Gulf of Mexico Disturbance (Invest 91L) Poses Major Flood Threat For Texas, Oklahoma, Ozarks

[snooper2]

So, my co-workers were yammering about some armageddon type storm they heard on news or radio coming our way---

Looks like this is it-


video at link- areas may have 5-10" in rain-

http://www.weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/tropical-development-gulf-of-mexico-91-l-heavy-rain

Highlights
A tropical depression or storm may form in the western Gulf of Mexico Monday or Tuesday.
The Hurricane Hunters will continue to investigate the disturbance Monday for signs of it becoming a tropical depression or storm.
Regardless of whether it develops, a threat of torrential rain and additional flash flooding/river flooding is in play for parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana and the Ozarks.
Gusty winds to tropical storm-force, minor coastal flooding, rip currents are also threats.
A tropical disturbance in the western Gulf of Mexico is poised to deliver more torrential rain and flash flooding to flood-weary parts of the South.

Flood watches have already been posted for a swath of central and east Texas, including the metro areas of Houston, San Antonio and Austin.

This system is currently producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms with sustained surface winds over 35 mph east of the elongated surface circulation.

NOAA buoy 42001, located about 210 miles south of the mouth of the Mississippi River, reported significant wave heights of 16 feet early Monday morning well northeast of the center of the disturbance.

Wind shear - winds changing with height - has lessened over Invest 91L since Sunday, and there is indication in satellite imagery that convection is trying to wrap closer to the center.

(MORE: Expert Analysis)

This disturbance will not have much time over the Gulf to develop before moving inland, as it will be steered by a dome of high pressure aloft over the Southeast U.S. into coastal Texas sometime Tuesday.



System is HUGH!

[ChisolmTrailDem]

1. We need to erect catch basins and flumes and send some of this coming deluge to our

friends in California!

[malaise]

2. From NOAA - looks like this will be Tropical Storm Bill at the next update

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Surface observations and preliminary data from an Air Force Reserve
Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft currently investigating the area of
low pressure located about 200 miles southeast of the middle Texas
coast indicate that the center has become better defined since
earlier today. If these trends continue, advisories will be
initiated later this evening on Tropical Storm Bill.

Data from the aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds with
the low are near 50 mph. Interests in and along the northwestern
Gulf of Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of this
system as it moves northwestward toward the Texas coast. Regardless
of tropical cyclone formation, tropical storm conditions are likely
along portions of the middle and upper Texas coast, and possible in
extreme southwestern Louisiana, tonight and Tuesday. The system is
also likely to bring heavy rainfall with possible flooding across
portions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana. For additional
information, please see High Seas Forecasts and products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent