He and Gephardt were supposed to be numbers one and two - per expectations. In fact neither got even half the people Kerry got. Not to mention, within the Senate - even on the communications subcommittee of the Commerce committee, Kerry had a long record calling for more diversity in the media and against the trend to media consolidation.
I know many here wanted Dean to win, were thrilled when he raised a huge amount of money from small donors on the internet, when he appeared in August 2003 simultaneously on three major news magazines with mostly positive press, and when he topped nation wide polls in Fall 2003. In fact, he had more superdelegates, more money and more media support than anyone going into Iowa.
However, he was already on somewhat of a downswing in early 2004. In NH, where he had a big lead - Clark moved in on him taking some of his support and when Clark started to implode most of his support went to undecided. (setting the stage for Kerry to gain a lead after winning Iowa as he was well liked, but he was not seen as likely to win the nomination. Go back and look at national media in Fall 2003, the media pushed Dean, the media pushed Clark, the media pushed Edwards, and a small portion (big labor related) pushed Gephardt. The ONLY coverage he got was questions on whether he would drop out after Iowa or after NH.)
In Iowa, through fall and January, Kerry was consistently winning people over - and they stayed with him, while Dean's numbers (Des Moines Register polling) were slipping. The nationwide media ignored that for the most part speaking of the difficulty of polling for caucuses. Then the weekend before the caucus, two things happened that could have accelerated that trend. Dean, harassed by an elderly heckler, demanded he "sit down". The Kerry campaign had received a call from the man Kerry saved in Vietnam. The staffer who got the call was smart enough to know this was gold. They immediately flew the man out and had him join Kerry at a previously scheduled event for Youthbuild, a program that helps poor, mostly minority young people learn trades while helping them complete high school. The video of Rassman seeing Kerry after over 30 years - hugging and Kerry responding to Rassman's thanks by quietly saying "anyone would have done that" was played - at least on cable repeatedly, usually before or after Dean yelling at the man. Add to that a nasty ad battle between Dean and Gephardt.
I suspect that that yelling might have had more impact that the famous "scream" that was painful for me to hear - even though I prefered Kerry at that point, after a year of wanting either of them rather than any competitor.
It may be trite, but in most nomination fights, there is always talk of who has momentum -- and who has under performed. Kerry's momentum not only helped him win NH, it helped him fight the next set of states, that were not friendly to New England - MO, OK, SC, DE, NM, ND and AZ. Dean, losing both Iowa and NH and Trippi having blown almost all the huge amount of money raised strategically opted to not seriously contest these states, concentrating instead contest later states that were more friendly. Meanwhile the media pushed the "sunny" John Edwards - Bill Clinton redux sans bimbo eruptions. Obviously, they were pushing for a replay of 1992 where on a similarly timed set of mostly Southern states, Clinton emerged as the new frontrunner. (Consider that if that happened, Kerry would be far weaker, Edwards had a pretty shallow resume and was still hawkish - there was a real possibility that Dean could return (for the first time by victories) as the front runner.
So, let's consider the impact of the scream. If you look at Dean's NH numbers, they did not decline - they just did not increase. Clark's numbers undecided eroded quickly, going to Kerry. In addition, Gephardt withdrew. Any support he had would certainly not have gone to Dean. Explain why Kerry would NOT get the momentum in NH that every other Iowa winner got? Explain why when Dean failed to meet expectations that his numbers would increase in the short interval between Iowa and NH. It is hard to say that Dean's loss in NH where he did come in second was not a function of where he was before Iowa and the fact that Kerry, already liked, got the frontrunner's momentum.
Now consider the next day with the 7 events. Dean's decision not to compete was that he NEEDED the momentum that winning Iowa/NH would have brought to even do well in those states. As it was he was short on money and cut his losses there. When Kerry won 5 of the 7, he became even stronger.
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