Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

Quixote1818

(28,961 posts)
Sun May 3, 2015, 09:47 PM May 2015

I think Bernie Sanders has a shot


I have a pretty strong record of predicting winners early on in the past as you can see from this old DU post: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x7276587


I think Hillary is still the clear front runner and if I had to put money on this I would bet on Hillary but I think Bernie has some qualities that could shake things up and give him an outside shot. First of all he has a way of simplifying his message that is understandable and will resonate with regular folks. In fact there is no one better with presenting the liberal message than Bernie. I also think his ability to talk straight and not spin is refreshing and will appeal. Believe it or not I have Republican friends on Facebook who unwittingly post quotes by Bernie not knowing he is about as far left as they come. Many might point to Kucinich who is a lot like Bernie and who was a brilliant candidate but got no traction. I think Kucinich had problems mostly because he was short and had big ears; he just didn't have the right look and demeanor for many Americans. Bernie on the other hand has the right "Grandfather" look that middle America will connect with. It's ridiculous that people have to have a certain look but that's how it goes in America. Finally, the American people voted for Obama because they wanted "Real Change". They thought they were getting a Bernie Sanders but instead they got another pro-Wall Street president. Don't get me wrong as I think Obama has done well but I think people truly thought they were getting more of a Teddy Roosevelt / FDR type candidate who was going to shake things up with Obama and that simply was not who he was. Bernie is the real deal and there is no way in hell he will be told what to do by the power brokers. People will sense this because it's the core part of his message and he comes across as sincere as hell! That's why 90% of DUers would vote for him rather than Hillary. That being said, DU loved Wes Clark and Clark went nowhere but I think Bernie is more seasoned than Clark. My reasoning tells me that Bernie he has a strong outside shot!
39 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
I think Bernie Sanders has a shot (Original Post) Quixote1818 May 2015 OP
I hope you're right fadedrose May 2015 #1
I think his message would also resonate well with poor republicans. Every republican is not RKP5637 May 2015 #2
As long as they don't watch Fox News BrotherIvan May 2015 #3
Bernie WILL use the bully pulpit and expose assholes. L0oniX May 2015 #4
Bernie has outstanding integrity think May 2015 #5
They both have strengths and weaknesses for the general election lostnfound May 2015 #6
Bernie is second to none when it comes to staying on message and presenting it clearly. morningfog May 2015 #7
Bernie ought to get votes from the right, even teabaggers. We share similar concerns, but they Gregorian May 2015 #8
I don't think Bernie is all that much of a pacifist. I think he wants America to have a strong JDPriestly May 2015 #23
Kucinich was a hobbit. Spitfire of ATJ May 2015 #9
You saw his feet? chknltl May 2015 #11
I once went into a sub joint with a sign like that-- Jackpine Radical May 2015 #15
I think so too! burrowowl May 2015 #10
heh heh alcibiades_mystery May 2015 #12
I predicted Money would beat Manny in 2008. DemocratSinceBirth May 2015 #13
What are you talking about? I predicted that on Nov. 24th 2007 Quixote1818 May 2015 #14
I was referring to your original post, which links a post from October 1, 2008 alcibiades_mystery May 2015 #16
If you had taken the time to actually read what was linked to in the post from 10/2008 Quixote1818 May 2015 #18
ROFL alcibiades_mystery May 2015 #21
Are you trying to be rude on purpose or by accident? Quixote1818 May 2015 #28
America is not going to vote for a socialist. Yavin4 May 2015 #17
I don't know... thesquanderer May 2015 #22
All Democrats are socialists ibegurpard May 2015 #24
I'm an American and I will. Jester Messiah May 2015 #33
I wish it were so. Lunabell May 2015 #19
He has a great shot of puling her rhetoric to the left. former9thward May 2015 #27
And then think about the limitations on negatives with Bernie Sanders. JDPriestly May 2015 #20
There is not a single county in Europe that is democratic socialist. former9thward May 2015 #26
I lived there. Maybe I am misunderstanding your post. Here are the facts. JDPriestly May 2015 #30
Here are the facts. former9thward May 2015 #38
Democratic socialism is essentially a modified capitalism. JDPriestly May 2015 #39
Since I like you guys and gals here's your chance to join the 5% if not the 1% DemocratSinceBirth May 2015 #25
Well, Obama had a 5% chance of winning back in 2007 Quixote1818 May 2015 #29
20-1 isn't nearly as daunting as 50-1/NT DemocratSinceBirth May 2015 #36
Bernie has a shot! Enthusiast May 2015 #31
Bernie is probably the most passionate politician I've ever seen. Vinca May 2015 #32
Bernie Sanders is our next President madokie May 2015 #34
Bernie will help Hillary be a stronger general election candidate Gothmog May 2015 #35
He's got a terrific shot at reelection as Vermont's senator. Beyond that, not so much. nt stevenleser May 2015 #37

fadedrose

(10,044 posts)
1. I hope you're right
Sun May 3, 2015, 09:52 PM
May 2015

that he gets the nomination. If he gets that, he'll win the big one...

