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Tom Rinaldo

(22,913 posts)
Wed Apr 29, 2015, 01:09 PM Apr 2015

There in NO Downside to Bernie running. NONE

Not unless you are a third way blue dog Democrat who doesn't want populist issues discussed. It doesn't matter if you support Hillary Clinton, Martin O'Malley, or Elizabeth Warren as your first choice for the Democratic nomination. It doesn't matter if you believe Bernie Sanders has a realistic chance of winning the presidency or no chance in hell. It doesn't matter whether Sanders can raise moderate or large sums of campaign funds during the primaries. It is all good under any of those scenarios.

Bernie is fearless when it comes to talking about the issues that matter to ordinary Americans. The entire thrust of his campaign is to raise those issues. There is no upside or temptation for him to hedge his critique of the American economic and political system. He is not beholden to those with big money because they already know fully where he stands and Bernie stands with everyday voters, not fat cats. Bernie has nothing to lose by speaking truth to power. In fact it is the only thing that draws attention to him in the first place, so we can count on him doing it.

Does that make him nonviable as a candidate? That is subject to debate of course, but the truth is that it doesn't matter. Regardless of how viable or nonviable Bernie Sanders ultimately is, it is still extremely positive for him to enter the presidential race. Let's look at three possible rough scenarios. 1) Bernie enters the race but is unable to win any contests. 2) Bernie enters the race and makes it somewhat competitive but comes up short and doesn't win the Democratic nomination. 3) Bernie enters the race and actually wins the Democratic nomination. That kind of covers it.

The smart money, for whatever that is worth, for now all comes down for option one. Let's assume for a moment that's right. I would still be thrilled to have Bernie running because Bernie is about as good as anyone now on the national scene at framing issues in terms that clearly explain to 99% of Americans how 1% of Americans have the system totally rigged against them. That by itself is priceless to those of us who whose voices often are smothered out by big money and corporate control of the political system. Bernie will not only raise the issues that need to be raised, he will raise them in stark understandable terms that have the potential to re-frame the political debate along much more progressive fault lines. As a sitting U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders will be included in any Democratic Party primary debates, and he will get equal time with Hillary Clinton and any other Democratic candidates to make his case to Democratic voters and, to some extent, to the larger public also. This is all good stuff regardless of the outcome.

Because Bernie Sanders is already so marginalized and discounted by the mainstream media it won't be considered a repudiation of his beliefs if he doesn't actually win, much like it didn't set back the beliefs of the American Socialist Party when Norman Thomas failed to become a "viable candidate" for president in an earlier era. Instead major planks of the Socialist platform were incorporated virtually intact into that of the Democratic Party in subsequent years. Even in so called "defeat" Bernie Sanders can be a game hanger for the future Democratic Party.

If conventional thinking holds true and Hillary Clinton is all but certain to end up as the Democratic nominee, a challenge by Sanders won't hurt her. That is true whether or not the Democratic race ever becomes legitimately competitive. Obama wasn't hurt by the long protracted contest to wrest the 2008 nomination away from Hillary then, and most observers believe that Hillary Clinton sharpened her own campaign skills from almost sleep walking through the early stages when the nomination appeared to be hers for the taking to becoming tough as nails to claw her way back into the race after coming in third in Iowa.

That speaks to option number two above, a scenario under which Sanders makes a competitive run for the nomination but falls short. A remarkable, honorable and unfortunately rather rare thing about Bernie Sanders is that he is a very clean campaigner. Bernie doesn't throw mud, he argues the merits of an issue instead. I feel solid in saying that Bernie Sanders has never attacked President Obama fro the left for example. What he has done on occasion is pointedly disagree with the President on certain aspects of certain issues, not the man himself or his integrity or the sincerity of his basic Democratic values. Sanders will not engage in avoidable character assassination of Hillary Clinton or any other Democrat he runs against. He will fight for what he believes in, which in very large part is what the Democratic base believes in. Whoever wins the Democratic nomination will need to mobilize the Democratic base in order to win the General Election. Sanders can help that person prepare her or him self for that task by illuminating what Democratic voters care about and respond too.

