So... Martin O'Malley?

[Agschmid]

Or is that over now?

[FSogol]

1. You think he folds over 1 RW smear?

[Agschmid]

2. No I doubt he folds, but it seems his supporters may have.

A northerly wind from the shores of Lake Champlain may have blown the wind right out of his sails...

[FSogol]

4. I think your crystal ball and weather map need updating. n/t

[Agschmid]

5. Not many OP's of late here on DU.

Though I realize that isn't really an accurate predictor.

[JustAnotherGen]

26. He hasn't announced yet

[bigtree]

28. If you're actually interested...

Martin O'Malley walks into West Baltimore community meeting - Mingles outside w/protesters
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10026584386

kick this one

[Agschmid]

29. I am.

[bigtree]

32. cool

[FSogol]

42. +1 n/t

[KamaAina]

45. This is what I like to see

He can be a calming influence on the situation and raise his national profile at the same time.

[Agschmid]

52. Agree.

[geek tragedy]

6. not exactly a rw smear, and the question will be for anyone considering him

"why not Sanders?"

he's going to be defending his record, not bragging about it. tough sledding.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. Not the Baltimore story but he lost the anti-Hillary mantle./NT

[Agschmid]

10. He did.

And that was a big part of his success up to now.

[FSogol]

11. Maybe on the DU bubble, but in the real world? We'll have to wait and see

how the first couple of primaries fall out.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. Bernie sucked up all of the anti -Hillary oxygen in the room...

If you are going to oppose her you better oppose her and not be a Hillary Lite... Martin O'Malley is a nice enough fella but Bernie has the monopoly on the ABC (Anything But Clinton) vote.


And in the highly, highly... highly unlikely event Hillary stumbles Joe Biden will enter the race to "save" the party as Hubert Humphrey did in 1968.

You heard it here first.

[Agschmid]

14. I don't remember Hubert's attempt going that well?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. I believe Biden would fare better than Humphrey. NT

[FSogol]

19. Humphrey was the establishment candidate. In our election, that is currently HRC.

Bad comparison: Biden or O'Malley to Humphrey.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

21. Exactly...But if she falls , the party will rally around Biden.

Because he is the candidate that is the least offensive to all the wings of the party.

[FSogol]

23. Doubtful. The campaigns are barely beginning. Save us the goofy prognostication and let's watch

how the campaign goes. This tendency to want everything wrapped up like a tv sitcom in 30 minutes is lame.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

25. Nothing goofy about my prognostications

The European oddsmakers who pay with their own money see it the same way:

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/democrat-candidate


As do the polls:



http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html


Bernie turned Martin O'Malley's long shot campaign into a virtual impossibility.

[FSogol]

27. Be sure to check your oddsmakers on the day O'Malley announces.

Of course, today Bernie is only announcing that he'll make the announcement on May 26, so you can check back then too.

[FSogol]

15. LOL, DU's own Slyvia Brown? Why haven't you retired on your lottery winnings yet? n/t

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. $100.00 donation to DU Martin O'Malley isn't the 2016 Democratic presidential nominee.

Death by Bernie.

[FSogol]

20. And I'll donate an "if" to your previous sentence. n/t

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. Look at it like beers...

Martin O'Malley is Hillary Lite... Bernie is Schlitz Malt Liquor.

[FSogol]

24. We'll add "beers" to the list of things you don't know much about.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

30. I am a huge sports enthusiast as are you...

Consequently I spend a lot of time on sports boards. Nobody talks more smack than fan boys and fan girls. My e-friend always talks about having "skin in the game".


You said my prognostications are "goofy"... I am willing to make a $100.00 contribution to DU if Martin O'Malley is the Democratic nominee as long as you are willing to make a $100.00 contribution if he isn't.


I will even do a parlay...Martin O'Malley won't be the 2016 Democratic presidential nominee and the Washington Nationals won't win the 2015 and 2016 World Series.

[FSogol]

40. Liking sports does not equal liking gambling or betting.

I donate to candidates I like and always donate to the Democratic nominee, regardless of who gets the nomination. I see no reason to change that.

[KamaAina]

47. Hell no!

Bernie is a fine craft beer!

[geek tragedy]

41. I'd take issue with calling it "anti-Hillary" more like the idealistic wing of the party

wants someone who's unabashedly liberal/leftwing. For once, they have it in the form of someone who's not easily dismissed as loon, e.g. Kookcinich.

[morningfog]

51. I think "Non-Hillary" is better, or "true liberal" or "true populist."

In terms of "tiers" though, there is clearly going to be Hillary in the first tier, and everyone else in the second tier

[morningfog]

50. And for that reason, it would greatly benefit Hillary for O'Malley to enter,

as well as Webb and Chafee and any others. If it is just, or primarily Hillary v. Bernie, the contrasts will be sharp. With a few others in the middle, the sharpness is dulled.

[brush]

31. IMO O'Malley waits until Baltimore simmers down . . .

As some see the Gray killing by the police a legacy of his mass incarcerations policy.

He's got some serious baggage now to carry that Sanders doesn't.

