Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

RiverLover

(7,830 posts)
Sun Feb 8, 2015, 07:17 AM Feb 2015

Enormous, Humongous Trade Deficits Widen, Further Exposing Failed Policy

Enormous, Humongous Trade Deficits Widen, Further Exposing Failed Policy
2/7/2015

In December the trade deficit in goods and services made its largest percentage jump in more than five years and the 2014 yearly total is its highest since 2012 - which begs the question: Why is the Obama administration doubling down on the failed trade policies of its predecessors?

The U.S. has run massive trade deficits for decades since the Wall Street-driven "free trade" ideology came to dominate. "Free trade" de-industrialization has cost our country millions of jobs, tens of thousands of factories and entire industries. It has pushed down wages and greatly increased inequality. Now the Obama administration is doubling down, pushing a vast "NAFTA-style" trade agreement and asking Congress to pass a rigged "fast track" process to pre-approve it.

...The Economic Policy Institute's Robert Scott pointed out that "The U.S. trade deficit in manufactured products increased to $524.2 billion in 2014, an increase of $76.8 billion (17.2 percent) from 2013. ... Growing trade deficits in manufactured products have been a primary driver in the displacement of U.S. manufacturing jobs since 2000."

The 2014 trade deficit with China increased by $23.9 billion to $342.6 billion. Exports to China were up $2.3 billion to $124.0 billion while imports from China increased $26.2 billion to $466.7 billion. Again, exports increased but imports increased more, resulting in job loss and a drain on our economy.

Korea and NAFTA

Since the Korea Free Trade Agreement, our trade deficit with Korea has surged more than 80 percent, which equates to the loss of more than 70,000 U.S. jobs. The U.S. goods trade deficit with Korea increased 20 percent in 2014 to more than $25 billion. 2014 exports to Korea were lower than 2011 -- which was before entering into the KORUS Korea FTA....

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dave-johnson/enormous-humongous-trade_b_6636514.html



Meanwhile, why is John Kerry saying TPP will create over 650K US jobs, a number pulled out of a hat???

http://www.latimes.com/business/hiltzik/la-fi-hiltzik-20150206-column.html#page=1

On the other side of the argument is the trade pact's potential to foster economic growth and job creation — "650,000 jobs in the U.S. alone," as Secretary of State John F. Kerry asserted last month. But that widely challenged figure is extrapolated from a 2012 report by the Peterson Institute of International Economics, which didn't offer a jobs estimate. In fact, the report said the TPP might dislocate workers and drive older people out of the workforce and that any benefits might be canceled out by the resulting costs to workers and society. Evidence from earlier trade pacts, including the North American Free Trade Agreement, suggests that the benefits for developing countries among the treaty signatories are similarly oversold.
36 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Enormous, Humongous Trade Deficits Widen, Further Exposing Failed Policy (Original Post) RiverLover Feb 2015 OP
A huge chunk of our trade deficit is because other countries are doing so poorly with THEIR economy kelliekat44 Feb 2015 #1
^^^I thought only conservative think tanks came up with this line. RiverLover Feb 2015 #3
Well, maybe your thinking is wrong? Sometimes real economics plays a role. nt kelliekat44 Feb 2015 #4
You're saying what the CATO instit is spouting. Its BS RiverLover Feb 2015 #5
+1 nationalize the fed Feb 2015 #7
Bravo!! Kilgore Feb 2015 #19
The bigger lie is that this is something new. DCBob Feb 2015 #21
PLUS ONE, a huge bunch! Enthusiast Feb 2015 #15
Did you read the OP in your first link? ... 1StrongBlackMan Feb 2015 #20
Read below. Its currency manipulation. RiverLover Feb 2015 #22
PLUS ONE, a huge bunch! Enthusiast Feb 2015 #16
Krugman: Stronger dollar has increased the trade deficit pampango Feb 2015 #6
This makes me think of The Nation's article in 2013 RiverLover Feb 2015 #8
It is not illogical for a stronger dollar to make exports more expensive and imports cheaper. pampango Feb 2015 #17
Read the OP article. Currency manipulation plays a role & we don't try to stop it. RiverLover Feb 2015 #18
Well ... nevermind. Okay. n/t 1StrongBlackMan Feb 2015 #25
LOL thanks for reading. nt RiverLover Feb 2015 #26
Because it is not about free trade, it is about global corporatism. djean111 Feb 2015 #2
And why don't Hillary supporters see there will be more of the same if she is elected? benz380 Feb 2015 #9
I don't know. It is weird. So personality based. So win whatever the consequences based. djean111 Feb 2015 #10
Excellent post. RiverLover Feb 2015 #11
Republicans can make Hillary look very, very bad regarding the Bosnia gaffe. stillwaiting Feb 2015 #14
And its more than a gaffe -- she repeated it more than once progree Feb 2015 #23
+1 You nailed it. Enthusiast Feb 2015 #13
+100000 Not failed policy at all woo me with science Feb 2015 #24
Maybe it goes beyond global corporatism aspirant Feb 2015 #30
K&R! This post deserves hundreds of recommendations! Enthusiast Feb 2015 #12
We were all voting for the John Kerry of the VVAW and Iran-Contra. Jackpine Radical Feb 2015 #27
Thanks. I had much admiration for his stand on the Vietnam War. nt Enthusiast Feb 2015 #28
Well it would look silly if he pulled a rabbit out of his hat. Trix and all that stuff Autumn Feb 2015 #29
Costly trade agreements cost jobs. grahamhgreen Feb 2015 #31
kick woo me with science Feb 2015 #32
Better Believe It!...nt SidDithers Feb 2015 #33
kick woo me with science Feb 2015 #34
Was in a sad, formerly lovely small Ohio town today. RiverLover Feb 2015 #35
+100000000 woo me with science Feb 2015 #36
 

