestion than O'Malley and Sanders supporters are on the right is pretty ludicrous.

You said: "You're hoping for a GOP victory then?" "I find it fascinating that people who claim to resent the Democratic drift to the right (what anyone can see it is quite clearly moving left) are the ones who are most anxious to see the GOP take the White House"

Congratulations. I think you are the first person to accuse Bernie Sanders and Martin O'Malley as right wingers. Or did I get it wrong?

I'm just quoting what you said.

[okasha]

4. Apparently his surge will be on an outgoing rip tide

if he doesn't man up and join the Democratic Party.

[NorthCarolina]

6. He's running for the Democratic nomination

that should be good enough for anyone. Before it was all...well, he better run as a Democrat or else he'll be another Nader. Now that he's running as a Democrat your side switches around and now claims he needs to join the Democratic Party. Jeebus, he's more of a Democrat than all of the other three candidates combined, so how about we give that "Bernies not a Democrat" thing a rest and concentrate on policy and whats good for America.

[okasha]

19. Under your implied rubric, Ted Cruz could run for the Democratic nomination.

Sanders is starting to.look like a cynical opportunist; he wants the support and resources of the Democratic Party, but he doesn't actually want to be a Democrat. Gods know why, since that's where he falls on the political spectrum.

There are several states that require a primary candidate to be an actual member of the party whose banner s/he carries. Should those states have to change their laws, or waive them for one candidate who's being cantankerous? If so, why?

[DisgustipatedinCA]

10. What kind of person actually uses the phrase "man up" non-ironically?

I guess I have my answer.

[okasha]

15. No, you don't.

I do believe, however, that Bernie Sanders is an adult male human.

[OKNancy]

5. This is Nate Silver, not some nut

He's been pretty darn accurate.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. Actually, Harry Enten of the 538 staff, but close enough.../NT

[Chickaletta]

12. Nate wasn't accurate in 2012..

I think he was off by a significant margin...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. Nate Silver gets a big boost from the election

Across the media and twittersphere Tuesday night, Nate Silver was a clear winner in the 2012 presidential election. The polling data guru, who runs the fivethirtyeight.com blog for the New York Times, saw sales of his book spike as a result.


On his blog fivethirtyeight.com, Silver compiles and analyzes polling results from all different sources to estimate how many of the 538 electoral votes each presidential candidates will win.
His work allowed him to essentially call all 50 states correctly in last night's vote. He correctly predicted the 49 states called by the networks Tuesday, and estimated that Florida would be essentially tied with Obama having a very slight edge. Four years ago he correctly predicted 49 of 50 states, missing only Obama's narrow win in Indiana.
While many political reporters and pundits had insisted the race was too close to call, or predicted challenger Mitt Romney would win, Silver's final estimate was that President Obama had a better than 90% chance of re-election, because of how he would fare in the electoral college.


http://money.cnn.com/2012/11/07/news/companies/nate-silver-election/

[sufrommich]

8. k&r nt

[ucrdem]

9. Hillary maintains a 19% lead among NH women and 2-1 lead among older NH voters

so an upset isn't likely.

Sanders and Clinton are essentially tied among men in New Hampshire, according to the Suffolk University poll, but Clinton holds a 19-percentage-point lead among women. Clinton also has a nearly 2-to-1 advantage among seniors in the state, who are more likely to vote in a Democratic primary.


http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/245496-sanders-surge-is-becoming-a-bigger-problem-for-clinton

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. Bookmark this post

Hillary will easily shatter Barack Obama's 55% showing in the South Carolina primary by at least thirty percent.

[ucrdem]

13. Will do.

Lots of DU predictions come to pass I've noticed but they're never the ones that get a bazillion recs. Why is that I wonder?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. Bookmark this post too, please

HRC will sweep all the conventional categories pollsters use...Ironically the only demographic that will be reasonably close is $100,000.00 + per year earners.

[Aerows]

18. Nothing is ever certain in politics

You can follow the trends and follow the weather, but in the end, the wind blows as it will.

[madfloridian]

21. This is NOT 2000 and Bernie Sanders is not Al Gore.

It's a whole different situation. Al Gore was pressured behind the scenes by the centrist DLC to turn more to the right. Besides that the Bush dirty plays didn't help.

Bernie doesn't have to remember what he said years ago. He's just been telling the truth as he sees it. And the way I see it.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. Harry Enten isn't basing his analysis exclusively on the 2000 race./NT

[Thinkingabout]

23. Now if this post had Bernie in the lead there would be different replies.

It gave the polls results so it makes it wrong. This does not help Bernie to get more votes.