What about scenario number three, Sanders actually winning the Democratic nomination? While I personally think it is rather unlikely, that possibility does not seem quite as far fetched to me as it does to the usual suspect talking heads. Sanders may actually catch on fire. Because he is so very different from most other Democrats who have sought the nomination in recent years, and because the Democratic field is shaping up to be much less crowded in 2016 than it was in 2004 or 2008, the tried and true metrics by which his chances are now being appraised may end up seriously off base and lacking in accuracy. If Sanders significantly outperforms expectations early in the race that could lead to a snowball effect with him continuing to gain momentum. Again, I don't need to believe this scenario is likely in order to support Sanders running for President, but I don't completely discount it either.

What would that mean? Well for one thing it would expose Hillary Clinton as a weak candidate for the times that confront us now, and if Bernie beats her even her hard core supporters will have to admit that she had serious flaws that they didn't adequately appreciate. If Hillary can't beat Bernie, with her high stature and all that money behind her, we will be fortunate indeed that Sanders exposed her shortcomings before she became the Democratic standard bearer in 2016. And if Bernie wins the Democratic nomination it means all bets are off on the conventional wisdom of how much money a major party candidate will need to raise to win the general election in the political climate that will then prevail. If Bernie Sanders wins the nomination he will become iconic in the process. He would be riding a cultural political tsunami to have ever gotten that far to begin with.

I mentioned Martin O'Malley and Elizabeth Warren above also. Anyone hoping one of those Democrats will become our 2016 nominee have nothing to fear from a Bernie Sanders candidacy if they really believe their guy or gal has the right stuff to begin with. Let's start by stating the obvious. Warren has clearly said she has no intention or running for president in 2016. I don't see any way that can possibly change without Sanders in the race. Warren isn't going to wage an uphill fight against Hillary for the nomination, she's made that abundantly clear.For those old enough to remember it, once upon a time RFK made it pretty clear he wasn't going to run an uphill fight to depose LBJ either. Then Eugene McCarthy took on that long shot quest and exposed LBJ's weakness, and that changed all the standard calculations. If Clinton starts to sputter against Sanders possibly that could change for Warren, even if Hillary still is besting Bernie (Johnson did beat McCarthy in the New Hampshire primary - but McCarthy's strong showing ultimately convinced LBJ not to run for re-election). And as for O'Malley, for him to have any chance to defeat Clinton for the nomination he would probably need some help in taking her down, kind of like the Edwards candidacy helped Obama defeat Hillary in 2008. O'Malley himself is rather untested on the national stage, so if Sanders can overtake O'Malley's bid to be a viable alternative to Clinton, that would speak volumes about how strong a candidate he actually is, and it would be best to find that out sooner rather than later.

No matter how I look at it, I see no reason why any progressively minded Democrat shouldn't be delighted at the prospect of Bernie Sanders entering the race for the 2016 Democratic nomination. Count me firmly in the Sanders camp.

