That big sucking noise you hear... Let me be the first to tell you it's not a Dyson.

[Agschmid]

Unfortunately it's the Democratic Party and the power vacuum we are encountering as we wait for a 2016 nominee. it is 2015, and it is a full 624 days until the 2016 Presidential Election. Sure that seems like a whole lot of time, a lot of things can happen in 624 days including:

- A women can have 2.22 babies (rounding is not my thing).
- Apple can release 2 full updates to the iPod Touch (292 Avg. days)
- A cat can have 12 litters of kittens (keeping busy clearly)

Unfortunately one things that seems to be not happening in that vast amount of time, no real credible challengers have announced their candidacy for the Democratic Nomination for President. Sure we've got a short list that the pundits have on constant rotation... That list consists of a wide variety of candidates from different political backgrounds which is a good thing. But there is one thing they all have in common... very few are actually running. Here's the breakdown right now...

Formally Announced - (Exploring a Candidacy):
- Jim Webb U.S. Senator from Virginia 2007–2013; U.S. Secretary of the Navy 1987–1988; formed an exploratory committee
- Martin O'Malley Governor of Maryland 2007–2015; Mayor of Baltimore 1999–2007; formed a political action committee (PAC)

Publicly Expressed Interest - NO ANNOUNCEMENT
- Joe Biden, Vice President of the United States since 2009; U.S. Senator from Delaware 1973–2009; presidential candidate in 1988 and 2008
- Hillary Rodham Clinton, U.S. Secretary of State 2009–2013; U.S. Senator from New York 2001–2009; presidential candidate in 2008
- Bernie Sanders, Independent U.S. Senator from Vermont since 2007; Independent U.S. Representative from Vermont 1991–2007
- Paul Strauss, Shadow Senator from the District of Columbia since 1997

No Expressed Interest - NO ANNOUNCEMENT Keeping it short so less info here...
- John Kerry
- Elizabeth Warren
- Amy Klobuchar
- Claire McCaskill
- Brian Schweitzer
- Andrew Cuomo
- Mark Warner

Now the problem is that those 624 days until the 2016 election are actually pretty limiting when it comes to politics. It's reasonable to think that this could be the most expensive president election ever (good or bad), that means any candidate on either side needs more time to fundraise, and by delaying an announcement they are damaging their earning potential. And the 624 day number is also a bit deceiving as any Democratic challenger in the primary would need to be in the race well before the January 18th 2016 date of the Iowa primary...

If we take a look at two pretty telling charts we get some interesting information the first is a rolling graph of primary polls for the democratic primary (notice the lead candidate is from our "No Announcement" category)...



The second chart shows us what a competitive primary looks like, quite the difference here in the rolling graph of republican primary polls...



Clearly people aren't afraid to "Rage against the machine of Jeb Bush/Mitt Romney" on the other side... so what's holding people back from announcing as a democratic contender?

I'm not a "hair on fire" kind of person but until one of these big names announces we've got a problem. Challengers are not entering the race due to the strong polling by a potential candidate (someone who hasn't even announced yet!)... and no it's not the Oligarchs holding them back from entering the race. Anyone can enter the race at any time. However the earlier a contender announces the more time they have to connect with their potential voters and to fundraise for the election.

Now I always have to add my disclaimers (Uncontested primaries suck. / I am not in anyone's camp at this time. / I hate lies and misrepresentations. / I will vote for the democratic nominee.) since this post is about the primaries but I think it's pretty interesting that people like Warren and Sanders are essentially sitting by on the sidelines.

If they are going to get in this, what are they waiting for?

[msongs]

1. well if you are 35 and a natural born citizen, you can announce right now!

No Person except a natural born Citizen, or a Citizen of the United States, at the time of the Adoption of this Constitution, shall be eligible to the Office of President; neither shall any person be eligible to that Office who shall not have attained to the Age of thirty five Years, and been fourteen Years a Resident within the United States.

[Agschmid]

4. Not old enough on my end...

[Hekate]

2. Good post, Agschmid. I especially endorse your last paragraph/disclaimer. I'm getting worried....

...though, that nobody else besides Hillary is showing up for the prom. This is so not good -- ironically, it's not good for her either, because she needs to show the entire nation the stuff she is made of by being vigorously challenged. And I know she knows this herself.

Where the hell is everybody else? All the bitching at DU about HRC being "the chosen one" does absolutely nothing to answer that question.

[Agschmid]

3. Yes, one certainly needs a date to the prom!

[NYC_SKP]

5. That top graph is fucked up. And I mean really really psycho messed up.

No party in their right mind would propel a person so soon that way.

I think it's mostly a creation of a media complicit in the desire to NOT have a progressive in there.

They want their person.

[Agschmid]

15. But the media loves a good battle, and with a "coronation" they don't get that...

So I don't see how they would gain from this?

[mopinko]

17. no they dont.

the media like to see the person that THEY want crowned without a fight.
keeps people from asking pesky questions.