[FSogol]

35. That's only his baggage if you ignore the fact that someone else was in charge the last 7-1/2 years.

Plus, he had already moved away from zero tolerance policing in 2006 for a better model. That was before he left the Mayor's office in the Fall of 2007.

as for waiting, he said he'd enter the race and make the announcement before the end of May. He will announce.

[KamaAina]

49. Someone else may have been in charge of Baltimore

but he was governor of Maryland. It's the state, by and large, that sets the incarceration policy, at least for felons.

[brush]

55. I used the word "legacy" from his mass incarceration policy

I think it's accurate to say that some of that attitude still exists in the police department. It didn't leave when he left the mayor's office.

And as recently as 2013 he was urging the new mayor to re-instate the policy.

And I'm far from the only one criticizing O'Malley for this. Check out this link of an interview of David Simon, the creator of "The Wire" who is also a former newspaper police beat reporter during the O'Malley years.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/04/29/david-simon-martin-_n_7175274.html

[FSogol]

60. Simon is someone who is friends with the current admin and has a grudge against O'Malley.

Hardly an impartial critic.

O'Malley didn't advocate a return of zero tolerance policing in 2013.

[brush]

63. Pls read the Simon interview at the link. It's a good read

He was a police beat reporter during O'Malley's mass incarceration policy.

He was on the ground then and saw the effects it had on the lives of thousands of black males that were caught up in the dragnets — job prospects close to nil because of police record, eligibility for public housing eliminated, same with college Pell grant eligibility.

Many lives were ruined to boost crime reduction stats that were then parlayed into a run for governor.

Political ambition seemed to matter but not Black lives.

Like I said in my original post, O'Malley sudden has some serious baggage.

[FSogol]

66. I did read the article. It doesn't change facts.

O'Malley won reelection as Mayor of Baltimore in 2003 with 87% of the vote and when he ran for Governor...

The Baltimore Sun endorsed O'Malley, saying: "When he was first elected mayor in 1999, the former two-term city councilman inherited a city of rising crime, failing schools, and shrinking economic prospects. He was able to reverse course in all of these areas." The Washington Post criticized O'Malley for "not solving the problems of rampant crime and rough schools in Baltimore, but he put a dent in them,"

http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2006-10-29/news/0610290023_1_omalley-rising-crime-slots-proposal

[lumberjack_jeff]

44. I disagree. He's got TV time now that he couldn't afford to buy. n/t

[brush]

56. I'm not the only one saying this.

And as recently as 2013 he was urging the new mayor to re-instate the policy.

And I'm far from the only one criticizing O'Malley for this. Check out this link of an interview of David Simon, the creator of "The Wire" who is also a former newspaper police beat reporter during the O'Malley years.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/04/29/david-simon-martin-_n_7175274.html

[lumberjack_jeff]

57. Protecting the community from violent crime is what the community expects.

The "let 'em riot" approach of the current mayor isn't popular with the community at all.

You can't be intolerant of crime - by cops only.

[brush]

62. Pls read the David Simon interview in the link. It's apparent from your post that you didn't read it

No one is advocating a "let them riot" approach, just as no one should have advocated and "arrest everyone approach" which is what the mass incarceration policy did.

And many of those arrest were bogus but the black males arrested then had police records, their job prospects diminished to just about nil, even admission to public housing gone because of the police record, eligibility for college Pell grants eliminated — seems the politicians who initiate these mass incarceration programs don't care how they ruin lives but only about how their crime reduction stats look when they run for higher office.

Seems it backfired.

[lumberjack_jeff]

67. "social justice" as currently applied, has created many of these problems.

Barely half of African american boys graduate from high school. There are many reasons, all of which conspire to encourage it.
zero tolerance in schools
child support debt (in the three poorest zip codes in baltimore, noncustodial parents owe $111 million in child support, nearly 70% of whom have never paid anything)
no male role models. Social aid rules discourage having a father in the household.
Bias. Girls and boys from a very young age both agree that girls are better students. Male teens soon get the message that school isn't meant for them.

[FSogol]

68. BS. O'Malley moved away from that style of policing while still in that office.

You can't name a major city in the US that didn't employ zero tolerance policing in the 1990s-early 2000s.

Every major city switched to that form of policing in the mid to late 90s because of the drop in NYC's crime rate. By the mid 00s, everyone was moving away from it due to over-policing, arresting innocent people, profiling, etc. He employed those policies when he arrived as Mayor, but moved away from them for the reasons stated. The number of arrests dropped each year in Baltimore as did the crime rate.

By the end of his Mayoral term he moved away from that policy. He did not employ those methods as Governor. Unlike say, Giuliani, O'Malley changed, evolved, and modified his approach until he got a fairer/more workable system.

From a 2010 article in the Baltimore Sun:

A lawsuit filed in 2006 on behalf of 14 people alleged that their arrests indicated a broad pattern of abuse in which thousands of people were routinely arrested without probable cause. The suit also alleged that the so-called "zero tolerance" system was endorsed and enforced by city officials under the tenure of then-mayor Martin O'Malley.

In a joint statement with the plaintiffs, the police department said it has agreed to institute policies that reject the "zero tolerance policing" and establish a range of appropriate officer responses to minor offenses. The department will issue written directives that spell out the elements of common minor offenses to ensure that officers are aware of the scope of their authority, and will train every officer on the new policies for offenses, the statement said.

Arrests in the city have fallen by the tens of thousands since O'Malley became governor, and the ACLU and NAACP said in the statement that they recognize that the current city leadership has taken steps to address the issue and "applaud those efforts."

The efforts to link a current police brutality case in Baltimore to a man who hasn't been the mayor there for 7-1/2 years is pretty ridiculous.

[NYC_SKP]

3. I think we need robust debates and for as many to come forward as possible.

Reasons for this include:

Pressure on the frontrunner to have productive debates,

Coverage in case anyone has a health issue or drops out,

Presentation of the greatest number of ideas and solutions, and shedding light on the problems ignored by the media.

[onehandle]

7. I hope not. We need more voices. nt

[dembotoz]

9. that Lincoln chaffee guy maybe. but I am still curios about martin

I do like Bernie
I saw him speak last year
Not quite yet

[Agschmid]

12. I didn't personally see Chafee as a strong candidate either way.

[one_voice]

18. I'm still very interested in what...

he has to offer. So far we only have Hillary & Bernie. Total opposite ends of the spectrum. We need more people to jump in more views etc.

The more the merrier.

I'd like to hear from possible Veeps too.

[Koinos]

33. It may be over for O'Malley

Last edited Thu Apr 30, 2015, 01:16 PM - Edit history (1)

O'Malley has got to make a clear and detailed response to criticisms of his motives and actions as mayor of Baltimore. But even if he hits it out of the park on that one (I'm skeptical), by the time he announces, he may find that most of the progressive support, including Hollywood, has already shifted to Bernie. Truthfully, there may not be enough progressive money to support two progressives in the primary.

I like O'Malley and believe he is a decent man, but the Baltimore crisis is bringing back all the old demons to haunt him.

I like both candidates and would like to see both of them in the race; but frankly, I personally cannot afford to contribute to two opposing campaigns. So my choice is Bernie for now.

[Agschmid]

36. It's odd that on our side we seem hard pressed to support the same amount...

Of candidates. Though that isn't necessarily a bad thing.

[Koinos]

65. With billionaire backing...

Republican candidates (such as Cruz) didn't even need exploratory committees. One checkbook is enough to get the wackiest of them through the primary season. We the people, on the other hand, do not have nearly limitless resources. Our progressive candidates need lots of grassroots support and millions of small donations. Of course, if a billionaire puppeteer withdraws support from his purchased candidate, that candidate could run out of oxygen very fast.

[lumberjack_jeff]

34. no. n/t

[Agschmid]

37. Good.

[lumberjack_jeff]

43. One person is an easily dismissed lone nut.

Two people saying similar things are an interesting phenomenon.

But thousands are a movement.

Those of us demanding economic populist leadership are the movement, simply waiting for leaders.

I think this is a great time, [font color="blue" size="5" face="arial"]a pivotal time[/font], to be a Democrat.

[cherokeeprogressive]

38. I think Bernie can siphon enough votes from Hillary...

To make Martin O'Malley's candidacy viable.

[Agschmid]

39. So you see it as a three way race now?

[cherokeeprogressive]

58. Heck, this far out it's hard to tell.

I only know more houses have been lost by betting on sure things than anything else. Makes me scared to say one way or the other.

[KittyWampus]

46. Hope not. If he's serious he needs to fight back.

[Xyzse]

48. I don't understand.

I am not hearing much criticism about him here in Maryland.
I hang out in Baltimore quite a bit as well.

So, I am confused about all this.

[Agschmid]

54. I think (though it's just a theory) he lost some/a lot of support with...

Bernies announcement.

He was the anti-Hillary on some level and now he isn't the only one.

[Xyzse]

59. Ooooh... Ok.

Well, that's why there is a primary.

I like them both before Clinton.
I am a little bit more towards O'Malley since he was my governor/

Well, that's ok. I was just confused with the assessment that things would be over for him just because of that.

Heck, bunch of clowns in the GOP race stuck long past their expiration date, and there are individuals who kept in the Democratic primary even though they had little to no chance. So, I think it is all good.

[Agschmid]

61. Agree.

[FSogol]

64. Only on DU. Look at the 1st 5 primaries:

Iowa caucuses
New Hampshire
Colorado caucuses
Minnesota caucuses
New York

To be a viable candidate you must get a 1st or 2nd place in these. Does Bernie do that? O'Malley probably takes 1 or 2 in all of these. (As does HRC of course)

Then look at the 2nd 5:

Utah
Nevada caucuses
South Carolina
North Carolina
Michigan

Same story, right?

HRC has 75% of the support of the party right now. Whether she keeps that is up to how she and everyone else runs their campaigns. It won't be settled for a while and won't be settled on DU (Right President Kucinich?). We are at the start of the race. It is not possible to see the finish from here.

[Koinos]

53. Just Received an Email from O'Malley's PAC

This email speaks to the present crisis in Baltimore.

You can read the full text here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/10026596140

And just found it online here: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/gov-martin-omalley/we-are-capable-of-more_b_7179780.html