Poll shows...Senator Elizabeth Warren is competitive with Jeb Bush

[Cosmic Kitten]

The latest PPP poll has good news for Senator Warren.
In a match up against Jeb Bush, Senator Warren is
within 2% points, well within the margin of error!

From page 7, of February, 25, 2015 report

Elizabeth Warren..........41%
Jeb Bush.....................43%
Not sure..................... 17%
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_National_22515.pdf

With 17% undecided and the fact that
Elizabeth isn't even running (yet)
it's CLEAR she could beat the Republican frontrunner!

Go Senator Warren

[FSogol]

1. LOL, This again?

If you like Warren, why not promote her instead of cherry picking stats to pretend that HRC isn't the dominate front runner?

[Scuba]

5. Hillary may be the front runner, but that doesn't mean she would be good for the country.

We don't want to lose by winning with a severely flawed candidate, especially when so many far better candidates are available.

[FSogol]

8. Then spend time promoting Democratic candidates that will do better iyo and

let's stop bashing all other Democratic candidates.

[Scootaloo]

6. I didn't see anything about clinton in the OP

[FSogol]

7. Did you miss yesterday's PPP analysis meltdown? n/t

[Scootaloo]

10. Very probably, I did

But I'm still not seeing anything about Clinton in the OP.

[Cosmic Kitten]

21. You do seem to be stalking me?

Perhaps you have a personal issue with me?

[FSogol]

23. Disagreeing does not equal stalking.

[MineralMan]

29. Replying in a GD thread does not constitute stalking.

It's a public forum, and many DUers read it thoroughly and participate in threads. Accusations of stalking are pretty much personal attacks, I think. Probably not a good idea, really.

[Cosmic Kitten]

40. Well that poster has not adressed the OP, only me directly

In a public forum where members are supposed to address ISSUES,
not individuals, it is harassment to make comments about the individual
absent any relevant comment on the topic.

But thanks for the "concern".

SO what do you have to say about the OP, MM?

[Agschmid]

43. Then by all means alert...

And no you are not being stalked by anyone.

[MineralMan]

50. There is no requirement that anyone must address only

the OP. None.

I have nothing to say about the OP. At this stage of the process, such polls are essentially worthless in determining what will or will not happen. Ask me about polls in 2016. I'm not interested much in them right now with regard to any undeclared candidate, especially since Elizabeth Warren has apparently ruled out a run on her part.

I am, however, very interested in DU discussions, and read very many of them each day. I reply to posts in them as I think appropriate. I will continue to do so.

[Cosmic Kitten]

11. +1

Seems someone is defensive about an unnamed frontrunner

People should speak to the OP or just ignore the thread.

[Scootaloo]

14. I've noticed there seems to be a palovian response to the names "Warren" and "Sanders"

Seems similar to the responses I saw to the name "Obama" back in 2008. I would suspect it's the same people, except that crowd ended up going totally Lord of the Flies, signed on with the McCain campaign and - if legends be true - completely vanished after the general election, one and all.

WoooooOOOooooOOoOOOOooo, it's the ghoooOOoOoOOoosts of elections paaaaAAAAAaaaaAst!

[Fumesucker]

17. <snort>

[JustAnotherGen]

28. I'm not for any of the 'DU Leading candidates'

So I thank you - it's just information. I'm leading towards anyone but those three as they appear to be so divisive(Clinton, Warren, Sanders) -

But I welcome the robust and passionate pleas for these Candidates by their early supporters.

[Cosmic Kitten]

9. Welcome back. Care to speak to the poll numbers?

Or is your "job" to stalk me?
Are you stalking me?

[FSogol]

12. Disagreeing does not equal stalking.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

30. To be fair she didn't mention Clinton and is only mentioning Warren.

I do doubt the efficacy of touting a poll that shows losing to Bush is a good thing when Hillary is beating him by ten points in the same poll...

[FSogol]

31. This is just today's continuation of yesterday's nonsense.

SSDD.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

34. She didn't mention Clinton

It's silly tho because the same poll shows HRC waxing Jeb.

[Cosmic Kitten]

41. Statistically, Warren is in a dead heat with Jeb

So a 2% difference with a +/- of over 3% Moe
Is a dead heat!

Not bad for someone who isn't even "running"

[DemocratSinceBirth]

42. Can you link me to Hillary Clinton's announcement she's running for president?

[Cosmic Kitten]

44. Different thread this OP is about Elizabeth Warren

[DemocratSinceBirth]

46. It's in the poll you cited.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

56. Huh...I don't think this is a private board./NT

[karynnj]

61. That was true of some other posts - but not this one

You could add how Hillary Clinton did in the same poll against Bush - winning easily. You could also add that she is preferred by a huge majority of Democrats as the nominee.

However, this is a reasonable post and fair -- as it addresses something that has been asked, but not answered before. How would any Clinton alternative (in this case Warren) do against Bush. It would also be good to see how she (or someone else or even generic Democrat) stack up against the top Republicans. To my knowledge, this is the first time the general election has been polled for any Democrat other than Clinton.

This is important to know even though there is very near certainty that Clinton will run and win the nomination -- and at this point - easily beat all Republicans.