47 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
There in NO Downside to Bernie running. NONE (Original Post) Tom Rinaldo Apr 2015 OP
I have seen no evidence of anyone 'minding' if Bernie runs on DU. onehandle Apr 2015 #1
I like Bernie Sanders. Buzz Clik Apr 2015 #4
It's catched in terms of Bernie not being viable so "nothing to see here - just keep moving" Tom Rinaldo Apr 2015 #5
I have. A long thread of it- cali Apr 2015 #11
I think Hillary is glad, no sole attention on her. Bernie can bring shit up that she cant NoJusticeNoPeace Apr 2015 #27
Good point. I have no doubt Hillary genuinely is more of a centrist than Bernie... Tom Rinaldo Apr 2015 #46
Same here. The Sanders crowd seems to have a vivid imagination MaggieD Apr 2015 #37
There is a downside for Hillary: she might not win. Maedhros Apr 2015 #2
I don't think I'm the "correct" kind of Democrat. Buzz Clik Apr 2015 #3
Come July 2016 at the latest, after the Demoratic Convention... Tom Rinaldo Apr 2015 #7
When hell freezes over. Buzz Clik Apr 2015 #10
Sooo... you support TPP... because you can't read it? lumberjack_jeff Apr 2015 #14
Way to go!!!!! Buzz Clik Apr 2015 #18
No. I oppose any and all laws that I am not allowed to read. lumberjack_jeff Apr 2015 #20
Well, thanks for the undeserved condemnation, nevertheless. Buzz Clik Apr 2015 #21
Once those who understand the mistakes of NAFTA and GATT have read it... lumberjack_jeff Apr 2015 #24
Condemnation of me is fully deserved... Buzz Clik Apr 2015 #25
I didn't say condemnation of you. I was referring to TPP. lumberjack_jeff Apr 2015 #34
a "third way blue dog Democrat" SwankyXomb Apr 2015 #32
I'm glad he's running because he'll influence the conversation, but there is a downside... joeybee12 Apr 2015 #6
If he doesn't win I'm confident Bernie will endorse the nominee Tom Rinaldo Apr 2015 #16
I'm sure he will, too... joeybee12 Apr 2015 #22
"He has no chance" - Keep telling yourself that. L0oniX Apr 2015 #38
Tell me how much name recognition he has with the general public... joeybee12 Apr 2015 #43
Yeah "name recognition" works real well for dynasties too. L0oniX Apr 2015 #44
I'm glad two people is considered a dynasty... joeybee12 Apr 2015 #45
Stick with your name recognition quality POTUS choice. L0oniX Apr 2015 #47
The more the merrier. JaneyVee Apr 2015 #8
Where is it that people are claiming Bernie should not run Hutzpa Apr 2015 #9
Can you point to where I said that there were? Tom Rinaldo Apr 2015 #12
Very well articulated. kentuck Apr 2015 #13
A Clinton/Sanders ticket might be interesting. ..nt TeeYiYi Apr 2015 #15
No, IMO Bernie should either be President or a Senator. VP would be a waste of him. djean111 Apr 2015 #31
"Third way" and "blue dog" are two totally different things Recursion Apr 2015 #17
FFS, another straw-man post about the many mythical DU'ers so opposed to Sanders running. KittyWampus Apr 2015 #19
Yes it seems it was too long for you to bother reading it. Tom Rinaldo Apr 2015 #35
I skipped after the first paragraph for the same reason as KittyWampus MaggieD Apr 2015 #39
OK, but I think you jumped to a false conclusion Tom Rinaldo Apr 2015 #40
I rec your post! BrotherIvan Apr 2015 #23
You think.... MaggieD Apr 2015 #41
He is a Democratic Socialist BrotherIvan Apr 2015 #42
Totally agree! ananda Apr 2015 #26
But... but... What if he becomes President! MannyGoldstein Apr 2015 #28
No prob. Juat tell him you are "unable to"... Tom Rinaldo Apr 2015 #36
Thanks! I've been trying to make this point too. The Truth wins, even if it's a small victory. arcane1 Apr 2015 #29
I am delighted he is running ghostsinthemachine Apr 2015 #30
I agree- his simply *being* in the race will force discusssions that would not be had otherwise... friendly_iconoclast Apr 2015 #33

Tom Rinaldo

(22,913 posts)
5. It's catched in terms of Bernie not being viable so "nothing to see here - just keep moving"
Wed Apr 29, 2015, 01:17 PM
Apr 2015

If that conventional thinking changes most likely there will be more attacks on him, but mostly this was just a good occasion before he formally announces to lay out how this really is a win-win-win development for virtually any Democrat.

But I agree that the clear majority of DUers welcome Bernie into the race, now that it is clear he will no be taking the third party route.