The figure of 99% having less than the 1% should resonate loudly if they put out ads that are true.

RKP5637

(67,112 posts)
2. I think his message would also resonate well with poor republicans. Every republican is not
Sun May 3, 2015, 10:10 PM
May 2015

a multimillionaire. There is no fluff with Bernie, he tells it like it is, a lot of people like that. I think as he gets more visibility he will get a fair amount of support!

BrotherIvan

(9,126 posts)
3. As long as they don't watch Fox News
Sun May 3, 2015, 10:30 PM
May 2015

I think he is attracting a lot of young Republicans who haven't heard about Socialists under the bed yet.

 

L0oniX

(31,493 posts)
4. Bernie WILL use the bully pulpit and expose assholes.
Sun May 3, 2015, 10:37 PM
May 2015

Good luck to the power brokers ...they gonna need it. Think the media will not give the POTUS air time when he wants? Good luck to the power brokers with that too.

 

think

(11,641 posts)
5. Bernie has outstanding integrity
Sun May 3, 2015, 10:49 PM
May 2015

Which shows in his voting record and the legislation he's sponsored.

Little things like War & Peace mean something....

http://www.sanders.senate.gov/legislation/

Is America ready though to vote based on those qualifications?

lostnfound

(16,189 posts)
6. They both have strengths and weaknesses for the general election
Sun May 3, 2015, 10:58 PM
May 2015

And they are both 10,000times better than Mitt or Jeb or any of the crazy dweebs running as republicans.

Hillary would pick up a surprising number of votes from Republican women.

Bernie might win over a significant number of votes from a certain segment of the right wing that sees itself as populists, independents, or return to the constitution types.

 

morningfog

(18,115 posts)
7. Bernie is second to none when it comes to staying on message and presenting it clearly.
Sun May 3, 2015, 11:04 PM
May 2015

He He doesn't mince words, he doesn't dodge hard questions and he is sincere in his positions. Add his straight shooting to a lack of scandal or even a whiff of it, he's a strong candidate.

Gregorian

(23,867 posts)
8. Bernie ought to get votes from the right, even teabaggers. We share similar concerns, but they
Sun May 3, 2015, 11:09 PM
May 2015

don't seem to see very clearly, and are swayed to the right by the right's lies.

The reality is, the teabaggers want good things too, but they're confused that the problem is that the government is too big. It is, if you're looking at where the biggest part of the government is. I can agree that the military is way too huge, all while we go into debt just trying to educate ourselves, and get healthy.

So I have no doubt Bernie will resonate with a variety of portions of this country.

I have to say, about Clark, I was concerned about having a military man in the White House, as much as I loved the guy. I imagine that was the sentiment of a lot of people, even if only subconsciously.

My feeling on Obama is that he isn't what we see in the White House. His actions came from not wanting to buck too much of the system. And I'll be honest that I have a tough time imagining President Sanders in the oval office talking with high level pentagon officials, telling them they have to turn their swords into road graders. I dearly dream of that day coming true, but if we couldn't take the metric plunge, I don't see how an entire economy can flip on a dime. And I dearly hope it does.

JDPriestly

(57,936 posts)
23. I don't think Bernie is all that much of a pacifist. I think he wants America to have a strong
Mon May 4, 2015, 12:37 AM
May 2015

defense but believes that a lot of other countries should take more responsibility for keeping the peace and that if they do, the world will be a far more peaceful place.

chknltl

(10,558 posts)
11. You saw his feet?
Sun May 3, 2015, 11:59 PM
May 2015

Wow, and all this time I thought the Republicans stuck that sign outside the halls of Congress that says "No shirt, no shoes no service!", because they hated the poor.

Jackpine Radical

(45,274 posts)
15. I once went into a sub joint with a sign like that--
Mon May 4, 2015, 12:18 AM
May 2015

"No shirt, no shoes no service!"

And the sign was right. The clerk was topless, barefoot and apathetic.