I am not sure what your real objection is here - other than that it is a carryover from other posts that really did distort the results - even when accurate (ie the comparison of unfavorables.)

Showing that - at this point - Warren and Bush would be a close race is not that strong an argument to support her over Clinton, who wins very easily. What it might show is that if for whatever reasons Clinton can not run, we have alternatives.

[Logical]

69. I agree she is the front runner, just like in 2008! LOL! nt

[FSogol]

70. That's true, but being a frontrunner at any given point in time does not mean she will be the front

runner all the time. In 2008 she was beaten by an exceptional candidate who captured the imagination of the country and increased the number of voters. So far, for this upcoming election, no one fitting those qualities has stepped up, hence her current front runner status. She also improved on her 2008 credentials by serving as SOS.

[JustAnotherGen]

2. Good link . . . Same question with other candidate(s)

Q15 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb
Bush, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 50%
Jeb Bush......................................................... 40%
Not sure .......................................................... 11%

This is a semi good cross section. The AA group was was well represented at around the correct population - but I'm not sure about Hispanic.

The pollsters need to start reaching into the hispanic community more since they are the future of America. IF they are allowed to vote in the next election - it's going to be very interesting.

Q30 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2. If
African American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic .......................................................... 10%
White .............................................................. 73%
African American............................................. 12%
Other............................................................... 5%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

32. We will juice the Latino vote to more than 10%

For two reasons.

!) The Republicants don't like them and they know it.
2) The Latino population is growing exponentially.

[JustAnotherGen]

35. I hope so!

And we need to get a feel on where they stand so the candidate can begin to craft their message. Leaving them out of the polling is not a good idea.

They need to be represented at 17%.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_Hispanic_and_Latino_population

[Scootaloo]

3. Getting run up on by someone who isn't even running

Damn, that's going to leave a mark.

[TheCowsCameHome]

4. Is that supposed to be good news?

Running behind to a dolt like Jeb doesn't exactly inspire me.

[Cosmic Kitten]

13. It is GREAT news

Disparaging remakes about Jeb aside...
The Bush political machine is a PROVEN WINNER.

Misunderestimating Team Bush would be a spectacular mistake.

Wait, you do know who the Bush people are, right?
And you still think shrugging off Jeb is a good strategy?

[TheCowsCameHome]

58. Meanwhile, CPAC (his own party nut-elites) is hiding from Jeb

like a he is a drunken Jehovah's Witness ringing the doorbell with a fistful of pamphlets...........

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. This board went from being a parody of itself to a caricature.

Five years from now we will be asking ourselves when did DU jump the shark?

[Scootaloo]

16. "when did DU jump the shark?" - It never made it, sadly

Which is why instead of making great strides, we just hobble around in a circle with our right leg and left stump.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. It's the nature of the net...

"Battle not with monsters, lest ye become a monster" or "Battle not with idiots, lest ye become an idiot."

[Scootaloo]

20. Know what would make it easier?

If everyone had a little thing on their profile, that said, "Hi! when I post on DU / Discussionist, my name is __________!"

100% certain that would wash out some of the driftwood on our shores.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. It does seem that anonymity promotes the most aberrant behavior.

What did trolls do before the advent of the internet?

I often thought think about that.

[Scootaloo]

33. Wrote for WSJ

[Cosmic Kitten]

22. The irony, it burns arrrgggghhhh

[NCTraveler]

19. Our party is in a great position to hold the White House for 16 years straight.

Damn near two fucking decades if we/they play our cards right. Incremental change turns into real change over a time period like that.

[Cosmic Kitten]

24. It is a battle of attrition

The party needs to gain and hold ground.

President Warren would be taking a lot of ground
from the opposition.

[NCTraveler]

25. Yep. Gain and hold ground.

We need to work hard on gaining in congress. We are currently in great shape for the White House. Warren and Clinton are in really good positions. Either would take a lot of ground from the opposition. Either way it will be a great step for the US.

[Cosmic Kitten]

27. State legislatures and Governorships is also key

Actually, the party needs to improve across the board

[NCTraveler]

38. True. We have some serious party problems in Florida.

We were in a pretty good position to take the governorship in Florida as Scott is not liked very much. The party and Morgan really forced Crist on us and he is one of the few people who is disliked as much as Scott. Floridians feel both are untrustworthy. I truly think other candidates could have done much better. Crist and Morgan tied themselves to one an other during the election and the years running up to the election thinking it would help. It didn't have the effect they thought it would. Both are now viewed as scammers. The party here needs help as we had candidates that would have done so much better. On the bright side the state is slowly going in the right direction and turning blue.

[Cosmic Kitten]

49. Florida does have issues!

I worked for Columbia Healthcare when Rick Scott was the CEO.
The Feds were all in and out of there doing their investigation...
I was dumbstruck when he was elected Governor!
Particularly when his Corporation was found guilty of
fraud against the Federal Government!

[SidDithers]

36. But only 29% of BASE see Warren as FAVORABLE!...nt

Sid

[Cosmic Kitten]

47. Yep, and 40% are "not sure"

With 40% "not sure" she could easily
become a dominant candidate.

