Rahm and Chuy Poll Shows a Dead Heat

[mucifer]

A new poll concludes that Mayor Rahm Emanuel is "very likely" even with challenger Jesus "Chuy" Garcia. The poll, conducted by Ogden Fry, shows Emanuel up 43 percent to 38.5 percent, with 18.6 percent undecided. But, the pollster says the race is even closer than that because his data shows that Hispanics have historically been underrepresented in polls.

The poll surveyed around 1,000 likely voters and was conducted on Feb. 25, one day after the initial election, and again on Feb. 28, with the results remaining largely unchanged.

"We are not surprised by the results of the latest poll," said Garcia Campaign Manager Andrew Sharp. "We continue to believe that as the city learns more about Jesus "Chuy" Garcia's agenda for change, his support will continue to grow. We have seen a lot of polls over the last few months and we saw the results of the election last Tuesday. One fact remains constant - a majority of Chicagoans do not want four more years under Mayor Emanuel."

http://chicagotonight.wttw.com/2015/03/01/poll-emanuel-garcia-dead-heat

That's showing the momentum building on the left. All the major newspapers and many minority politicians backed Rahm. Chuy has a good ground game. Rahm is very unpopular. Got my Chuy sign up in the window. Hoping for the best.

[ND-Dem]

1. it would be very pleasant to have rahm gone. when is the election?

[elleng]

3. April 7. eom

[ND-Dem]

4. thanks.

[Renew Deal]

15. Is this a primary or a general election?

A lot of municipalities run elections at off times. If it's a primary, what are the chances for any dem in the General Election?

[betterdemsonly]

18. It is a non partisan runoff

Both two contenders are registered dems but the winner will be Mayor.

[Renew Deal]

29. Wow. So the stakes are large.

[HERVEPA]

27. Are you kidding? Chicago with a Republican mayor??

[Renew Deal]

30. Just looked it up

Chicago hasn't had a republican since 1931.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayor_of_Chicago

[trublu992]

2. I hope this is true and not a plant story to drum up interest in voting

Chicago needs to come out and make a different choice than the usual corruption.

[merrily]

5. Duers anywhere who want to encourage a way other than Third Way can donate.

https://secure.actblue.com/contribute/page/chicagoforchuy

If you don't want to give actblue your info, you can also contact a field office for an alternative.

http://chicagoforchuy.com/field-office-locator

[tencats]

6. “I told him not to do it, because I did not think it was doable”

A little background info on Jesus 'Chuy' Garcia.

What Jesus 'Chuy' Garcia Is Made Of
By Melinda Henneberger @MelindaDC

The man who forced a run-off with Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel is the son of a farm worker and a casualty of the Daley machine. But none of that has stopped him—yet.

Even some of Jesus "Chuy” Garcia’s closest friends initially thought that the 58-year-old Cook County commissioner would have no chance in a last-minute run against Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel. “I told him not to do it,’’ said Matt Piers, who has known Garcia for 35 years, “because I did not think it was doable” for a guy with no cash or connections to take on an incumbent with so much and so many.

One of four challengers, Garcia raised only $1.4 million in the months that followed—compared to the $13.6 million that Emanuel’s campaign took in. Just before the election, the current mayor welcomed his old boss the president back to town, too. At an event officially designating the old Pullman Historic District a national monument, Obama joked about the not-so-sly timing by referring to his longtime dream of becoming the first president to declare a new monument in the sub-freezing temperatures of mid-winter “Chi-beria.” And as long as he was there, he lavished a few compliments on his former chief of staff, calling him “an essential part of my team in the White House during some very hard times for America. I relied on his judgment every day, his smarts every day, his toughness every day.’’

Thanks for the input, replied Chicago, where Emanuel has lost support over mass school closings, a crooked red-light camera traffic ticketing program, and even the December mugging of his 17-year-old son. Couldn’t the mayor keep his own child safe?

“I told him not to do it.’’
Matt Piers, who has known Garcia for 35 years

Still, after Garcia took the 34 percent share of Tuesday’s vote that put him in a one-on-one April runoff with Emanuel, who received 45 percent of the vote, “it was surreal, like a dream come true,’’ said another Garcia ally, Amalia Rioja. “The whole landscape just shifted."

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-02-26/what-jesus-chuy-garcia-is-made-of

[Blue_In_AK]

7. I hope Rahm gets his ass handed to him.

[rpannier]

8. People need to get out and vote for Garcia

[Enthusiast]

9. We should all work together to purge the Democratic Party of the criminal element.

Please. Time is growing short.

[dreamnightwind]

10. So a guy named Jesus Garcia could be mayor of Chicago

when the Grateful Dead plays its farewell shows, in Chicago of all places, over independence day, their only shows under that name since the '95 passing of Jerry Garcia. Make it so!

I would love for Jerry's grateful ghost to be smiling over that circumstance. Though he would be the first to wince at any Jesus comparison, his music was the living spiritual vehicle for millions, including myself.

I would be even more pleased, though, to rid Chicago of the reign or Rahm. Sad that the president still showed up to campaign for Rahm when a more Democratic and grass-roots candidate was the competition, says a lot. Go Jesus.

