Lots of Good News for HRC in New Bloomburg Iowa Poll

[cali]

Clinton is the first choice for 57 percent of likely Democratic caucus-goers in a new Bloomberg Politics/Des Moines Register Iowa Poll conducted May 25-29, up a percentage point from the previous poll in January. Controversies dating from her tenure as secretary of state, from her handling of the Benghazi attacks and her use of private e-mail to the Clinton Foundation's acceptance of contributions from foreign governments, have not weakened her campaign in Iowa, though many Democrats remain concerned they could hurt her in a general election.

Sanders, the independent senator from Vermont running for president as a Democrat, has surged to become the top pick of 16 percent of likely Democratic caucus-goers, more than triple the 5 percent he drew in January. Part of that is likely due to Sanders's recent formal entry into the race, while Warren, the Massachusetts senator whom many progressives urged to run as a liberal alternative to Clinton, has repeatedly said she won't run and wasn't listed as a likely candidate in this poll.

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Clinton's favorability rating among likely Democratic caucus-goers is actually two points higher now, at 86 percent, than in January. Her unfavorable rating is down three points, to 12 percent. Sanders's favorability got a boost to 47 percent from 37 percent, while 41 percent still say they don't know how they feel about him.

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http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-06-01/iowa-democrats-stick-with-hillary-clinton-in-bloomberg-politics-des-moines-register-poll

Of course there's a long way to go, but this bodes well for Clinton. There's quite a bit more to indicate that at the link. I think the worst thing for Bernie is summed up in one comment which amounts to: I like him better but I don't think he's electable. I think that comment actually represents a lot of dems.

And yes, I support Bernie. I also try to look at this race without letting that bias take over.

[Dawgs]

1. I don't get your last statement.

Why would you be biased about poll numbers?

[cali]

4. people frequently see what they want to see

for instance, someone could focus on Sanders more than tripling his support in the last 5 months or focus on the fact that Iowa independents who can caucus with the dems aren't keen on HRC.

It's simply human nature and it's illustrated here at DU multiple times a day, day in and day out.

[MohRokTah]

2. It looks like Sanders has solidified the former Warren support behind him.

O'Malley may have let an opportunity slip by waiting to announce.

[cali]

3. Yeah, I wonder about his decision to wait too.

But should HRC stumble, the party and the money will gravitate swiftly to O'Malley.

[HereSince1628]

5. Looks mostly stable for HRC to me, the favorability stuff is margin of error and interrelated

Polls nation wide have had HRC in the low 60's to high 50's for months, which while not yet changing much is very strong in a field of 5-ish.

Stable is all she needs, and I wonder if this will keep her risk averse with the press and in stump speeches so to protect her lead.

[cali]

6. Why wouldn't she? It's working.

As you said, stable is all she needs. Her very scripted campaign is effective in maintaining a dominant lead.

[HereSince1628]

7. Why, because it's a long run and shit usually happens

1) The public sort of expects candidates to weigh in on current events, and all her challengers, left and right, are going to do that at some point. HRC can't control global or national events. Being diplomatic is fine, but at some point she'll have to at least be diplomatic because simply saying nothing to protect the lead will be called out as stone-walling. We've already seen some of that. And, even the most diplomatic comments will be parsed by competitors, who now exist to her left and right.

Silence will limit her degrees of freedom by letting others define her. That is risky, probably riskier than silence.

2) Campaign staff regularly screw-up. They say and do things that compromise their candidate, and historically we've seen internal communications get exposed. Such things demand addressing in order to demonstrate administrative capacity and integrity.

3) Based on Clinton-family media history there is always the possibility of some flame bait emerging that will beg addressing.

Will any or all of those things occur? Will they matter? Who can say? Maybe, maybe not. But it is a long run and shit usually happens.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. I would suggest when the facts on the ground change her strategy will change.

Do you like sports?

I will give you two sports analogies.

You often see a football team that can't stop the run so the team keeps running it until another team stops them.


You often see a basketball team that can't stop the pick and roll so a team will keep running that play until another team stops them...


There's no love lost for Hillary On FOX but even Britt Hume conceded it's a very effective strategy so far...The goal of a campaign is not to please the press or those who are disinclined to vote for their candidate but to win.

[HereSince1628]

15. Over the past months, I think this has facilitated her fund-raising.

She's not had to say anything about issues in the TPP that are indeed interest of the folks from whom she seeks money. She's really had smooth sailing on the copyright/intellectual property rights stuff that's leaked from TPP

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. Look At Jeb...He's running but he's not running but all the while he's raising gobs of cash...

Look At Jeb...He's running but he's not running but all the while he's raising gobs of cash for his PACS. As the old saw goes , it's not what is illegal that shocks but what is legal.

[HereSince1628]

17. This approach is really mainstream, it's been like this since Rahm was Bill's

director of fundraising... rather than doing stump speeches, they do the private fund-raisers first.

Not winning a couple primaries along the way or getting hurt with a stumble on an issue means much less when your campaign isn't depending upon wins to keep the cash rolling in.

[Smarmie Doofus]

8. My take: people who see and hear Sanders are overwhelmingly impressed. n/t

[Dawgs]

9. Yep. My in-laws were all excited about him this weekend, and they live in rural Georgia.

They don't follow politics like I do, and I've never really talked about him much.

They were the ones that brought him up to me.

[workinclasszero]

11. Clinton is the first choice for 57 percent of likely Democratic caucus-goers

Clinton is the first choice for 57 percent of likely Democratic caucus-goers in a new Bloomberg Politics/Des Moines Register Iowa Poll conducted May 25-29, up a percentage point from the previous poll in January.

Wow great numbers Hillary!!!

[workinclasszero]

12. Clinton's favorability rating.....

Clinton's favorability rating among likely Democratic caucus-goers is actually two points higher now, at 86 percent, than in January. Her unfavorable rating is down three points, to 12 percent.

Maybe people who admire Hillary are sick and tired of the vicious attacks on her from the right and left?

[LordGlenconner]

13. "And yes, I support Bernie. I also try to look at this race without letting that bias take over"

[cali]

14. And?

Do you have a point? If you're attempting to say I'm not looking beyond my biases, put up or.......