kelliekat44

(7,759 posts)
1. A huge chunk of our trade deficit is because other countries are doing so poorly with THEIR economy
Sun Feb 8, 2015, 07:19 AM
Feb 2015

while we are doing better. Thus, success is equated with "failure?"

nationalize the fed

(2,169 posts)
7. +1
Sun Feb 8, 2015, 07:59 AM
Feb 2015
The Big Lie: 5.6% Unemployment
February 3, 2015 Gallup.com

Here's something that many Americans -- including some of the smartest and most educated among us -- don't know: The official unemployment rate, as reported by the U.S. Department of Labor, is extremely misleading.

Right now, we're hearing much celebrating from the media, the White House and Wall Street about how unemployment is "down" to 5.6%. The cheerleading for this number is deafening. The media loves a comeback story, the White House wants to score political points and Wall Street would like you to stay in the market.

None of them will tell you this: If you, a family member or anyone is unemployed and has subsequently given up on finding a job -- if you are so hopelessly out of work that you've stopped looking over the past four weeks -- the Department of Labor doesn't count you as unemployed. That's right. While you are as unemployed as one can possibly be, and tragically may never find work again, you are not counted in the figure we see relentlessly in the news -- currently 5.6%. Right now, as many as 30 million Americans are either out of work or severely underemployed. Trust me, the vast majority of them aren't throwing parties to toast "falling" unemployment...
http://www.gallup.com/opinion/chairman/181469/big-lie-unemployment.aspx



Cass Sunstein (Obama’s former head of the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs) advocates that the Government’s stealth infiltration should be accomplished by sending covert agents into “chat rooms, online social networks, or even real-space groups.” He also proposes that the Government make secret payments to so-called “independent” credible voices to bolster the Government’s messaging (on the ground that those who don’t believe government sources will be more inclined to listen to those who appear independent while secretly acting on behalf of the Government).
http://www.salon.com/2010/01/15/sunstein_2/


DCBob

(24,689 posts)
21. The bigger lie is that this is something new.
Sun Feb 8, 2015, 10:57 AM
Feb 2015

Thats the way the unemployment number has been calculated for decades so trends up or down are significant.

 

1StrongBlackMan

(31,849 posts)
20. Did you read the OP in your first link? ...
Sun Feb 8, 2015, 10:48 AM
Feb 2015

It places the manufacturing job loss attributable to trade deficits at 20% ... meaning the vast major of manufacturing job losses had nothing to do with trade deficits. And that was looking at 2000-2003 numbers, when productivity was nowhere near what it is today and domestic use of US produced goods was far higher.

So one would suspect that if Bivens were to run the numbers from this decade, the job loss attributable to trade deficits would be even less.

That said, I am highly suspicious of any OP talking about trade deficits ... that doesn't mention a prime determinate of trade deficit/surplus ... the relative strength of the respective currencies.

