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LiberalElite

(14,691 posts)
Mon May 11, 2015, 07:20 PM May 2015

Opinion: Countdown to the stock-market Crash of 2016 is ticking louder

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/countdown-to-the-stock-market-crash-of-2016-is-ticking-louder-2015-05-08?page=1

-snip-

Warning bells just keep getting louder and louder as the countdown to the Crash of 2016 keeps ticking. Wall Street’s in denial, but the Washington Post warns: “U.S. economic growth slows to 0.2 percent, grinding nearly to a halt.” USA Today hears “Bubble Talk” at the Vegas “Davos for Geeks.” Earlier the Wall Street Journal warned, “declining population could reduce global economic growth by 40%.” Then recently the “slow-growth Fed” was blamed.

Wrong, former Fed chief Ben Bernanke counterattacked: “I’m waiting for the Journal to argue for a well-structured program of public infrastructure development, which would support growth in the near term by creating jobs and in the longer term by making our economy more productive.” But for years the Fed “has been pretty much the only game in town as far as economic policy goes.” Today “we should be looking for a better balance between monetary and other growth-promoting policies, including fiscal policy.”

Fiscal policy? No, Ben, not a chance. The GOP controls economic policy. And they will never give “growth-promoting fiscal policy” victories to President Obama and Hillary Clinton before the presidential election of 2016. Never. In spite of Bernanke’s obviously rational solution to the core problems of the American economy, one that would help the American people, the GOP will never, ever agree to fiscal stimulus programs that give the Democrats bragging rights and make Obama and Clinton look good before the elections.