If she had 40%+ unfavorable it would look bleak
Any "brand" approaching 50% unfavorable is a losing cause.

Thank goodness, Elizabeth is seen favorably or in a neutral light
She has plenty of room to go up in the polls!

[JI7]

39. BENGHAZI

[brooklynite]

45. So, given the choice...

If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb
Bush, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton............ 50%
Jeb Bush................... 40%
Not sure .................. 11%

If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Elizabeth Warren and Republican Jeb
Bush, who would you vote for?
Elizabeth Warren..........41%
Jeb Bush.....................43%
Not sure..................... 17%

...and given the fact that one of the two WANTS TO RUN and the other DOESN'T WANT TO RUN, I'm going to go with the candidate who want to run and has a significant lead.

[Cosmic Kitten]

48. That's the beauty of a DEMOCRATIC system

Vote your conscience!

Don't let anyone tell you you can't vote your conscience
or let them bully you into voting against your self-interests!

[still_one]

51. How can she be competitive if she isn't running?

[Cosmic Kitten]

54. Did you read the OP?

[still_one]

55. yup, just emphasizing the point made

[Cosmic Kitten]

57. Got it!

What is MOST IMPRESSIVE is that
she has not done ANY campaigning,
is relatively unknown, and yet is running
head to head with the Bush dynasty!

Just imagine what she could do if she does run!

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

52. So wait, do we like or not like PPP now?

I'm getting whiplash.

[Cosmic Kitten]

53. That is the question WE all need to ask.

I'm agnostic on polling.
But polling does serve a purpose.

I am all in for Elizabeth, and/or Bernie.
Or any Democratic candidate that speaks for the "base"
We need representatives that speak for
the majority of workaday citizens.

[OilemFirchen]

68. Reallty?

How many threads on this particular poll has your agnosticism compelled you to start?

[AtomicKitten]

59. Not sure how to correlate two different polls,

but a Quinnipiac poll has Hillary neck-to-neck with JEB in Florida, 44-43.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2130

[DemocratSinceBirth]

62. One is a group of state polls. The other is a national poll.

The poll the seminal poster started is a national one and in that poll Secretary Of State Clinton leads Governor John Ellis Bush 50% -40%.

Cherry picking polls isn't productive any way. It's best to look at all of them, ergo;

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_christie_vs_clinton-3766.html


BTW, HuffPo also groups polls but I will let others link that

#commitedtotruthiness


P.S. It's fairy remarkable in the polls you cited Hillary is leading the "smart" Bush in Florida as he left office with an approval rating in the 60s.

[AtomicKitten]

63. Again, Quinnipiac has Hillary tied with Bush in Florida.

Their study of three swing states:

FLORIDA: Clinton 44 - Bush 43
OHIO: Clinton 47 - Bush 36
PENNSYLVANIA: Clinton 50 - Christie 39

The link again: http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2130

You've laced your post with snotty insinuations; I've simply posted available polling.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

64. "You've laced your post with snotty insinuations; I've simply posted available polling."

"When in Rome do like the Romans." But if my remarks offended you I apologize though they are tame by the rules of this board. I have been spoken to a lot, lot, lot...lot worse. DU has never been a bastion of civility.


44-43 is not a tie. It would be more accurate to say Secretary of State Clinton has a lead, albeit a very small one, and within the margin of error.

Again, the fact that Hillary Clinton is beating Jeb Bush in his home state, where he served as governor twice and is still hugely popular, is significant.

[AtomicKitten]

66. Technically it's called a "virtual tie" because it is within the MOE.

And sorry to burst your bubble, but she clearly is not beating Bush in Florida. You can parse that til the cows come home, but the numbers are still the numbers.

I don't get why some here get their knickers in a twist over polling this far out. It's virtually meaningless and reflects in large part name recognition, in this case the well-known entities of Bush and Clinton.

Nobody has even declared their candidacy, yet some of you are ready for a coronation. Calm the fuck down. Seriously.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

67. I will stipulate that it's a tie to advance the discussion.

The fact that HIllary Clinton is running neck and neck with Jeb Bush in Florida where he left the governorship with an approval rating in the 60s is nothing less than impressive.

[workinclasszero]

60. Too bad she isn't running

How many times does Sen Warren have to say that she isn't running?

Oh and she backs Hillary Clinton for prez as well.

[DCBob]

65. ..

[LynneSin]

71. Not to be disrespectful to Sen Warren but I think roadkill could be competitive against Jeb Bush

In reality it isn't Warren's name that is the big appeal, it's the Bush name that has a HUGE distaste.

George W. Bush left this country in tatters and nobody wants to go back to that again. Jeb says we shouldn't look into the past to judge him. Ok then what should we judge him on because his record in Florida? Deciding he could play God with a woman's life? Jeb is a part of the Bush family, he carries that load when he runs.

And what's worse, there are right-wing teabaggers that will not vote for him thinking that Jeb Bush is too moderate.

I'm not saying that Warren shouldn't run or wouldn't be competitive. I'm saying this poll tells me absolutely nothing about how Elizabeth Warren would do in a general election.