 

alcibiades_mystery

(36,437 posts)
12. heh heh
Mon May 4, 2015, 12:02 AM
May 2015

I'm guessing that the "evidence" (that you predicted an Obama win on October 1, 2008) is a joke, yes? Everyone knew he was gonna win by then. I was hoping for a May 2007 post stating same! That might have been worth the click through!

 

alcibiades_mystery

(36,437 posts)
16. I was referring to your original post, which links a post from October 1, 2008
Mon May 4, 2015, 12:21 AM
May 2015

Your new return to November 24, 2007, I couldn't possibly have known about, since you didn't link that one, and, quite frankly, I don't follow your posts that closely to remember one from eight years ago.

Quixote1818

(28,961 posts)
18. If you had taken the time to actually read what was linked to in the post from 10/2008
Mon May 4, 2015, 12:27 AM
May 2015

you would seen the link to that prediction. Here, give it another shot: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x7276587

It's the second link.

 

alcibiades_mystery

(36,437 posts)
21. ROFL
Mon May 4, 2015, 12:33 AM
May 2015

Why didn't you just link the 2007 post the first time?



Oh Lawd! You got people digging through two of your old posts to make your point?

Quixote1818

(28,961 posts)
28. Are you trying to be rude on purpose or by accident?
Mon May 4, 2015, 01:44 AM
May 2015

I didn't link to the Obama post directly because there were TWO predictions not just one. It linked to me saying John McCain would come from behind and win the Republican nomination and that Obama would come from behind and win the Democratic nomination. Most folks reading the whole post instead of glancing over it and giving a knee jerk, childish reaction fully understand this. You can act condescending and rude but it doesn't help your point or show you in a very positive light.

thesquanderer

(11,990 posts)
22. I don't know...
Mon May 4, 2015, 12:37 AM
May 2015

There was a time when I would have said America would not vote for a black man. Given the chnce to speak, Sanders can (and does) explain how a "democratic socialist" might not mean what people think. That's at least some advantage over Obama... no amount of explanation could change his skin color. And he won anyway!

ibegurpard

(16,685 posts)
24. All Democrats are socialists
Mon May 4, 2015, 12:40 AM
May 2015

Haven't you heard? It's become a meaningless term since the right wing throws it around so much anymore.

former9thward

(32,068 posts)
27. He has a great shot of puling her rhetoric to the left.
Mon May 4, 2015, 01:16 AM
May 2015

Not her actual views or what she would do in office.

JDPriestly

(57,936 posts)
20. And then think about the limitations on negatives with Bernie Sanders.
Mon May 4, 2015, 12:32 AM
May 2015

1. Trying to make up a sex scandal about Bernie is going to be a challenge, a 'huge" challenge.

2. Also going to be tough to try to create a financial scandal associated with Bernie.

3. His hair is messy. But that is one of his endearing traits. He isn't vain. People do not like vain candidates.

4. He talks almost entirely and solely about the issues. BUT -- he balances that with a quick with and a warm sense of humor. A perfect combination.

5. He was a rebel in his youth. That would be a problem if he were young. But at his age that is yet another endearing facet of his history and personality.

6. He is a democratic socialist and that word socialist is a dirty word in American politics. But today he dealt with that by pointing out that Europe is mostly democratic socialist. Even Germany, the wealthiest of the European countries has a lot of programs that were established by the democratic socialists, and even under the conservatives had made college education virtually free of charge. Bernie is handling this very well and maybe it is time for America to acknowledge our own socialist background -- the building of the canals, the land grants to railroads, the development of the West in great part through selling federal lands for little money to homesteaders or in some cases giving it away free.

I think Bernie has an excellent chance to win in 2016. No guarantee. Hillary's poll numbers are formidable. We shall see.

former9thward

(32,068 posts)
26. There is not a single county in Europe that is democratic socialist.
Mon May 4, 2015, 01:14 AM
May 2015

Not a single one. Maybe you should look up the definition of socialism.

JDPriestly

(57,936 posts)
30. I lived there. Maybe I am misunderstanding your post. Here are the facts.
Mon May 4, 2015, 03:39 AM
May 2015

Let's take Germany as an example. It is relatively conservative.

The Parliament of Germany, the Bundestag, has a plural multi-party system, with two major parties, the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) and the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), with its sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU) in the same parliamentary group, also known as CDU/CSU or the Union.