-snip-
105 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Opinion: Countdown to the stock-market Crash of 2016 is ticking louder (Original Post) LiberalElite May 2015 OP
This message was self-deleted by its author rjsquirrel May 2015 #1
I included the word "Opinion" it was the first word - LiberalElite May 2015 #4
Yeah whose opinion matters rjsquirrel May 2015 #66
Crash of 2014: Like 1929, you’ll never hear it coming snooper2 May 2015 #69
Well we never did hear it coming so he was right about that! yellowcanine May 2015 #72
Lol EXACTLY!!!! rjsquirrel May 2015 #91
Fear monger, or sage prophet? Binkie The Clown May 2015 #6
That's always happen with a market economy... StarzGuy May 2015 #9
In his case, time already has told Major Nikon May 2015 #11
"Past performance is no guarantee of future returns" Binkie The Clown May 2015 #52
I don't know of any pundit saying the market will never go down Major Nikon May 2015 #53
Time will tell. Binkie The Clown May 2015 #54
So how much time are we talking about? Major Nikon May 2015 #55
Time will tell. Binkie The Clown May 2015 #63
What does any of this have to do with Farrell? Major Nikon May 2015 #68
Of course not. Binkie The Clown May 2015 #73
"Most financial prognostication is worthless" Major Nikon May 2015 #75
I played the market for a while. Binkie The Clown May 2015 #82
Here's a little secret about the stock market Major Nikon May 2015 #84
You're right. I was trying to get rich quick. Binkie The Clown May 2015 #85
That's because rjsquirrel May 2015 #102
Time has told already rjsquirrel May 2015 #100
I got DU shouted at for noting ... 1StrongBlackMan May 2015 #78
Stopped clock more like rjsquirrel May 2015 #101
You lump Thom Hartmann and quaky doodle Glen Beck in the same group? fasttense May 2015 #7
^^^^^this^^^^^^^^^ SalviaBlue May 2015 #14
+1 daleanime May 2015 #27
The Devil only exists by God's will Fumesucker May 2015 #38
Or not... truebrit71 May 2015 #77
Mother Teresa F4lconF16 May 2015 #40
Hardly rjsquirrel May 2015 #65
And you have a right to your opinion even if it is absolutely wrong. fasttense May 2015 #93
Why thank you rjsquirrel May 2015 #96
god and the devil are in the same group, both mythical creatures snooper2 May 2015 #70
BUY GOLD!!!!! rjsquirrel May 2015 #92
Another person with another opinion. I will defend your right to be wrong. n/t fasttense May 2015 #94
Why thank you rjsquirrel May 2015 #95
I hope you are enjoying DU. L0oniX May 2015 #17
If the economy is doing so well that stocks are a good buy, then why are interest rates JDPriestly May 2015 #19
Boots. Me. Quaking. Aerows May 2015 #49
Odd, any study of history will tell you that nothing this topheavy has lasted Warpy May 2015 #105
This message was self-deleted by its author RKP5637 May 2015 #2
I never trust Wall Street in an election year. B Calm May 2015 #3
Never trust Wall Street's public announcements erronis May 2015 #8
Why? Because the economy is doing so poorly that bank interest rates are incredibly low on JDPriestly May 2015 #20
Poorly ? rjsquirrel May 2015 #104
K&R Much truth there that people need to wake up to. n/t Binkie The Clown May 2015 #5
We're putting every available dollar into the market... brooklynite May 2015 #10
If the economy is healthy enough to support a high stock market, high S&P, Dow Jones, etc., then why JDPriestly May 2015 #21
Because the banks are flush with cash, that's why A HERETIC I AM May 2015 #81
But if they wanted to make money, considering the interest rates on credit cards, they JDPriestly May 2015 #88
A safety deposit box Aerows May 2015 #41
Absolutely not... brooklynite May 2015 #42
You do that! Aerows May 2015 #43
You're doing the right thing! rjsquirrel May 2015 #103
I've been around enough to see dozens of these "crash predictions" FLPanhandle May 2015 #12
If we paid attention to all of these, and even half of them came true.... George II May 2015 #13
Predicting stock market crashes is a pretty easy game bhikkhu May 2015 #15
It has been 7 years. Aerows May 2015 #35
Significant market corrections are a constant possibility Major Nikon May 2015 #56
I'm neither 7, 14, nor 21 or 28 Aerows May 2015 #57
Strawman Major Nikon May 2015 #59
You know the goofball who wrote the article predicts a crash every two years right? snooper2 May 2015 #71
There's one person who is not waiting for an election and has been confronting them... L0oniX May 2015 #16
Good; we need a crash ram2008 May 2015 #18
We had a crash already less than 10 years ago. FLPanhandle May 2015 #22
We had a bailout, which was a bandage over a bigger issue ram2008 May 2015 #23
Yeah! Bring down the market! And all those Union pension funds! brooklynite May 2015 #45
down 5% market noise 10%buyable pullback 20%sell sell sell captainarizona May 2015 #24
Ow! Ow! Ow! TheCowsCameHome May 2015 #25
So...... ClarkeVII May 2015 #26
You are off by a decimal point. former9thward May 2015 #86
And, of course, they still think "growth" will save us. arcane1 May 2015 #28
Whenever I see something like this... RandySF May 2015 #29
And I bet a lot.... ClarkeVII May 2015 #30
Last time I saw something like this I was told to buy gold. Agnosticsherbet May 2015 #31
My dad fired a financial advisor who suckered him into this kind of panic. RandySF May 2015 #32
Financial Advisors... ClarkeVII May 2015 #34
Anybody can Aerows May 2015 #36
Been predicting this for over a month. Aerows May 2015 #33
Up to a record high today rjsquirrel May 2015 #97
Very high chance of imminent major market crash Yorktown May 2015 #37
Just history Aerows May 2015 #39
When the Buffet Index is in the red, you know you're in trouble Yorktown May 2015 #44
You are reading the same signs Aerows May 2015 #47
Would anyone who agrees with this OP care to tell us where they've tucked every last penny? brooklynite May 2015 #46
Will you? n/t Aerows May 2015 #48
I'll take that as a no. n/t Aerows May 2015 #50
I'm not panicking... brooklynite May 2015 #62
BUY GOLD!!11!! workinclasszero May 2015 #51
Good idea... but not Flying Squirrel May 2015 #64
There are bailouts to be had Autumn May 2015 #58
I work for a major railroad and business has dropped off dramatically since March. neverforget May 2015 #60
I'd say the main thing to be concerened about is whether SheilaT May 2015 #61
Stocks plummeting today ram2008 May 2015 #67
The Dow lost 1/5th of one percent Major Nikon May 2015 #76
Tell me, do you make financial decisions based on one day of data? brooklynite May 2015 #79
Plummeting? I don't think you know what that word means. onenote May 2015 #80
Stocks on fire today rjsquirrel May 2015 #98
declining population *over the next 50 years* could reduce global economic growth by 40% muriel_volestrangler May 2015 #74
The laws of physics mean little to a committed capitalist. ronnie624 May 2015 #90
I believe Mike Huckabee can get you a good deal... brooklynite May 2015 #83
The GOP is out to drive the US over a fiscal cliff blackspade May 2015 #87
While you panic, can I point out that my Apple Stock closed at $125? brooklynite May 2015 #89
Lol right on!!!!! rjsquirrel May 2015 #99

Response to LiberalElite (Original post)

LiberalElite

(14,691 posts)
4. I included the word "Opinion" it was the first word -
Mon May 11, 2015, 07:43 PM
May 2015

I dont' know about Farrell being a huckster. I bow to your superior knowledge.

