Study: Mass incarceration is not the reason the crime rate has dropped

[davidn3600]

According to a new report from the Brennan Center for Justice, it is still hard to pinpoint the most substantial cause of crime reduction in the last two decades. Based on researchers’ findings, however, we do know what wasn’t responsible: mass incarceration.

Over a 23-year period, 1990-2013, the country’s overall crime rate plummeted, but incarceration accounted for less than 10 percent of the drop. Between 1990-1999, violent crimes such as murder, forcible rape, aggravated assault, and non-negligent manslaughter dropped 28 percent, as the incarceration rate skyrocketed by 60 percent. In the subsequent 13 years, violent crime dropped another 27 percent, but the incarceration rate rose by a mere 1 percent. When compared to 11 other factors like income growth, more policing, and less alcohol consumption, incarceration only impacted 7 percent of the lower crime rate in the 1990s. That tiny percentage dropped down to one during the later years examined by the report.

When researchers narrowed in on states with the largest prison populations, they also found that incarceration had a minimal effect on reduced criminal activity. For instance, the number of California’s inmates jumped 24,569 in 1980 to 132,523 in 1997, although a higher incarceration rate had almost no impression on the state’s crime rate. By 2013, there were 122,800 prisoners in California, and the incarceration had zero effect on crime.

On the flip side, Michigan, Nevada, Connecticut, Delaware, Massachusetts, and the Carolinas reduced their prison populations by 2-15 percent, as their crime rates fell 15 percent.

Due to these findings, Brennan concluded that the use of the prison system has simply plateaued. “Incarceration in the U.S. has reached a level where it no longer provides a meaningful crime reduction benefit.” In other words, more incarceration does not guarantee less crime, so the onus of criminal justice reform should explore alternative methods to a counterproductive system of imprisonment.

http://thinkprogress.org/justice/2015/02/12/3622023/incarceration-doesnt-work-as-much-as-you-think-it-does/

[ananda]

1. So.. the article is essentially saying that there is no correlation..

.. between incarceration numbers and lower crime numbers.

Okaaayyy.

So, why doesn't the article explore the actual reason or reasons
for the lower crime rates?

What exactly ARE these reasons?

[Comrade Grumpy]

3. It mentions 11 other factors:

"When compared to 11 other factors like income growth, more policing, and less alcohol consumption, incarceration only impacted 7 percent of the lower crime rate in the 1990s. That tiny percentage dropped down to one during the later years examined by the report."

This only mentions income growth, more policing, and drinking rates.

I would hypothesize that the rise of surveillance technologies has something to do with it, too.

[hunter]

2. There's a lot of speculation that it was getting the lead out of gasoline and paint.

That's a frightening thing to think about -- that the crime rate is influenced by environmental toxins.

There's also evidence that, like lead, insecticides damage children's brains too.