 

cali

(114,904 posts)
11. I have. A long thread of it-
Wed Apr 29, 2015, 01:36 PM
Apr 2015

my thread: "I am not a registered democrat....."

and in other threads as well. Lots of repeated spoiler "concerns" from people who have been informed that he has said he won't be a spoiler. And more.

Also one strong HRC supporter who used an anti-semitic dog whistle in one post, and claimed falsely that Bernie is an "ally of Bibi's", in another

NoJusticeNoPeace

(5,018 posts)
27. I think Hillary is glad, no sole attention on her. Bernie can bring shit up that she cant
Wed Apr 29, 2015, 02:15 PM
Apr 2015

maybe, then she can go along with it and use the people as an excuse.

I think her heart may be where his is in many ways anyway.

No, this is good for everybody as long as we Democrats dont start acting like little shits, like the little shits that stayed home in 2010

Tom Rinaldo

(22,913 posts)
46. Good point. I have no doubt Hillary genuinely is more of a centrist than Bernie...
Wed Apr 29, 2015, 06:23 PM
Apr 2015

but I also think she has some genuine progressive instincts also thrown into her mix. A Sanders candidacy allows her to lean further left to not get too badly outflanked with the base. They may help her to reconnect more with activist priorities should she go on to win the nomination and need our support in the general.

 

Buzz Clik

(38,437 posts)
3. I don't think I'm the "correct" kind of Democrat.
Wed Apr 29, 2015, 01:14 PM
Apr 2015
  • I don't hate TPP (because I haven't read it)
  • I don't think Hillary is a corporatist (is that even a word)?
  • I don't view Bernie as the the second coming of atheist Jeebus
  • Elizabeth Warren is not my role model
  • I don't believe in purity tests for Democrats
  • And, I can never remember what a "third way blue dog Democrat" is

    I just want to fit in.

  • Tom Rinaldo

    (22,913 posts)
    7. Come July 2016 at the latest, after the Demoratic Convention...
    Wed Apr 29, 2015, 01:19 PM
    Apr 2015

    I predict no matter who has the nomination you will feel you fit in very nicely here

     

    Buzz Clik

    (38,437 posts)
    10. When hell freezes over.
    Wed Apr 29, 2015, 01:27 PM
    Apr 2015

    Of the three names mentioned the most here -- Clinton, Sanders, and Warren -- only Sanders strikes me as NOT being awful. Clinton is friggin' untrustworthy for her constant triangulating, and Warren's grandstanding about TPP is making me puke (there is probably something else at play, but taken at face value, it's nauseating).

    So, yeah, go Bernie.

    But enough of the "us or them" bullshit. Third way, blue dog, neoliberals.

     

    lumberjack_jeff

    (33,224 posts)
    14. Sooo... you support TPP... because you can't read it?
    Wed Apr 29, 2015, 01:43 PM
    Apr 2015

    You think that it should be fast tracked on that basis?

     

    Buzz Clik

    (38,437 posts)
    18. Way to go!!!!!
    Wed Apr 29, 2015, 01:50 PM
    Apr 2015

    Liking it before being able to read it is just as fucking stupid as hating it before being able to read it.

    I don't fit either case. How about you?

     

    lumberjack_jeff

    (33,224 posts)
    20. No. I oppose any and all laws that I am not allowed to read.
    Wed Apr 29, 2015, 01:53 PM
    Apr 2015

    Naive credulity is not my default setting.

    As a basic principle, I think it's less stupid.

     

    Buzz Clik

    (38,437 posts)
    21. Well, thanks for the undeserved condemnation, nevertheless.
    Wed Apr 29, 2015, 01:55 PM
    Apr 2015

    That is definitely your default setting.

     

    lumberjack_jeff

    (33,224 posts)
    24. Once those who understand the mistakes of NAFTA and GATT have read it...
    Wed Apr 29, 2015, 02:10 PM
    Apr 2015

    ... and can convince me that it's not more of the same, I may support it.

    Until then, the condemnation is fully deserved.