 

rjsquirrel

(4,762 posts)
66. Yeah whose opinion matters
Tue May 12, 2015, 09:06 AM
May 2015

This guy makes bank being an alarmist and has never been right.

Like Thom Hartmann or Glenn Beck.

 

rjsquirrel

(4,762 posts)
91. Lol EXACTLY!!!!
Thu May 14, 2015, 09:03 AM
May 2015

If you'd bought an S&P index fund at the start of 2014 you'd be sitting on 20+% gains now (I did and am!). Unemployment is at a 10 year low (I think I just saw 14 year). Gold is flat to down. Dollar is if anything too strong. Oil is cheap. And US treasuries remain the world's preferred safe haven.

These huckster grifter types predict the end of the world FOR A LIVING. They get rich scaring rubes who don't know anything about economics. They include talk radio morons and grifters on both sides ideologically (yes, including Hartmann) who skin off the grift because gold sellers have figured out that the kind of morons who listen to talk radio, left or right, are do enough to fall for Chicken Little pitches year in and year out.

And a lot of them are active on DU too.


The U.S. economy is not collapsing, it is improving. If you haven't already gone long on that trend you're late. Me, I paid my kid's tuition for four years just by going into an aggressive position in November of 2013 (thanks Tim Cook!).

Markets are cyclic. Yes they will fall and rise. Only suckers try to time them exactly.

Binkie The Clown

(7,911 posts)
6. Fear monger, or sage prophet?
Mon May 11, 2015, 08:24 PM
May 2015

Only time will tell.

Many a forecaster who has hit it spot on has been called a fear monger. Especially in 1928 and 1929. The few who spoke out about the coming crash were all vilified as fear mongers.

Everyone prefers the fantasy of uninterrupted, prosperity and growth. It ain't gonna happen that way. Never has. Never will.

StarzGuy

(254 posts)
9. That's always happen with a market economy...
Mon May 11, 2015, 08:49 PM
May 2015

...trickle (p**) down for the 99% and the rich $$1%$$ just keep playing with themselves and each other on the stock market. Boom and bust, boom and bust, boom and bust...Boom for the rich and bust for everyone not rich.

Binkie The Clown

(7,911 posts)
52. "Past performance is no guarantee of future returns"
Mon May 11, 2015, 10:51 PM
May 2015

Consider Alexander Dana Noyes, financial columnist for the New York Times, who began predicting a major stock market crash in 1927. All through 1927, 1928, and right up to October 1929, he kept right on pointing out that market was dangerously over blown. He didn't say when, but he did say "soon". He was ridiculed and call a doomsayer. In retrospect, his reasoning was sound, even though his timing was a little off. And, BTW, the crash did happen.

The other thing that is consistent is those who keep right on saying that the market can only go up, never down. They tend to be right day after day, week after week, month after month. And then one day, all of the sudden, they are spectacularly wrong.

That's why I say only time will tell. Past history will NOT tell. Time will tell. As to whether there will be a crash in 2016 specifically, a person would have to be a first class fool to say there will be, and an equally first class fool to say there won't be. However, with each passing day that a bubble grows, it becomes more likely to pop than not to pop.

Major Nikon

(36,827 posts)
53. I don't know of any pundit saying the market will never go down
Mon May 11, 2015, 11:10 PM
May 2015

If there is such a thing they would be similarly dismissed as a crank. Perennially claiming a bubble is going to pop is less valuable financial advice than a coin flip.

"Past performance is no guarantee of future returns" applies to the market itself, not perpetual scaremongers masquerading as advisers who are seldom right. The market has more than doubled since Farrell first offered his predictions in 2010, which means anyone who followed his advice has almost certainly lost more than from any potential bubble.

Binkie The Clown

(7,911 posts)
54. Time will tell.
Mon May 11, 2015, 11:13 PM
May 2015

Time will tell.

Until time tells, I don't know, and I don't pretend to know. The only thing I know is that time will tell. Anything beyond that is mental masturbation done only because it feels good.

Binkie The Clown

(7,911 posts)
63. Time will tell.
Tue May 12, 2015, 02:50 AM
May 2015

When will the next earthquake hit San Fransisco?

We know it's coming, but to predict a date or a deadline is foolish.

The tectonic forces at work in the stock market are similar. Not always visible. Never predictable with certainty. But the stress is building. The big crash is coming. How soon? Time will tell. There's no point in trying to be more specific than that.

