Do we finally have to face the reality that the Arab Spring was an abject failure?

[Kurska]

I was incredibly hopeful when it started. I genuinely wanted the ideas of secularism and democracy to find root in the middle east. I thought people were finally ready to cast aside all these strongman and embrace a better society. Now it seems that every nation where the tyrant was deposed has spiraled into chaos and strife. Syria is destroyed, Egypt is right back where they started and Libya is in chaos. Tunisia actually looked like the one success story, but now their 3000 ISIS Jihads appear to be returning home and bringing havoc with them.

Just so utterly sad. I now fully expect to see nothing resembling democracy in the middle east in my lifetime.

[romanic]

1. I feel that way too.

Religious extremism, jihadism, political infighting, and a lack of a plan for the future caused all of those revolutions to be pissed away down into the toilet. The Middle East seems to be a lost cause imo, sad to say.

[RandiFan1290]

2. Bush's illegal invasion started this

Nice try

[MADem]

3. Not abject, but there is an historical cultural imperative in that region for the "Strong Leader"

paradigm. We regard it as a "bad thing" -- they don't, so much. They like a Nasser-type guy with a "good moustache"--a gutsy guy who is a smooth talker, who stands up those "PTB" and represents regional pride.

Unfortunately, when leaders try to "liberalize" societies too quickly, there's push-back and tension. They aren't on the same path as other nations--they are still very much into the marriage of religion and law, they don't relate in a secular fashion and in some nations, atheism is a crime.

We have to be careful to not paint our cultural imperatives on their societies. I'd be happy to see progress in women's/children's rights over the near term. Once you get women out there in society, you find that shit starts making more sense. IMO, anyway. The women start doing all the hard work and gradually they manage to infuse their ideas into the mainstream--by the time the bossy old guys realize what's happened, they're dead!

[Roland99]

16. Exactly. It's why Iraq has devolved horribly.

Plus, the general citizenry, while moving ever slowly toward a more liberal viewpoint, is still rooted in a centuries-old patriarchal mindset with a whole lot of religious fundamentalism thrown in for good measure.

[seveneyes]

4. Too late to keep the change

[Enthusiast]

17. Thanks, seveneyes. I'm totally in love with that song.

That song in particular is under-appreciated. The whole LP is completely incredible.

[JI7]

5. the Iraq war was the failure . while there would still be problems

without the war in iraq it's likely that ISIS would never have become as big as it has. each country may have had their own internal issues to deal with .

one thing that came out of all of this is that people may be less likely to accept dictators . sisi will probably not last as long as mubarak .

[delrem]

6. Yes. It was fake to begin with. It helped PNAC along, tho'...

[imthevicar]

13. At least you know this.

everyone else thinks it was home grown.

[eridani]

7. It reminds me of the 1979 Iranian revolution

As in the Arab Spring, all elements of society, secular and religious alike, participated in the overthrow of dictators. Then the religious whackjobs took over because they were more organized than the divided secularists.

[ybbor]

9. Hmm...

Sounds eerily familiar to what is happening right here in the good ol' US of A.

We on the left are not as well organized and narrow minded err objected as those on the right and we have seen how they remain focused on their singular messaging. We on the left seem to want to fix everything at once and get bogged down on the how. They plow through with their simple, focus group tested sound bites and have been getting their people to the polls and doing so at the critical times, ie. 2010 when redistricting took place.

The left, especially the Democratic Party needs to dump what's-her-face from Florida and get a galvanizing leader who can put together a simple, yet strong plan. Oh how I miss Dr. Dean and his successful 50 state strategy.

[eridani]

10. Yes indeed. 2014 ought to be justification for kicking her ass right out. n/t

[Enthusiast]

18. DWS is a complete failure.

[jtuck004]

8. I know. Dropping bombs right and left, and still no damn democracy. Need more bombs. n/t

[pampango]

11. Perhaps in the short run but it is hard to blame people for not wanting to live under a dictator.

We can tell them that they have no choice; that there are too many powerful entrenched interests - local dictators and foreigners interested in their resources - in their region so they cannot succeed. That would not stop you or me if we lived in such a society. I doubt it will stop them. in the long run.

It is certainly true that the conservative forces overthrown do not go away. They fight back. France took many decades to overcome the conservative forces they thought they had rid themselves of in 1789.

Dictators do not encourage the development of civil society - elected legislatures, impartial judiciaries, independent civic organizations, etc. If the country can function well with independent institutions, how necessary is the 'wise and enlightened' dictator? It is in his self-interest that his country be faced with the choice of "the devil you know" - him - or "the devil you don't know" - the chaos that would ensue if he is deposed. Given this choice you can imagine how bad things have to be for people to revolt as in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt and Syria among others.

So when they are overthrown, there is little civil society ready to take his place. The lack of a ready government structure is a recipe for chaos particularly when there are powerful conservative forces ready to counterattack.

[shaayecanaan]

12. If the Tunisians could survive the israeli terrorist attack against them

in 1985, then they can survive this one.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Wooden_Leg

[The2ndWheel]

14. They have to be able to draw their own borders first

The only way that's ever really been done in human history is through violence though. If there was a UN, or some sort of international community when America(or pick a country) was founded and established, there would be no America as we know it.

[Turbineguy]

15. People have to be ready for these things.

[Savannahmann]

19. I won't disagree.

In fact, it's one of the reasons I was one of the few voices speaking out about Assad and basically helping him.

We want to believe that there is a good man, or woman, who will rise to the top and initiate reforms and push the nation into a more secular existence. Turkey had moved away from the strict Islamic interpretations and into a more Secular existence a long time ago. Surely it could happen again, especially with so many Western educated people in the world.

I have long ago come to the conclusion that the Arab Spring was not the effort to throw off the dictator in favor of more democracy. It was the effort of getting rid of one dictator, and installing another one. Tunisia isn't yet a lost cause, but it will be in another year, max.

Libya is a disaster. Egypt will be lurching through counter revolutions for the next two decades. Syria is the last chance to salvage something. And it isn't democracy that can be salvaged, it's stability.

As bad as Assad is, and make no mistake, he's a bad guy. However, as bad as he is, he is what passes as the more rational example of a dictatorial thug. We were never going to overthrow him, Russia would not stand for it. Russia would throw troops and money to keep their naval base, which is the only one in the region. I don't know who told President Obama that there were moderate forces involved who dreamed of a secular nation, but that is only publicity.

So as bad as Assad is, we know this. He isn't going to be left by the Russians, and if we try to depose him, that makes him more in their debt, and more of a puppet to Putin. The answer is help Assad. Yes, he's a brutal dictatorial thug. But he is the devil we know when anyone who is put in charge will be a brutal dictatorial thug. Best case scenario is a group of idiots who are going to throw people off roofs, behead them, burn them alive in a cage, and abuse women in ways not even the most violent porn would dare portray. I know everyone likes to play the game, if I was the President, well in this case, if I was the President I'd send a representative over and ask what we can bomb to help Assad out.

Maybe the guy isn't quite as beholding to the Russians, and maybe we help fend off the wild eyed window licking lunatics who think they are blessed by God to commit atrocities. Worst case scenario, people who already hate us, win, and hate us. Best case scenario, the mouth breathing cretins are driven back to their old jobs as the village idiots.

[blm]

20. Secularism defined Iraq before Bush invaded. Religious vengeances replaced

secularism there and spread throughout the region.

Thank Bush-Cheney.