Contrary to Corporate MSM: Kulanu, "All Of Us" Party, Will Decide The Israeli Election

[Fred Sanders]

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/03/18/1371742/-Contrary-to-corporate-MSM-Israel-s-Kulanu-All-Of-Us-Party-will-decide-the-election

"Here's what happens in Israel if Likud cannot get Kulanu and the left-center parties follow their campaign pledges. As the top single party, Bibi Netanyahu gets 42 days to try to form a government:

Likud = 30
HH = 8
Shas = 7
UTJ = 6
JB = 6
That's 57 seats. Takes 61 to form a government.

"All Of Us" is Kulanu in Hebrew. This party is led by Moshe Kahlon, who began life as a working class fisherman and street vendor. Other founders include experienced politicians from the former Labor Party and Avi Gabai who is an expert at the telecommunications industry.
During the run up to Tuesday's election this party was listed by Haaretz and other outlets as an ally of Likud. That was seen generally by Israelis as a joke. Not a funny joke. The fact of the matter was that the Kulanu team had negotiated with the left-center Yesh Atid to run a joint list.

Here's the minimum the left-center parties have if they get Kulanu:

ZU = 24
Non-participating support from Arabs' Joint List = 14
Yesh Atid = 11
Kulanu = 10
Meretz = 4

That's 63. Last I looked that's more than 61. That's a winner."

[Jim Lane]

1. Thanks for these details!

I thought that some of the posts on DU were too pessimistic -- taking it as a done deal that Netanyahu was back in.

Some published commentaries opined that Kulanu would rather go with ZANU and would have readily done so after a ZANU plurality win or narrow loss. Likud's unexpected strength, however, is thought to create a problem for that approach. Hence, Netanyahu's continuation in office was seen as probable, though not certain.

[LittleBlue]

2. I want Netanyahu as PM

Israel should make their apartheid policy official. No more hiding it. Make the world confront what the truth and not an illusion that peace is possible without sanctions.

If Herzog is PM, we get more of the same. Lip service, appeasement, but no action.

[0rganism]

3. would Kulanu et al even be willing to form a coalition which included Joint List support?

from what i read, it seems like Joint List is a bit of a political pariah, even though they came in 3rd, and Moshe Kahlon is reputed to be strongly pro-settlement.

that would be a serious problem for crafting an anti-BB majority.

[Fred Sanders]

4. Joint List can support Knesset block votes for whatever and whomever....... without joining in government.

As stated in the OP.

[0rganism]

5. good point, thus the "non-participating" specification in the OP

i do wonder if Joint List joining up with ZU in opposing BB would drive other players like Yesh Atid to support BB.

[Fred Sanders]

7. 26 days to go for Bibi to reach 61....without Kulanu they would need to draw a centerleftist party.

No announcement by the President yet of a government....there is still hope, real hope.

[Unvanguard]

10. Even that might be difficult if the government depends on their votes for confidence.

The political and rhetorical gap between the Joint List parties and the center-left Zionist parties is massive, and some of the Joint List parties would be extremely politically risky to ally with.

[Unvanguard]

9. Not a chance. Joint List was never going to end up in government. n/t

[Scurrilous]

6. Thanks!

K & R

[Unvanguard]

8. Netanyahu will have the initial opportunity to form a coalition and he will buy off Kulanu.

Whoever wins a plurality has a big advantage and he has a solid plurality.