There's also the possibility that it will be a big fizzle that crashes in slow motion over a period of years. But that seems less likely. "Seneca's cliff", after all, still seems to be the rule.

There's one thing I know for sure, however. Three or four years after it happens I will be able to look back and tell you approximately when it happened. Until then, time will tell.

Major Nikon

(36,827 posts)
68. What does any of this have to do with Farrell?
Tue May 12, 2015, 11:00 AM
May 2015

If Farrell predicts a crash and it doesn't happen for 20 years, do you think his financial advice has any value at all?

Binkie The Clown

(7,911 posts)
73. Of course not.
Tue May 12, 2015, 12:31 PM
May 2015

Most financial prognostication is worthless.

What I do pay attention to, however, is the growing number of voices, not just Farrell, who are warning of an overblown bubble that is headed for a serious correction, and quite possibly a major crash, sooner rather than later. How soon? Time will tell. How bad? Time will tell.

What good is that? Mostly, it cautions me against dumping my life savings into the stock market, or getting carried away by the popular enthusiasm for a speculative bubble. It also motivates me to consider ways of protecting my assets from the possibility of a crash.

If you're looking for certainty, you've landed on the wrong planet.

Major Nikon

(36,827 posts)
75. "Most financial prognostication is worthless"
Tue May 12, 2015, 04:36 PM
May 2015

Agreed. Some is also more worthless than others.

Some people don't have the stomach to play the stock market.

Binkie The Clown

(7,911 posts)
82. I played the market for a while.
Tue May 12, 2015, 07:06 PM
May 2015

I also spent one summer following horse racing.

Both were fun, and both left me just a little poorer..

Major Nikon

(36,827 posts)
84. Here's a little secret about the stock market
Tue May 12, 2015, 07:14 PM
May 2015

Actually it's not that big of a secret. It's just that many, if not most people don't know about it.

The stock market isn't a get rich quick scheme. It's a get rich slow scheme. Over the long haul the stock market offers the greatest return vs risk compared to any mainstream investment.

So playing the market "for a while" and comparing it to horse racing pretty much misses the whole point of why it's a good idea to invest in the stock market in the first place.

 

rjsquirrel

(4,762 posts)
102. That's because
Thu May 14, 2015, 06:35 PM
May 2015

only fools "play" markets. They are not like horse racing. They are for steady long term dollar cost averaged investment,

Said it above, I'll say it again. If you parked $100 in an index fund on the day BEFORE the 1929 crash, it would have grown now to over $100,000 with you doing nothing but waiting. That's ten times more than the underlying inflation rate.

And that rate of return has been consistent over the long run of nearly 90 years,

 

rjsquirrel

(4,762 posts)
100. Time has told already
Thu May 14, 2015, 06:20 PM
May 2015

Even if you invested the day before the 1929 crash, if you'd put 100 bucks in stocks then you'd be rich as hell now.

Over the long run, equities outperform any other investment besides maybe prime real estate.

That's the long run. In the longer run we are doomed anyway.

 

1StrongBlackMan

(31,849 posts)
78. I got DU shouted at for noting ...
Tue May 12, 2015, 05:11 PM
May 2015

the vast majority of those predicting the up-coming great crash ... also, print subscription based "research" newsletter shouting about the up coming crash, and advising their readers to short the market.

Anyone care to bet on how they have bet regarding the market direction?

 

rjsquirrel

(4,762 posts)
101. Stopped clock more like
Thu May 14, 2015, 06:29 PM
May 2015

Markets are cyclic, so you will always be "right" predicting a crash.

A crash is when scared suckers sell and smart investors buy. That's all it is.

If you had invested $100 in a stock index fund in 1928 -- yes, right before the biggest crash in history -- it would be worth over 1000 times as much now, 10x the rate of inflation. You'd have a hundred thousand dollars in hand. Pre-taxes of course.

And the people who did, and rode out the cycles, are laughing at you from their yachts.

 

fasttense

(17,301 posts)
7. You lump Thom Hartmann and quaky doodle Glen Beck in the same group?
Mon May 11, 2015, 08:45 PM
May 2015

That's like lumping God and the devil in the same group.

Or a sane rational person lumped in with stark raving lunatics in the asylum.

Or Mother Theresa lumped in with Hitler.

I could go on but you get the gist.

F4lconF16

(3,747 posts)
40. Mother Teresa
Mon May 11, 2015, 10:09 PM
May 2015

was actually a pretty terrible person. Not as bad as Hitler, mind you, but still pretty bad.

Not that that had anything to do with your point

 

rjsquirrel

(4,762 posts)
65. Hardly
Tue May 12, 2015, 09:05 AM
May 2015

Hartmann has the right social politics for me, but his constant harping about an impending global economic collapse is of a piece with Beck and the rest on the right.

And the reason appears to me to be that the only regular advertisers he has are huckster ripoff goldbug con artists. The conflict of interest is egregious. Hartmann is keeping the lights on by scaring people -- all 200 of his regular listeners seem to be resentful conspiracy-minded folks too.

Calls it like I sees it. Talk radio is dead. Liberal talk radio is mummified.

 

fasttense

(17,301 posts)
93. And you have a right to your opinion even if it is absolutely wrong.
Thu May 14, 2015, 11:53 AM
May 2015

I catch him on live stream so I don't see/hear any commercials. If you are listening to him on local radio, they are inserting their own commercials and they seem to be doing a really bad job of selling the air time. I wouldn't blame it on Thomm.

A lot of other people including well known economists are also predicting a 2nd crash because nothing was done to prevent it. You could lump him in with Professor Richard Wolff for instance.

 

rjsquirrel

(4,762 posts)
96. Why thank you
Thu May 14, 2015, 06:09 PM
May 2015

Hartmann is barely even on the air anymore. Most of his listeners are on satellite. And he personally pitches the gold shills every hour.

It's his decision. I suspect without gold shills he would have no program. No one else is selling his sir time because no real businesses want to advertise on left talk radio because the market is so small. Only the bottom feeders keep it going (increasingly true on the right too) because the audience is mostly old, poor, and angry.

Dow up 200 points to a record high today. Made me a cool 30k or so.

 

rjsquirrel

(4,762 posts)
92. BUY GOLD!!!!!
Thu May 14, 2015, 09:07 AM
May 2015

THE ECONOMY IS COLLAPSING!!!

Also, gold sellers are my only advertisers so I have to say this nonsense like I'm an economist and not a third-rate talk show shouter.

Come on, Hartmann wouldn't know economics from his lunch.

 

rjsquirrel

(4,762 posts)
95. Why thank you
Thu May 14, 2015, 05:54 PM
May 2015

but I'm right.

Hartmann depends on gold advertisers, who depend on stupid people feeling panic.

Couldn't be more obvious or transparent what he is up to. Same gig as Glenn Beck, just a lower budget version.

I share his social politics. His economics knowledge, however, is either pathetic or disingenuous or both. Cuz he talks pure bullshit.

JDPriestly

(57,936 posts)
19. If the economy is doing so well that stocks are a good buy, then why are interest rates
Mon May 11, 2015, 09:20 PM
May 2015

so miserably low?

Warpy

(111,359 posts)
105. Odd, any study of history will tell you that nothing this topheavy has lasted
Thu May 14, 2015, 06:45 PM
May 2015

without the wholesale enslavement of the population and even then, the population has had a nasty habit of rising up against the top when food gets just a little too scarce or debt service just a little too severe. Sometimes, they even succeed.

Mostly, at least in recent history over the last couple of centuries, crashes happen when the bubble stops inflating rapidly and the big players panic and try to get out fast. The market has been essentially flat for the last several months but that doesn't seem like a sufficient trigger to me, it seems more like QE funny money is no longer flooding in to keep pumping it up.

That another bust is coming is not predictive rocket science. However, anyone who tells you he knows when it will happen is a fool. So is anyone who thinks he knows what to do about it in advance. There is just no way to know either until it's all over and what's left gets counted up.

Response to LiberalElite (Original post)

erronis

(15,355 posts)
8. Never trust Wall Street's public announcements
Mon May 11, 2015, 08:48 PM
May 2015

That cavern is not there to dispense real wisdom to the rest of the world. They are only there to make money and the easiest marks are the dumb sods like you and me.

Personally, I like the fact that any individual (flash trader) can totally rule the stupid markets. It says a lot about how there is really nothing there except massively elevated egos and propped up worth.

Why would people with half a brain put their money into some stock market that they know nothing about, or invest in speculative collateral pieces of paper. If you are so stupid to want to get 10% return on investments, you deserve to lose it all - and you will.

JDPriestly

(57,936 posts)
20. Why? Because the economy is doing so poorly that bank interest rates are incredibly low on
Mon May 11, 2015, 09:22 PM
May 2015

savings, CDs, etc. So people get suckered into the stock market not realizing that if they can't get money on bank savings, then a highly valued stock market is probably over-inflated, just one big bubble.

 

rjsquirrel

(4,762 posts)
104. Poorly ?
Thu May 14, 2015, 06:40 PM
May 2015

That's the right wing scare story. It has never been true that loose monetary policy has masked a failed economy. It's called stimulus and Keynes showed long ago that it generates growth in the Dow phases of the business cycle.

The U.S. economy, I hate to tell you, is doing fine.

brooklynite

(94,745 posts)
10. We're putting every available dollar into the market...
Mon May 11, 2015, 08:49 PM
May 2015

...mix of stock, bonds, CDs and other odds and ends. Hiding it under the mattress doesn't give you much return.

JDPriestly

(57,936 posts)
21. If the economy is healthy enough to support a high stock market, high S&P, Dow Jones, etc., then why
Mon May 11, 2015, 09:24 PM
May 2015

are bank interest rates to savers on various bank instruments so low?

A HERETIC I AM

(24,380 posts)
81. Because the banks are flush with cash, that's why
Tue May 12, 2015, 06:22 PM
May 2015

If they needed deposit money they would
Offer better rates, plain and simple.

With all the selling of equities that went on from late 07 through 09, where do you think all that cash went?

JDPriestly

(57,936 posts)
88. But if they wanted to make money, considering the interest rates on credit cards, they
Wed May 13, 2015, 12:08 AM
May 2015

could easily use the depositors' money to make it. If there were a really big demand for money, the interest rates would be a bit higher. No. The economy is not doing well.

brooklynite

(94,745 posts)
42. Absolutely not...
Mon May 11, 2015, 10:15 PM
May 2015

Whether the market goes up or goes down we invest in a diversified portfolio. When stocks go down, bonds go up. When the market goes down, our investment buys more shares.

Add to that, a safe deposit box doesn't generate interest. Now, we could live comfortably on our total assets for the rest of our lives, but I'm not sure the average person this OP is trying to scare are in the same position.

 

rjsquirrel

(4,762 posts)
103. You're doing the right thing!
Thu May 14, 2015, 06:37 PM
May 2015

Especially if you are relatively young.

As you approach retirement or college expenses you can shift into safer, lower yield instruments to preserve capital and liquidity, but when young you should be fully in the equities market and never sell.

FLPanhandle

(7,107 posts)
12. I've been around enough to see dozens of these "crash predictions"
Mon May 11, 2015, 08:54 PM
May 2015

A broken clock is eventually correct, but I don't base my schedule on it.

George II

(67,782 posts)
13. If we paid attention to all of these, and even half of them came true....
Mon May 11, 2015, 08:56 PM
May 2015

.....there would have been about 50 crashes in the last few years!

bhikkhu

(10,724 posts)
15. Predicting stock market crashes is a pretty easy game
Mon May 11, 2015, 09:07 PM
May 2015

You're always right, though the timing may vary. Predicting stock market recoveries is a similarly easy game.

For the most part market numbers are all a sideshow, while economic growth slowly chugs along. I wouldn't mind seeing less economic growth myself, as a steady-state sustainable economy is, in the long run, a healthier condition. As is a stable, rather than growing, population.

 

Aerows

(39,961 posts)
35. It has been 7 years.
Mon May 11, 2015, 10:00 PM
May 2015

I'm familiar with history. No-brainer to be aware this is headed our way.

Major Nikon

(36,827 posts)
56. Significant market corrections are a constant possibility
Mon May 11, 2015, 11:19 PM
May 2015

Pundits pointing that out is redundant and useless unless they can predict it with some degree of accuracy. So far Farrell has a pretty piss poor track record.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crash-is-dead-ahead-sell-get-liquid-now-2010-05-25

 

Aerows

(39,961 posts)
57. I'm neither 7, 14, nor 21 or 28
Mon May 11, 2015, 11:44 PM
May 2015

Poo-poo the prediction as long as you can stomach it, but it is coming.

Major Nikon

(36,827 posts)
59. Strawman
Mon May 11, 2015, 11:54 PM
May 2015

I'm not denying a correction won't happen and I can personally assure you one certainly will.

I've been investing for well over 30 years now and I'm pretty sure had I followed the advice of scaremongers, my nest egg would be considerably smaller. YMMV.

 

snooper2

(30,151 posts)
71. You know the goofball who wrote the article predicts a crash every two years right?
Tue May 12, 2015, 11:09 AM
May 2015

I guess he isn't smart enough to figure out stuff gets saved on the intertubes these days LOL

 

L0oniX

(31,493 posts)
16. There's one person who is not waiting for an election and has been confronting them...
Mon May 11, 2015, 09:13 PM
May 2015

Bernie Sanders!

