Krugman: Dangers of National Unity

[ProSense]

Dangers of National Unity

A thought on the Greek election results: what we’re seeing there is the danger of getting all the Very Serious People together in a national unity government when the Very Serious People are, in fact, all wrong about what needs to be done.

Backing up a minute: I don’t think you want to read European elections in terms of any particular ideological tide. This is very much a Larry Bartels world in which voters toss out incumbents and reward insurgents if the economy is bad, never mind the specifics of their platforms. Hollande’s victory in France is no more a harbinger of a general leftward shift than Rajoy’s victory in Spain a little while ago heralded a general rightward shift; these are just the “outs” benefiting from the fact that they aren’t in, and the economy stinks.

But now consider Greece, which had a government of national unity — an alliance between the center-right and the center-left, dedicated to following what the VSPs consider responsible policies. Think of it as Michael Bloomberg with retsina. Sounds great, doesn’t it? (Not to me, but I’m not a Serious Person).

The trouble is that the responsible policies aren’t — the austerity program that has defined being Serious in Europe is an abject (and predictable) failure. So voters take their anger out by voting against the insiders. And since all the respectable people are inside the political tent, backing and being identified with failed policies, that means a big vote for extremists right and left.

And yes, the echoes of the 1930s are very strong.

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/05/07/dangers-of-national-unity/

Via Calculated Risk:

<...>

The polls have closed in Greece and preliminary results will be released soon. The Athens News has a live blog of the results. The big surprise - so far - is it looks like Syriza will finish 2nd with Pasok 3rd. Here are some exit poll numbers (any party with 3% or more of the vote will receive seats):

Public Issue for Skai

(min-max, in %)

New Democracy 20.5-24.5
Radical Left Coalition (Syriza) 14-18
Pasok 13-17
Communist Party 7-10.5
Independent Greeks 7-10
Democratic Left 6-9
Golden Dawn 5-8
Ecogreens 2-4
Popular Orthodox Rally (Laos) 2-4
Drasi 1-3
Democratic Alliance 1-3

The 1st place party gets a 50 seat bonus (out of 300 total seats) and the parties split the remaining seats by the percent of the vote. So New Democracy will probably have around 110 to 120 seats (if I understand correctly), and they need a coalition partner to form a majority (probably Pasok). It is a mess.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/05/exit-polls-hollande-wins-french-runoff.html

[JDPriestly]

1. And yes, the echoes of the 1930s are very strong.

So true, true, true.

I have been warning about that for a long time here on DU. People don't realize how similar to the 1930s our period is because they haven't talked to people who lived through the 1930s.

And yes, all the surveillance and Homeland Security mechanisms will get into the wrong hands, and our country will pay dearly. We citizens will suffer because as our government resorts to paranoia and insulates itself against truth and dissent of all kinds.

The crisis between 9/11 and the crash of 2008 was very badly handled, very badly.

[muriel_volestrangler]

2. We have actual results, not just exit poll projections, for Greece

GREECE RESULTS
After 99.9% of the vote

Party Share Seats
New Democracy 18.85% 108
Syriza 16.78% 52
Pasok 13.18% 41
Independent Greeks 10.6% 33
KKE (Communist) 8.48% 26
Golden Dawn 6.97% 21
Democratic Left 6.1% 19

Turnout 65.09%

Source: Greek interior ministry

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-17975370

Which means New Democracy and Pasok do not form a majority on their own. And since all the other parties have been anti-austerity in the election, that means a lot.

[ProSense]

3. Thanks. Interesting:

Coalition negotiations can take place over three days. If they fail, the party in second place can try to form a coalition, and if still unsuccessful, the third party will receive the mandate.

If still no coalition emerges, Greece will hold another election - a prospect which would alarm the country's international creditors.

The ability of any new government to carry on with the austerity programme will be crucial for Greece's continued access to bailout funds from the EU, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund - the so-called troika.