Suffolk polling considered the "laughing stock" of 2012 polling

[Renew Deal]

And this is one of the reasons why:

Pollster pulls out of Fla., NC and Va., says Obama can’t win there

Suffolk University pollster David Paleologos, whose polls are aggregated into mainstream averages to show where the presidential race stands in the swing states, said he’s finished polling in Florida, North Carolina and Virginia because President Obama has no shot of winning those states.

“I think in places like North Carolina, Virginia and Florida, we’ve already painted those red, we’re not polling any of those states again,” Paleologos said Tuesday night on Fox’s "The O’Reilly Factor." “We’re focusing on the remaining states.”
<snip>

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/261189-pollster-pulls-out-of-fla-nc-and-va-says-obama-cant-win

Obama won two of them and was competitive in the third.

If we talk about terrible pollsters, let's not forget how horrific Mason-Dixon and Suffolk performed. MD's Florida poll was comically wrong, and they even stated that they won't poll Florida anymore because that state was absolutely in Romney's bag. Oooops. And Suffolk stated a while back that they won't be polling Florida, Virginia and North Carolina anymore, since all 3 states are obvious Romney wins, polling them would be a waste of time. Huge, game-changing, blunders by two formerly relatively well-respected polling firms. No more. They are hacks.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/11/1160222/-Updated-most-accurate-pollster-list-Angus-Reid-1

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/07/1158157/-Most-accurate-national-popular-vote-pollsters

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021753204#post4

[sharp_stick]

1. One of the reasons Romney

Last edited Tue Jun 16, 2015, 03:59 PM - Edit history (1)

and his entire staff were shocked at how badly they wound up doing on election night is thanks to Suffolk, Mason/Dixon and to a lesser extent even that unskewed polls loser.

Everyone has confirmation bias to some degree but these idiots and the Republican "braintrust" forgot the rule of thumb wrt confirmation bias. "Always recognize that confirmation bias exists and question everything, especially if it too closely says what you want it to say."

[cali]

2. Fail. Not only this is the second poll in 2 days that reflects these numbers

but in NH, Suffold does have a record of accuracy. In fact, unlike most NH polls in 2008, Suffolk forecast a win for Hillary:

https://www.suffolk.edu/academics/29013.php

A historical 89% accuracy rate is not too shabby.

[onenote]

6. Wrong. Suffolk picked Obama over Clinton in NH in 2008

Obama 39 percent to Clinton 34 percent.
The actual result was Clinton with 39 percent and Obama with 36 percent.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/NH_Day_7_and_8_Marginals_Jan_8_2008.html

The reality, in any event, is that while Suffolk characterizes the NH primary as "less than eight months away" as if that's a short period of time, it's actually a very long period of time. Much can happen between now and then, and which candidate will benefit and which will be hurt is unpredictable.

[samsingh]

3. thanks for reminding us which pollsters are complete jokes and windbags.

[joeybee12]

4. I thought he won all 3...

Or did NC take long to figure out and Mitten eventually won by a slim margin?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. BHO won VA and FL and lost NC by a slim margin.

[Renew Deal]

9. He won all 3 in 2008

[joeybee12]

10. Aha...thanks...nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. The Suffolk guy screwed the pooch in 2012 though...

eom

[samsingh]

5. the worst polls

interesting to see that the polls most likely to show repug leads are also the worst performing polls:

15. FOX News
15. Washington Times/JZ Analytics
15. Newsmax/JZ Analytics
15. American Research Group
15. Gravis Marketing
23. Democracy Corps (D)
24. Rasmussen
24. Gallup
26. NPR
27. National Journal
28. AP/GfK

Gallup has fallen so much in the past 10 years. What was once the golden standard for polling has become a laughing stock, caused by partisan leanings. It's criminal to do to such a fine institution.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. We need to see if other polls confirm the trend of the latest two polls before we discount them.

That being said :


SurveyUSA CEO Jay Leve was harsher. "This guy from Suffolk is obviously a jackass,"

[Capt. Obvious]

11. This thread can be seen as either

a) an effort to boost the morale of Clinton supporters after a new poll shows her up only 10 in NH.

or

b) an effort to beat down the excitement of Bernie supporters over a new poll showing him within 10 in NH.