Bernie Sanders Steps Up Attack on Wall Street

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2015/05/06/bernie-sanders-steps-up-attack-on-wall-street/?mod=WSJ_Election_Blog

Sen. Bernie Sanders, a Vermont Independent and 2016 presidential hopeful, blasted “too big to fail” financial firms Wednesday — offering another sign that attacks on Wall Street aren’t likely to fade in the 2016 election.

His push for stricter curbs on Wall Street echoes calls by former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley, a likely Democratic presidential candidate, for dismantling large banks.

The middle class “is still suffering from the tremendous damage huge financial institutions and insurance companies did to them in 2008,” Mr. Sanders said at a press conference with Rep. Brad Sherman (D., Calif.). “No financial institution should be so large” that it can put the economy at risk, he added.

Mr. Sanders and Mr. Sherman introduced a bill entitled the “Too Big To Fail, Too Big To Exist Act,” which would require financial regulators to name – and break up – financial firms whose failure would have catastrophic economic consequences. The line of criticism is nothing new for Mr. Sanders, who has introduced similar bills designed to dismantle big banks since 2009.

more at link

Yep ...the asshole repukes will block any attempts to reign these thieves in.

ram2008

(1,238 posts)
18. Good; we need a crash
Mon May 11, 2015, 09:16 PM
May 2015

Let the house of cards come toppling down; it's the only thing that will wake everyone up and provoke real change.

ram2008

(1,238 posts)
23. We had a bailout, which was a bandage over a bigger issue
Mon May 11, 2015, 09:30 PM
May 2015

I don't think for the next crash a bandage will be able to stop the bleeding. When the house comes down its gonna need rebuilding. Hopefully then there will be some changes.

 

captainarizona

(363 posts)
24. down 5% market noise 10%buyable pullback 20%sell sell sell
Mon May 11, 2015, 09:32 PM
May 2015

If you get business radio and are worried about your stock listen to mo ansari show and he will get you out in plenty of time. You can also use stop loss but keep them down 10% so you don't get stopped out to soon and more volatile stocks 15/20% stop loss. Negative correlated etfs go up when stock market goes down and you can do doubles and triples so you don't have to buy to much. Finally it is better to do to little then to much. The market timer guy on weekends is pretty good too.

former9thward

(32,082 posts)
86. You are off by a decimal point.
Tue May 12, 2015, 07:26 PM
May 2015

GDP growth in the first quarter was 0.2%, a terrible number which will probably be revised downward when the final figures come in as they usually do.

RandySF

(59,276 posts)
29. Whenever I see something like this...
Mon May 11, 2015, 09:42 PM
May 2015

I remember the email I got from another financial site warning that I'd better take action before Obama plunged us into a depression. This is just as credible.

Agnosticsherbet

(11,619 posts)
31. Last time I saw something like this I was told to buy gold.
Mon May 11, 2015, 09:54 PM
May 2015

Th $1.50 I had in my pocket went for a cheap cup of coffee.

RandySF

(59,276 posts)
32. My dad fired a financial advisor who suckered him into this kind of panic.
Mon May 11, 2015, 09:56 PM
May 2015

A friend of the family, no less. She told him to sell all his shares of one stock. But it didn't go down, it went up. I've never trusted these people since.

ClarkeVII

(89 posts)
34. Financial Advisors...
Mon May 11, 2015, 09:58 PM
May 2015

Are basically big jokes designed to take people's money. Check out the book "A Random Walk Down Wall Street."

 

Aerows

(39,961 posts)
33. Been predicting this for over a month.
Mon May 11, 2015, 09:57 PM
May 2015

It's not like it is tin-foil hattery - it's history. The stock market undergoes a correction around every 7 years, and that is engineered.

We are headed right there. This time it will be bundled corporate property, maybe some bad school loans and a disaster on shale oil futures.

I'll just sit right back, and unfortunately, say I told you so. Short while you can!

 

Yorktown

(2,884 posts)
37. Very high chance of imminent major market crash
Mon May 11, 2015, 10:04 PM
May 2015

Over the long run, the Price Earning Ratio should be around 15, with a +/- 5 band.

Stocks bounced back out of the safe badwidth in 2010:




Forbes article here: Here's Why The Stock Market Bubble Deniers Are Completely Wrong

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo/2013/12/17/heres-why-the-stock-market-bubble-deniers-are-completely-wrong/

 

Yorktown

(2,884 posts)
44. When the Buffet Index is in the red, you know you're in trouble
Mon May 11, 2015, 10:21 PM
May 2015

Economic indicators are bad (US activity level), national debts are not deleveraged, PERs are far too high. In Europe, the QE will only feed speculation as it's not used to reduce debt or bureaucracy and prices are nearing deflation.

