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Some Democrats Who Could Step Up If Hillary Isn’t Ready For Hillary
Some Democrats Who Could Step Up If Hillary Isn’t Ready For Hillary
3/27/2015
Hillary Clinton is probably going to run for president, and she’s probably going to be the Democratic nominee in 2016. Both those things are likely. But let’s say Clinton falters — some major scandal comes to light, or she has health problems. Who could step in?
Martin O’Malley, Bernie Sanders and Jim Webb are preparing for such a possibility. But they’re not exactly political powerhouses, and so we come to another question: Is the Democratic bench really that weak?
One way to look at that question is via fundraising. A late entrant in 2016 would need to raise money quickly, and the ability to raise money is a decent proxy for appeal and organizing strength. It’s part of the reason Elizabeth Warren is thought of as such a powerful force in the Democratic Party. She raised over $42 million in her 2012 bid for Senate.
... many of the candidates who greatly outperformed fundraising expectations are the ones we normally talk about as contenders for the presidency. Here’s the data in full.
And here are the top 25 Democrats who beat expectations:
EXPECTED AMOUNT RAISED ACTUAL AMOUNT RAISED DIFFERENCE
Elizabeth Warren $24.4m $42.5m +$18.1m
Andrew Cuomo 30.7 48.0 +17.3
Al Franken 17.2 30.8 +13.6
Harry Reid 13.6 24.8 +11.2
Sherrod Brown 18.1 24.8 +6.8
Bob Menendez 10.7 17.3 +6.7
Chuck Schumer 13.4 19.5 +6.1
Deval Patrick 11.8 16.3 +4.5
Jeanne Shaheen 12.2 16.5 +4.3
Claire McCaskill 17.0 21.1 +4.1
Bob Casey 10.7 14.1 +3.5
Tammy Baldwin 11.3 14.6 +3.4
Chris Murphy 7.6 10.5 +3.0
Joe Donnelly 2.8 5.7 +2.8
Mazie Hirono 2.8 5.5 +2.8
Patty Murray 14.8 17.1 +2.4
Kirsten Gillibrand 13.4 15.7 +2.3
Jeff Merkley 10.0 12.0 +2.0
Cory Booker 16.2 17.7 +1.5
Earl Ray Tomblin 6.2 7.7 +1.4
Jon Tester 12.0 13.4 +1.4
Mike Beebe 3.7 5.1 +1.4
Steve Beshear 9.5 10.6 +1.1
John Kitzhaber 4.2 5.3 +1.1
Brian Schatz 5.1 6.1 +1.0
....Senators Sherrod Brown of Ohio and Al Franken of Minnesota both raised a lot more money in their 2012 and 2014 campaigns, respectively, than we might have expected. Would they be running in 2016 if Clinton wasn’t?
Some journalists have, in fact, wondered why Brown doesn’t run. He’s seen as a darling of the progressive wing of the Democratic Party, and he’s managed to win two terms in Ohio, a crucial swing state.....
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/some-democrats-who-could-step-up-if-hillary-isnt-ready-for-hillary/
3/27/2015
Hillary Clinton is probably going to run for president, and she’s probably going to be the Democratic nominee in 2016. Both those things are likely. But let’s say Clinton falters — some major scandal comes to light, or she has health problems. Who could step in?
Martin O’Malley, Bernie Sanders and Jim Webb are preparing for such a possibility. But they’re not exactly political powerhouses, and so we come to another question: Is the Democratic bench really that weak?
One way to look at that question is via fundraising. A late entrant in 2016 would need to raise money quickly, and the ability to raise money is a decent proxy for appeal and organizing strength. It’s part of the reason Elizabeth Warren is thought of as such a powerful force in the Democratic Party. She raised over $42 million in her 2012 bid for Senate.
... many of the candidates who greatly outperformed fundraising expectations are the ones we normally talk about as contenders for the presidency. Here’s the data in full.
And here are the top 25 Democrats who beat expectations:
EXPECTED AMOUNT RAISED ACTUAL AMOUNT RAISED DIFFERENCE
Elizabeth Warren $24.4m $42.5m +$18.1m
Andrew Cuomo 30.7 48.0 +17.3
Al Franken 17.2 30.8 +13.6
Harry Reid 13.6 24.8 +11.2
Sherrod Brown 18.1 24.8 +6.8
Bob Menendez 10.7 17.3 +6.7
Chuck Schumer 13.4 19.5 +6.1
Deval Patrick 11.8 16.3 +4.5
Jeanne Shaheen 12.2 16.5 +4.3
Claire McCaskill 17.0 21.1 +4.1
Bob Casey 10.7 14.1 +3.5
Tammy Baldwin 11.3 14.6 +3.4
Chris Murphy 7.6 10.5 +3.0
Joe Donnelly 2.8 5.7 +2.8
Mazie Hirono 2.8 5.5 +2.8
Patty Murray 14.8 17.1 +2.4
Kirsten Gillibrand 13.4 15.7 +2.3
Jeff Merkley 10.0 12.0 +2.0
Cory Booker 16.2 17.7 +1.5
Earl Ray Tomblin 6.2 7.7 +1.4
Jon Tester 12.0 13.4 +1.4
Mike Beebe 3.7 5.1 +1.4
Steve Beshear 9.5 10.6 +1.1
John Kitzhaber 4.2 5.3 +1.1
Brian Schatz 5.1 6.1 +1.0
....Senators Sherrod Brown of Ohio and Al Franken of Minnesota both raised a lot more money in their 2012 and 2014 campaigns, respectively, than we might have expected. Would they be running in 2016 if Clinton wasn’t?
Some journalists have, in fact, wondered why Brown doesn’t run. He’s seen as a darling of the progressive wing of the Democratic Party, and he’s managed to win two terms in Ohio, a crucial swing state.....
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/some-democrats-who-could-step-up-if-hillary-isnt-ready-for-hillary/
Or even if Hillary is Ready For Hillary, some of these Democrats could step up.
10 replies
= new reply since forum marked as read
= new reply since forum marked as read
Totally agree. 