     

    Buzz Clik

    (38,437 posts)
    25. Condemnation of me is fully deserved...
    Wed Apr 29, 2015, 02:12 PM
    Apr 2015

    .... even though I told you that you were wrong in your assumption. Very nice.

    I strongly suggest you open up your settings and change your defaults.

     

    lumberjack_jeff

    (33,224 posts)
    34. I didn't say condemnation of you. I was referring to TPP.
    Wed Apr 29, 2015, 02:30 PM
    Apr 2015

    DU suffers from an excess of personalizing every argument.

     

    joeybee12

    (56,177 posts)
    6. I'm glad he's running because he'll influence the conversation, but there is a downside...
    Wed Apr 29, 2015, 01:18 PM
    Apr 2015

    He has no chance, which is fine, but he'll have lots of zealots unwilling to work for the eventual nominee...lost of energy spent and then disappointment.

    Tom Rinaldo

    (22,913 posts)
    16. If he doesn't win I'm confident Bernie will endorse the nominee
    Wed Apr 29, 2015, 01:45 PM
    Apr 2015

    Anyone who remains unwilling to work for the eventual nominee at that point wouldn't have worked for that person anyway in my opinion. It's not like Bernie is waking activists up to reasons not to support more mainstream Democrats, that preexists his decision to run. The same argument was made against Howard Dean in 2004, that he would drain activist energy away from the eventual nominee, and on whole it was bogus. People are individuals, but I think Bernie would keep more people in the party actively than those who might get driven away after supporting him - I think it would be a net positive for the final nominee.

     

    joeybee12

    (56,177 posts)
    43. Tell me how much name recognition he has with the general public...
    Wed Apr 29, 2015, 05:14 PM
    Apr 2015

    Step out of your DU bubble for a moment.

     

    L0oniX

    (31,493 posts)
    44. Yeah "name recognition" works real well for dynasties too.
    Wed Apr 29, 2015, 06:09 PM
    Apr 2015


    People vote over name recognition ...the pathetic vote. Maybe we should have a king and just keep it in the family.

    Tom Rinaldo

    (22,913 posts)
    12. Can you point to where I said that there were?
    Wed Apr 29, 2015, 01:39 PM
    Apr 2015

    I was stating an opinion about the positive effects of a Sanders candidacy on the Democratic Party and the nation. and I did so by pointing to something that I find a little unusual That's different than trying to rebut anything negative about any reaction to a Sanders candidacy, it is stating a positive. It's a long OP but there is not a word implying that anyone is claiming Bernie shouldn't run.

    What seems noteworthy to me, for example, is how a Sanders candidacy can strengthen the chances of any potential Democratic nominee in 2016 in ways that not all losing primary candidates always are able to. I think it is good for Hillary Clinton to have Sanders run. I think it is good for Elizabeth Warren to have Sanders run, etc. Unlike some here I do have concerns about excessive negative character attacks on Hillary Clinton should she go on to win the nomination. I trust Bernie not to go there, I'm not certain I can say the same about Webb or Chaffee or O'Malley for example.

    Recursion

    (56,582 posts)
    17. "Third way" and "blue dog" are two totally different things
    Wed Apr 29, 2015, 01:49 PM
    Apr 2015

    I'm still not sure how they got conflated in the DU mindshare.

    But, I agree: the more, the merrier, and I'm very glad Senator Sanders is running, even though he's not the candidate I support.

     

    KittyWampus

    (55,894 posts)
    19. FFS, another straw-man post about the many mythical DU'ers so opposed to Sanders running.
    Wed Apr 29, 2015, 01:51 PM
    Apr 2015

    And a wall of text to boot.

    Tom Rinaldo

    (22,913 posts)
    35. Yes it seems it was too long for you to bother reading it.
    Wed Apr 29, 2015, 02:36 PM
    Apr 2015

    See post number 12 above. That one is not that much longer than this one.