[lovemydog]

11. K & R for Chuy Garcia.

Vote for him in April! He will stand strongly for workers. Good luck Chicago. You deserve Mr. Garcia.

[Stellar]

12. I've really never heard of Chuy until Karen Lewis (Chicago's Teachers Union President)

put her weight behind him after she became ill with brain cancer and was unable to run. So if Karen is for him that's where I'll continue to place my vote.

So, Emanuel (Rauner) and Garcia were trying to get Willie Wilson, the guy that came in third to support them in the run-off. Wilson said that his vote will definitely go for Garcia but he'll back anyone that his voters tell him to support.

http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2015/03/01/wilson-ill-vote-for-garcia-but-may-endorse-emanuel/


eta: And that's basically what everyone else is saying...'anybody but Rahm'.

[RiverLover]

13. Come on Chicago, lead the progressive way for the country!!

Go grassroots, Power to the People!!

Thanks for posting this mucifer!!

[Renew Deal]

14. 43% with 18% undecided is a bad number for an incumbent.

If they break 50-50 Rahm wins. Garcia needs them to go >2-1 in his favor.

[mucifer]

17. The great thing is that many people didn't know Chuy's name a few months ago

But, they sure knew Rahm's. Politics are so weird here. The major African American opponent in the race who got 10% of the votes states he will vote for Chuy but might endorse rahm. He is a millionaire and is getting lots of pressure from his friend republican governer rauner and I'm sure many other monied interests to endorse rahm. However, I doubt the people who voted for him will vote for rahm. He spent his whole campaign bashing rahm, not Chuy.

[HereSince1628]

19. Garcia, and through him, the Dem Left have already won an important victory

Rahm is still likely to win the run-off, but Third Way confidence was exposed as over-confidence.

Run-off, are we talking run-off???? Who expected a runoff????

For the huge celebrity, monster money man, that is pragmatically speaking, an embarrassment, verging on what Rahm usually terms "***arded"

[Renew Deal]

20. Moral victories are still losses.

Last edited Mon Mar 2, 2015, 11:27 AM - Edit history (1)

Just look at what happened with the Nader voters in 2000. They really showed the Democratic Party what's up. 8 years of Bush and the wars and economic struggle to go with it.

[HereSince1628]

23. Wrong because the loss, if it happens, fully demonstrated authentic POSSIBILITY

It's akin to how coming in second in a major sporting championship demonstrates competitiveness.

I know that Rahm and his acolytes believe winning is everything. And it seems to be, except when it does not.

[Renew Deal]

25. Do you think Argentina was happy to finish second in the world cup?

Winning in some areas is everything and politics is one of those areas. Garcia can't accomplish anything if he loses.

[HereSince1628]

32. Do you think voting for a winner who doesn't serve the voting base creates happiness?

Talking about variations of victory wouldn't that one be called a Pyrrhic victory ?

I think you're refusing to see the obvious.

The third-way has authentic competition inside the party, it isn't the hegemony myth of it suggests.

[Renew Deal]

35. I see the "authentic competition" and advancing the cause as separate issues.

Have all the primaries you want. But in the end it is important to get Democrats elected over republicans. I bet Democrats wish they could have all of those "yellow dogs" back in congress. While they were there Obama got a lot done in his first two years. And what happened with Gore in 2000 is a disgrace. Nader voters accomplished the exact opposite of what they wanted. Bush got to be president and we know how that turned out.

Of course none of this matters to the Chicago election since both candidates are dems. But saying that forcing a runoff and losing is an "important victory" is wrong. You're losing happy.

[betterdemsonly]

24. A dem that doesn't push our ideas when elected in not a victory either. n/t

[Renew Deal]

28. It's a bigger victory than allowing a Republican to take over.

Ask yourself this. Do you think we would have been better off with Gore or Bush in 2000?

[alcibiades_mystery]

33. There is no Republican in this race - other than Rahm's policies, which are Republican

He hates unions, loves privatization, cuts social safety net programs for the poor while giving huge tax incentives to businesses under the guise of job creation. He hangs out with Rauner and other millionaire/billionaires because supply side something something.

You're quite right that winning is the only thing here. But the contest is between two Democrats: one who supports what have traditionally been Democratic Party ideas and policies, and one who supports Republican ideas and policies.

[betterdemsonly]

21. They outspent Chuy 12 to 1 and had 90% of the Radio and Tv ads

Chuy still got em. They weren't overconfident. They just weren't all that popular.

[mucifer]

22. In Chicago we can register to vote up to the election

Voter turn out was very low. So if our side can register more people to vote, that is a factor, too. That's another bad sign for rahm.

[Renew Deal]

31. The numbers are bad for him.

43 is just too low. It shows a big sign of trouble.

[alcibiades_mystery]

34. Voter turnout was super low, but it was low especially in Rahm wards

Will the young white professionals in the 42nd and 43rd wards come out in droves for Rahm? If they do, then he'll cruise. If they don't, he's in trouble.

[betterdemsonly]

16. Just donated $50 dollars giving actblue a $5 tip

Will do the same before the april finally.

[Jackpine Radical]

26. I'm puttin' my money on Chewy.