Germany also has a number of minor parties, most importantly The Left, and Alliance '90/The Greens. The federal government of Germany usually consisted of a coalition of a major and a minor party, most typically CDU/CSU and Free Democratic Party (FDP), or a 'red-green alliance' of the SPD and Greens. From 1966 to 1969, from 2005 to 2009 and again since 2013, the federal government consisted of a Grand Coalition.[1] In 2013, the FDP was voted out of the national Parliament, and in the following months also out of some state Parliaments such that it is not participating in any governments any longer.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_political_parties_in_Germany

Then France -- Hollande is the head of the French Socialist Party

François Gérard Georges Nicolas Hollande (French pronunciation: ​[fʁɑ̃swa ɔlɑ̃d]; born 12 August 1954) is a French politician. He is the 24th and current President of France, since 2012.

Hollande was previously the First Secretary of the French Socialist Party from 1997 to 2008, the Mayor of Tulle from 2001 to 2008 and the President of the Corrèze General Council from 2008 to 2012. He also served in the National Assembly twice as a representative of Corrèze from 1988 to 1993 and 1997 to 2012.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fran%C3%A7ois_Hollande

So, Hollande, a French Socialist Party member is at this time the President of France.

Even the conservatives in Europe are more socialist than liberals in the US.





former9thward

(32,068 posts)
38. Here are the facts.
Mon May 4, 2015, 10:09 AM
May 2015

Every country in Europe has a market based capitalist economy as does the U.S.. None of them are based in socialism. I don't care who is in their parliaments or who their prime minister is. Europe has many more social welfare programs than the U.S. but that is not socialism.

JDPriestly

(57,936 posts)
39. Democratic socialism is essentially a modified capitalism.
Mon May 4, 2015, 12:50 PM
May 2015

There is nothing communistic or pure socialist about it. It is capitalism that is regulated and certain functions are performed by the people as a whole expressing themselves through the government. There is nothing anti-capitalist about it.

Germany is a social democracy with lots of social benefits. We (Americans) also have many projects that form our infrastructure both social and economic that we do together through our democratically elected government.

A lot of people do not understand what democratic socialism is. It is not anti-capitalism. Some banks are controlled by the government in some democratic socialist states. In Austria, the government had a Bausparkasse program when we were there. If you saved money in your Bausparkasse account, the government put in some. Bau is related to the word bauen which means build.

In the US the government helped the builders of some of our canals in the early days and then the railroads later with land grants. Government has always helped prepare the infrastructure for those with capital and ideas. Eisenhower was big on building freeways. I remember that. A lot of our community redevelopment projects in California and elsewhere have been very successful. Government can boost capitalism in important ways other than just tax breaks for entrepreneurs and corporations.

I quote from Wikipedia:

The Social Democratic Party of Germany (German: Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands, SPD) is a social-democratic[2][4][5][6] political party in Germany. The party is one of the two major contemporary political parties in Germany, along with the conservative CDU/CSU, and is led by Sigmar Gabriel.

The SPD currently governs at the federal level in a so-called grand coalition with the Christian Democratic Union and the Christian Social Union since December 2013 following the results of the German Federal election of 2013. The party participates in 14 state governments, of which nine are governed by SPD Minister-Presidents.

. . . .

The SPD was established as a Marxist party in 1875. However, the SPD underwent a major shift in policies reflected in the differences between the Heidelberg Program of 1925, which "called for the transformation of the capitalist system of private ownership of the means of production to social ownership",[10] and the Godesberg Program of 1959, which aimed to broaden its voter base and move its political position toward the centre.[11] After World War II, under the leadership of Kurt Schumacher, the SPD re-established itself as a socialist party, representing the interests of the working class and the trade unions. With the Godesberg Program of 1959, however, the party evolved from a socialist working-class party to a modern social-democratic party working within capitalism.

The current party platform of the SPD espouses the goal of social democracy, which is seen as a vision of a societal arrangement in which freedom and social justice are paramount. According to the party platform, freedom, justice, and social solidarity, form the basis of social democracy. The coordinated social market economy should be strengthened, and its output should be distributed fairly. The party sees that economic system as necessary in order to ensure the affluence of the entire population. The SPD also tries to protect the society's poor with a welfare state. Concurrently, it advocates a sustainable fiscal policy that doesn't place a burden on future generations while eradicating budget deficits. In social policy, the SPD stands for civil and political rights in an open society. In foreign policy, the SPD aims at ensuring global peace by balancing global interests with democratic means. Thus, European integration is one of the main priorities of the SPD. SPD supports economic regulations to limit potential losses for banks and people. They support a common European economic and financial policy, and to prevent speculative bubbles. They support environmentally sustainable growth. [1

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_of_Germany

Socialism is an accepted term in Europe that mostly refers to social welfare programs like education, health care, worker participation in certain aspects of the workplace. It is not a movement that favors the nationalization of all industry. As I understand the proponents of "socialism" in the US favor the fostering of employee-owned businesses. Richard Wolff favors that. I asked him if he meant businesses formed like partnerships, and he said "yes."

If we can have corporations which are investor-owned, we can certainly have partnerships or worker or employee-owned businesses without even changing our laws much. During the late 19th century, there were many rural cooperatives. We still have some today. We just don't think of them as socialist.

With regard to the partnerships or employee-owned businesses, many law firms are partnerships but they do not include all employees as partners. It is a simple matter to change an existing partnership into a company in which all have a share.

Americans become frightened at the word "socialism" because of the terrible violence that has been associated with socialist movements in many parts of the world. That has been the case especially when the society is to begin with not democratic, in which speaking freely is punished. But actually, Americans have always worked together in their communities. I was raised in churches in which the cooperative and social aspects of religion were emphasized.

I don't think that anyone is talking about some sort of socialist revolution. When Bernie Sanders talks about a revolution, he is talking about raising political awareness, getting people out to vote and exciting people about participating in government. Wouldn't it be great if as many people could name all the potential candidates for their local mayor's office or the presidency as recognize the names of the Kardashians? We might be able to at least claim that we were a true democracy or democratic republic, take your pick.

But the sad fact is that most Americans think that self-government is either boring or a sport with points being racked up for two opposing sides. Many Americans do not realize that their government was intended to be the expression of the social will of the people and to serve the needs of the people, and that is what democratic socialism is now in most of Europe.

In particular, we need affordable education for people who want to and are eligible to attend college. We need that if we are to have a strong, capitalist society. Young people, saddled with school debt have to choose between starting a business or having children. This is especially true of young people with graduate degrees in professional fields and the large debts they incur in getting those degrees. In the countries that call themselves social democracies, college education for qualified students is inexpensive or free. We should offer the same opportunities to our young people.

That's an example of social democracy. Kindergartens in Europe are wonderful and when we lived there were free. My children attended those free half-day kindergartens and benefited so much from them.

That is what is being talked about when people use the term social democracy. At least that is my experience and opinion.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,711 posts)
25. Since I like you guys and gals here's your chance to join the 5% if not the 1%
Mon May 4, 2015, 12:56 AM
May 2015
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/democrat-candidate


You can turn 20 grand into one million.


If accumulating wealth is not your thing you can use the money to support Bernie in the general election.

Vinca

(50,303 posts)
32. Bernie is probably the most passionate politician I've ever seen.
Mon May 4, 2015, 07:41 AM
May 2015

The difference between career pol and person who really gives a shit will be crystal clear when there are debates. He's a long shot, but you never know when something will click. He might find himself on a tidal wave.

Gothmog

(145,496 posts)
35. Bernie will help Hillary be a stronger general election candidate
Mon May 4, 2015, 09:11 AM
May 2015

I tihink that Bernie could make Hillary a stronger general election candidate http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2015/04/bernie_sanders_running_for_president_helps_hillary_clinton_the_vermont_senator.html

If this continues to be the Vermont senator’s approach, Sanders will be more of a help to Clinton’s presidential chances than he will be to his own.

The first bonus that Sanders provides for Clinton, say her supporters, is that he becomes a foil. One of Clinton’s Democratic allies in Congress explained that with a country that prefers general election candidates closer to the middle, Sanders will always offer proof that Clinton is not really that far left. He does for Clinton what Howard Dean did for John Kerry in 2004.....

In 2012 Rep. Ron Paul and Mitt Romney had a symbiotic relationship in the Republican campaign. Paul elevated his own profile and gave his voters an outlet, but he never pointed out the yawning gaps between what he claimed to believe so deeply and the positions of the man who was on his way to being the party’s inevitable nominee. It’s way too early to see if Sanders will play the same role for Clinton, but it has started out that way.

Sanders is such a long shot that those who share his views might be OK with the consolation prize of imitation from Clinton. But if her move to the left is simply rhetorical, she can shed that rhetoric in the general election as candidates often do. This would be another reason for Sanders to press his case with more definition.

In 2014, Kerry did look very moderate compared to Howard Dean and Ron Paul did in effect work with Romney in 2012. I really think that having Sanders in the race will help HRC and get rid of the talking point that the primary process is a coronation. I remember the Ron Paul/Mitt Romney relationship in 2012 (Paul is from near my neck of the woods) and the two never directly attacked the other. Paul got increased exposure for his positions and Romney was made to look more reasonable.
Latest Discussions»General Discussion»I think Bernie Sanders ha...