     

    MaggieD

    (7,393 posts)
    39. I skipped after the first paragraph for the same reason as KittyWampus
    Wed Apr 29, 2015, 04:01 PM
    Apr 2015

    Sanders supporters seem to have a martyr complex for no discernible reason. I guess many of them spend day after day bashing Democrats, and as a result, have a bad case of projection? No one is bashing Dem primary candidates that I can see, except the HRC bashers.

    Tom Rinaldo

    (22,913 posts)
    40. OK, but I think you jumped to a false conclusion
    Wed Apr 29, 2015, 04:08 PM
    Apr 2015

    I am not a fire breathing Bernie supporter with a complex. Some around here may still recall that for most of the 2008 primary season I was a major Hillary supporter on DU. The candidates I wanted didn't run (Clark, Gore, Feingold) and I didn't think there was that much difference between Obama and Clinton on the issues, but thought Hillary was more ready to fight against Republican obstruction that I knew was in store for any Democrat who became President.

    I would rather not bash Democrats unless they are really screwing up bad because I don't like fattening the Republican play book against us. I trust the kind of campaign that Bernie will run, that's a lot of what I wrote about above.

    BrotherIvan

    (9,126 posts)
    23. I rec your post!
    Wed Apr 29, 2015, 01:59 PM
    Apr 2015

    Very good points here that cannot be said enough. There is a concerted effort to drown out any support for anyone but the frontrunner. "He can't win!" "He's too old!" "Republicans will hate him!" "Socialist!!!"Because we should all be checking in with batshit republicans about who is electable. Because they can't come up with a good candidate for themselves, so we should let them pick ours.

    And my favorite, the idea that we are so helpless in the face of corporate money to get the candidate that truly matches our values and must settle for the one who can raise the most money is EXACTLY the reason why there needs to be a groundswell of support of Senator Sanders. It should not be up to the rich and corporations to decide who are leaders are. Don't fall for the bullshit. Money doesn't equal best candidate for the job in any way.

    If one steps out side of the game of politics for a moment, and does what a citizen should do when contemplating giving their vote to a canditate, then one should ask who best represents my values? First, watch this video and let me know if you don't nod along and then end with a fist in the air shouting. Unfortunately the sound is low, but the text follows.

    Senator Sanders on the Iraq War vote:

    http://www.sanders.senate.gov/video/flashback-rep-bernie-sanders-opposes-iraq-war

     

    MaggieD

    (7,393 posts)
    41. You think....
    Wed Apr 29, 2015, 04:08 PM
    Apr 2015

    ... that having an opinion that a socialist is going to have a very hard time winning the nomination is an attempt "to drown out any support for anyone but the frontrunner." Huh?

    How so? I mean it's just reality. It's not a dig on him. I think you are imagining things. I wish him the best, but I think it will be a very big uphill climb. I'm going to bet the vast majority of people (outside the insular group of his supporters here) would agree. His supporters would do well to get on the reality train on that issue. No offense intended.

    BrotherIvan

    (9,126 posts)
    42. He is a Democratic Socialist
    Wed Apr 29, 2015, 04:30 PM
    Apr 2015

    Big difference. And it is up to his supporters, such as myself, to educate the difference.

    And whenever anyone tells me about how I need to swallow *their* "reality" it is always good for a laugh.

     

    MannyGoldstein

    (34,589 posts)
    28. But... but... What if he becomes President!
    Wed Apr 29, 2015, 02:17 PM
    Apr 2015

    Then I'll have to work for a living!

    That ain't right!

    Regards,

    TWM

    Tom Rinaldo

    (22,913 posts)
    36. No prob. Juat tell him you are "unable to"...
    Wed Apr 29, 2015, 02:56 PM
    Apr 2015

    ...he has a bleeding heart, that should work. His pinko government wouldn't stigmatize you by asking any embarrassing follow up questions.

    ghostsinthemachine

    (3,569 posts)
    30. I am delighted he is running
    Wed Apr 29, 2015, 02:20 PM
    Apr 2015

    Someone needs to keep hounding the other candidates from the left. He cannot win, but he needs to keep talking on a national stage.

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