[Agschmid]

18. No the media likes ratings, and they don't get that without a fight in the primaries...

You can't have it both ways.

And the only pesky question I am asking is who the heck is going to run?

[mopinko]

19. i think bernie has made it clear.

he intends to run if hill is unopposed.

but again, i think you are mistaken about media intentions. they dont care half as much about money as they do about fixing the race. which usually includes making sure dems nominate a good punching bag.

[Agschmid]

20. Well she isn't unapposed, Webb and O'Malley are in... Hillary isn't yet.

So does that mean he wont't be running? And if he doesn't run is it essentially a sign off on the status quo?

[MattSh]

6. It's the whole process that's a problem.

Starting to run 20, 22, 24 months before the election? Most countries can run their important elections, start to finish, in 60 days.

Just another example of American exceptionalism, I guess. Exceptionally stupid, if you ask me.

[Lars39]

9. Yes! Democrats don't have to fill a clown car

and shouldn't let themselves be hustled into starting to run so early. 18+ months is ridiculous and makes people sick of the process.

[greyl]

7. Al Franken could enter the race on a neon toboggan with one week to go,

and handily destroy any one of the jackass Republican offerings.

Relax.

[JDPriestly]

8. So true!

He wouldn't be bad at all.

I would prefer Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders. But Al Franken would be good too.

I can't vote for someone who does not run.

I think Bernie will run.

[Agschmid]

24. Last night at Emily's list he pretty much endorsed HRC.

[TreasonousBastard]

10. There are two fundamental problems with this....

First is name recognition. Ask the average American, or Democrat, "Who is Jim Webb" and they might think it's a late-night talk show host or first baseman for the Mets. And who the fuck is Brian Schweitzer? Our people, choose your own reason, just don't make it into the news.

Of course Hillary is going to lead the polls-- she's the only one anyone knows anything about.

The second problem is that the first ones out of the gate get all the attention and the attacks. If Corey Booker announced tomorrow the Republicans would immediately get snide about Obama II and the other Democratic camps would make snide remarks about Newark. I give it two weeks at most until he drops out.

Every one on those lists is, as we speak, making mad phone calls lining up support and money to have half a chance to survive the opening onslaughts before primary season. They won't announce until they have what they hope is a reasonable coalition of support for survival.

[joshcryer]

11. Keep in mind the primaries start in less than a year.

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/p/2016-presidential-primary-calendar.html

So the vacuum is actually a lot scarier than it sounds. It's obvious that Hillary Clinton is holding off as long as possible to announce.

[Agschmid]

14. Yup.

[Romeo.lima333]

12. If they are going to get in this, what are they waiting for? they are waiting to see if hillary runs

is my guess perhaps they think that it's better to win the w.h. with hillary than lose it with sanders or warren

[bemildred]

13. It's safer if they stay in the herd. Call it herd immunity. nt

[HereSince1628]

16. I think there are a handful of things holding people back...

Chief among them is direct competition with a 1) philosophically rather similar candidate who 2) is better positioned re name recognition/celebrity and donor promises, 2.5) in other words the top of the party has become rather monolithic in it's interests.

For the 'old guard' dems, this wouldn't matter perhaps as it's their 'last chance to grab a brass ring' but 3) it -is- going to be tough to win. 2016 would be the 3rd term for the dems to hold consecutively. That's not been done by democrats since FDR. It's something Americans don't do very often. Last time it happened a Bush beat a Massachusetts liberal, mostly over death penalty and tough on crimes issues... no it WASN'T because he was Greek, and/or looked like Snoopy riding in that tank.

on edit: Americans hate losers what young politician wants to risk being so tainted going into the future?

4) The Military-Security complex is ginning up a cold war complete with a couple proxy wars, and those are likely to be raging by 2017. People interested in and capable of leading national movement on domestic issues are likely disinterested in being the person to deal with those. And (on edit) there are some serious trade deals being cut that will handicap dealing with domestic issues after 2016.

5) The oligarchs get their way, it's discouraging for people seeking change. A person inclined to oppose the oligarchs is unlikely to be well supported as a candidate and is going to be largely paralyzed to get anything done once elected. We get candidates who can live under that constraint.

[Fumesucker]

21. I think that's a fair analysis, thanks for posting

[Bluenorthwest]

22. The premise that there is a delay or 'waiting' is not really valid. If you look at the date of

announcement by the eventual winner of the nominations in both Parties in the last 3 non Incumbent Presidential election cycles, the average date of announcement this year would be June 1st. 526 days before the election. Obama announced fairly early at 633 days out. Which was a week ago. It was noted at the time that it was pretty early to get started, because it was. McCain 559 days out.
So this sense that they should have all announced is not really grounded in reality. Bush 514 days out, Gore 501. HW Bush, 392 days out, Dukakis 559 days out.
This is 624.

[Agschmid]

23. Good points.

We've had two candidates announce already the rest of the field is just waiting "it" out, for now at least.