I just have this feeling that Miliband will form the next UK government

[malaise]

He can't be worse than Cameron

[octoberlib]

1. Miliband is preferable to Cameron.

I hope so.

[Seeking Serenity]

2. It'll very likely all depend on Scotland and the SNP

Labour has long had a near lock on Scottish seats in the Commons, but there are some polls there showing that Labour could lose nearly all of its Scottish seats tomorrow in favor of the SNP.

Instead of licking its wounds after last year's independence referendum drubbing, the SNP appears stronger than ever in Scotland. While certainly a socialist party, there's no guarantee that it will just naturally opt to join a coalition government with Labour, Labour being seen as just as much an English, unionist party as the Conservatives, and just about as equally detested in Scotland.

I think Scotland will decide it. But that's just from an American outside looking in. I'd be interested in knowing what some Britons who peruse these boards have to say.

[muriel_volestrangler]

4. In some ways, Scotland isn't that much of a battleground for control of parliament

Nearly all its seats will go to the SNP or Labour (the Lib Dems should retain Orkney & Shetland, which they've held forever, and voted 'no' comfortably in the independence referendum; and there's a border seat that could be a 3 way contest between Lib Dems, Tories and SNP). I think the SNP will end up supporting a Labour government in the initial votes in parliament; there's no way they'd support the Tories, and if they said they'd support neither and the Tories couldn't cobble together a majority, they'd end up forcing a new election, and doing that so quickly would piss people off and lose them seats.

If Labour holds on to a few more Scottish seats, it might help them get more seats overall than the Tories - which will look better, and perhaps persuade the Lib Dems to talk to them rather than the Tories.

Where the Tories, or Lib Dems if they decide to talk to the Tories, could help their numbers is in England - if they can hold on to some more of their 2010 gains from Labour. If Conservatives + unionists in Northern Ireland (about 10 MPs) + Lib Dems can get to 322 - an effective majority, since Sinn Fein don't take the oath of loyalty and their seats - they could form a government. That means about 286 Tories plus 26 Lib Dems, in the most likely configuration.

[Seeking Serenity]

5. Fair enough

Just my 2¢ from an outsider. That and an extra $5 will get you a cup of coffee.

[malaise]

6. I am so upset

I almost wish the exit poll was Ohiolike

[T_i_B]

3. If he does get in (which is still a big if)

The state of the economy and the compromises made for coalition will make him unpopular very quickly.

But that said, Cameron's government hasn't been great.