Smells of gunpowder.

brooklynite

(94,745 posts)
46. Would anyone who agrees with this OP care to tell us where they've tucked every last penny?
Mon May 11, 2015, 10:26 PM
May 2015

I'm sure you've pulled everything out of the market (or have told your pension manager to do likewise), otherwise you'd be pretty hypocritical...

 

workinclasszero

(28,270 posts)
51. BUY GOLD!!11!!
Mon May 11, 2015, 10:48 PM
May 2015

This scare brought to you by goldline and your local hate radio station, 20000 times a day.

 

Flying Squirrel

(3,041 posts)
64. Good idea... but not
Tue May 12, 2015, 03:18 AM
May 2015

till the market crashes. Gold and Silver prices crash with the market, or at least they did in 2008. Might as well buy stock if you're wanting to invest - but again, not till the market crashes.

And, by the time the talk shows are all hawking gold, it's much too late to buy. Anyhoo, as far as Gold and Silver go, we're on the tail end of a long bell curve that will most likely continue downward until at least 2020.

neverforget

(9,437 posts)
60. I work for a major railroad and business has dropped off dramatically since March.
Mon May 11, 2015, 11:55 PM
May 2015

They were hiring in March and now they're laying people off. The old heads have never seen it drop so fast so quickly. I was hired 2 years ago and I'm being laid off very soon. Even with my low relatively seniority, just 4 weeks ago I was working a shift that had weekends off. Now I can't even work in my home terminal.

 

SheilaT

(23,156 posts)
61. I'd say the main thing to be concerened about is whether
Tue May 12, 2015, 12:03 AM
May 2015

a Democrat or a Republican is elected next year for President.

If a Democrat, your investments are relatively safe, because the markets do very well when we have a President with the D after his name. If the one elected has the R? Then consider selling, because the market will assuredly be down by the end of his or her term.

What's really odd is that so many investment advisers are staunch Republicans themselves who somehow never notice this.

I'll be having a serious talk with my financial guy in about a year, about how to re-think my investments if a Republican becomes our next President.

brooklynite

(94,745 posts)
79. Tell me, do you make financial decisions based on one day of data?
Tue May 12, 2015, 05:14 PM
May 2015

And I don't know if I'd call $36.94 to be plummeting.

Maybe you responded a bit too early...

 

rjsquirrel

(4,762 posts)
98. Stocks on fire today
Thu May 14, 2015, 06:12 PM
May 2015

Record highs on all three major US indices.

Looks like you have no idea how markets work.

muriel_volestrangler

(101,369 posts)
74. declining population *over the next 50 years* could reduce global economic growth by 40%
Tue May 12, 2015, 02:55 PM
May 2015
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2015/01/14/declining-population-could-reduce-global-economic-growth-by-40/

Well, duh, you might say. But Farrell somehow thinks that's relevant to a 2016 crash, rather than, say a slower stock market growth over the 50 years. And with population growth slowing, we don't need economic growth anyway.

ronnie624

(5,764 posts)
90. The laws of physics mean little to a committed capitalist.
Wed May 13, 2015, 11:10 AM
May 2015

When they begin prattling about 'growth', they're referring specifically to a growth in profits, because that is all that matters. Providing resources, goods and services for people is purely consequential.

brooklynite

(94,745 posts)
83. I believe Mike Huckabee can get you a good deal...
Tue May 12, 2015, 07:09 PM
May 2015

...on emergency food supplies for the panic that ensues.

blackspade

(10,056 posts)
87. The GOP is out to drive the US over a fiscal cliff
Tue May 12, 2015, 08:07 PM
May 2015

They have golden parachutes and vacation homes in Dubai, so what do they care?

brooklynite

(94,745 posts)
89. While you panic, can I point out that my Apple Stock closed at $125?
Wed May 13, 2015, 12:32 AM
May 2015

And since I bought it at 65c (allowing for splits), I think I have a bit of a cushion.

 

rjsquirrel

(4,762 posts)
99. Lol right on!!!!!
Thu May 14, 2015, 06:16 PM
May 2015

I took a long position with 10k in apple in 2002, at near the bottom of the dotcom bust. It's made me s fortune, as in over half a million bucks in gains before taxes. It literally covered my kid's college tuition Closed around $128 today.

But go ahead, buy gold suckers.

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