Why Harry Reid Chose Chuck Schumer

[ErikJ]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/why-harry-reid-chose-chuck-schumer/

Why did Harry Reid pick Chuck Schumer over Dick Durbin, another member of the Democratic leadership, to succeed him as the party’s leader in the Senate? From a statistical standpoint, three numbers jump out.

First, Schumer and Reid have very similar voting records. According to DW-Nominate scores1 taken since Reid first became Democratic leader in 2005, Schumer has voted more in sync with Reid than any other Democratic senator (not counting senators who have announced they will retire). Durbin, by contrast, was the 25th most like Reid.

Second, Schumer is a relentless fundraiser, which is one of the main responsibilities of a party’s leader. Previously, I looked at how much Democratic governors and senators exceeded fundraising expectations2 in their last reelection campaign. Even controlling for Schumer’s wealthy fundraising base in New York, he still ranked seventh in besting expectations. Durbin, on the other hand, was the 42nd best fundraiser out of the 67 Democrats I examined.

Third, Schumer has been a tireless advocate in the media, which makes him well-positioned to articulate Democrats’ position on various policy issues. Among Senate Democrats, Schumer has made the second most appearances on the Sunday political talk shows (although this is one metric where Durbin comes out on top; he’s No. 1). Schumer has double the number of Facebook and Twitter followers as Durbin. In fact, Schumer has more than double the Twitter followers of any other senator thought to be in serious contention to be Democratic leader.

Schumer is the one plausible candidate for Democratic leader who combines ideological closeness with Reid with fundraising and media prowess. And his path into the position seems almost assured; Durbin has already indicated he’ll back Schumer.

[Chan790]

1. I'm still hoping someone primaries the corporatist SOB.

He can't serve if he gets voted out.

As a Nutmegger I will move to NY, even if it means sleeping on a floor, to work for the campaign of the best candidate to primary Schumer.

[brooklynite]

7. "To Dream the Impossible Dream....."

Who would you consider acceptably progressive with the organization to run against Schumer?

[Chan790]

9. Let's worry about acceptably progressive for now...

find the right candidate and we can assemble a suitable organization.

I'm just sick of these asshole corporatists...those of us on the left are told "you have to vote for them in the GE; the time to get rid of them is the primaries." Then the primaries come around and we're told "Don't you dare primary them! We need their organization and the money they pull in; fratricide is bad for the party...we need the most "electable" (read: conservative) candidates we can get."

Nope. If you want us to back a polished turd of a candidate not worth electing like Hillary Clinton in the 2016 Presidential election...you've got to do your part down the ballot for progressive values to spike these dead-weight bad Democrats like Schumer.

[brooklynite]

11. I don't think you understand...I don't care WHO you back for President

I support Hillary Clinton because I think she's the candidate in the pack with the best chance of beating the Republicans and she's still a respectable candidate on mainstream Democratic principles. If you want to insist that you'll "never for for her", go for it: it won't make a bit of difference what some angry bloggers say, because there are millions of other Democrats who support her enthusiastically. My only observation here is that people who advocate not voting for her (assuming she's the nominees) are treading close to Skinner's line.

Now, with respect to Schumer, I have a simple principle: I support candidates, as progressive as possible WHERE THEY CAN WIN. And in the real world of politics, you CAN'T just "assemble a suitable organization" and defeat a popular incumbent Senator. Think about how excited people got about Zephyr Teachout running again Gov. Cuomo, (fare less popular)and think about the result. Might have made you feel good, but at the end of the day, Cuomo still had a clear win. Since my money isn't infinite, and since there are a lot of race that ARE winnable, I won't be tilting at windmills.

[PoliticAverse]

2. "Schumer is a relentless fundraiser" - follow the Wall Street money... n/t

[gratuitous]

4. "Schumer is a tireless advocate in the media"

I won't discount the importance of having your name and number in the cell phone of a teevee show producer. Hell, they probably all have John McCain on speed dial. But that's a self-perpetuating deal, and doesn't have anything to do with effectiveness (How many bills have John McCain's name on them?). Schumer's on teevee a lot because Schumer's on teevee a lot. Someone else would be getting called if he (or she, right Sen. Murray?) were the Senate Minority Leader, every bit as much as Schumer.

[ErikJ]

5. and "has more than double the Twitter followers of any other senator..

thought to be in serious contention"

[KamaAina]

3. Schumer (D-Wall St.) is a relentless fundraiser?

Who would have thought?

[Historic NY]

6. Schumer is one of my Senators....

he at the drop of a hat will show up for an impromptu news conference on even the most mundane local issues around the state. He does get around the state. He also lends support to many issues New Yorkers in the state are interested in.

http://www.recordonline.com/article/20150327/NEWS/150329406/101019

[Cha]

8. Mahalo for the reality check, Historic NY

[mmonk]

10. In keeping with a short answer or brevity, Wall Street.

The Democratic Party will go down in history as a party that never learned and eventually faded. The path back to progressivism is going to be a long haul and have to be carried by the people.

[bullwinkle428]

12. Literally one day after Wall Street threatens to pull all funding from Democrats

primarily as the results of Elizabeth Warren's comments, Harry Reid steps down and turns the reins over to Schumer? I'm sure it's all just a huge coincidence.

[Oilwellian]

13. Shumer will be a perfect senator...

for Wall Street. They have to make sure the party's leadership positions are filled with Third Way Wall Street sycophants. Way to go, Democrats!