ETA: And oh yeah ... even through the piece is a paper ... Bivens should know, it is bad academic form to cite to ones self.

pampango

(24,692 posts)
6. Krugman: Stronger dollar has increased the trade deficit
Sun Feb 8, 2015, 07:52 AM
Feb 2015

But a stronger dollar will make US goods less competitive, and act as a brake on further recovery. So how do we think about this? How much of the US recovery will be diffused to other countries via dollar strength and a bigger trade deficit?

What about the exchange rate and the trade balance? Hold off on that for a minute.

So what happens? Our currency rises, which causes a larger trade deficit ...

So, what’s actually happening? The dollar is rising a lot, which suggests that markets regard the relative rise in US demand as a fairly long-term phenomenon – which in turn should mean that a lot of the rise in US demand ends up benefiting other countries. In other words, the strong dollar probably is going to be a major drag on recovery.

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/02/06/the-dollar-and-the-recovery-wonkish/

RiverLover

(7,830 posts)
8. This makes me think of The Nation's article in 2013
Sun Feb 8, 2015, 08:29 AM
Feb 2015
Why Was Paul Krugman So Wrong?
Everyone's favorite Nobel-winning Keynesian is no longer gravely deluded on the global economy. How much can we trust him now?


...Paul Krugman was himself a “supposed authority” who gravely misled the American public on how to think about free-trade globalization. As threatening losses and dislocations accumulated for the US, the celebrated economist was like Voltaire’s Dr. Pangloss, assuring everyone not to worry. Pay no attention to those critics dwelling on the dark side of globalization, he said. Economic theory confirms that free trade is the best of all possible policies in this best of all possible worlds.

A good many Americans did not believe him, mainly working people who saw their jobs and middle-class wages decimated by the processes of globalizing production. Krugman said they didn’t see the big picture. Educated professionals whose own livelihoods were not threatened by globalization were more likely to embrace Krugman’s perspective. While he never won the debate with the broad public, his argument prevailed where it counts – among the political elites who influence government policy-making. Both political parties, every president from Reagan to Obama, embraced the same free-trade strategy: support US multinational corporations in global competition, as their success is bound to lift the rest of the country.

Roughly speaking, the opposite occurred, not only for the working class but for the broad US economy. The multinationals did fine, but the nation is now mired in large and permanent trade deficits that translate into huge indebtedness to foreign trading partners in Asia and Europe and that exerts continuing downward pressure on US employment and wages. Yet the Obama government is seeking still more free-trade agreements as the answer. The current fiscal debates in Congress do not even recognize that free trade globalization is a core source of America’s diminished prosperity....

http://www.thenation.com/article/173593/why-was-paul-krugman-so-wrong


The TPP, btw, does nothing to stop currency manipulation by other countries. To put pressure on to have this included,the Alliance for American Manufacturing makes it EASY to write your reps in congress~

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10026181506

pampango

(24,692 posts)
17. It is not illogical for a stronger dollar to make exports more expensive and imports cheaper.
Sun Feb 8, 2015, 09:10 AM
Feb 2015

Krugman can make mistakes. It would be foolish to say that anyone is perfect.

To say that he was wrong about globalization itself may not be accurate. He seems to believe that our problems are not due to globalization but our domestic policies that prevent us from benefiting from it in the way that progressive countries benefit.

RiverLover

(7,830 posts)
18. Read the OP article. Currency manipulation plays a role & we don't try to stop it.
Sun Feb 8, 2015, 09:47 AM
Feb 2015

And the TPP will do NOTHING to change the currency manipulation by others. And it doesn't change the FACT that
Trade Deficits=Job Losses for US.

OP article~
...A major cause of the trade deficits was currency manipulation by other countries. By manipulating the value of their own currency countries can cause American-made goods and services to cost more internationally. China and Japan are two of the worst offenders.

Currency manipulation is not addressed in the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement now under negotiation.

A February 2014 report from the Economic Policy Institute (EPI), "Stop Currency Manipulation and Create Millions of Jobs," shows how currency manipulation by China and others are costing the United States between 2.3 million to 5.8 million jobs.

Japan's currency manipulation contributes to the approx. 897,000 us jobs lost to our 2013 trade deficit with that country -- 466,000 of those in manufacturing....
 

djean111

(14,255 posts)
2. Because it is not about free trade, it is about global corporatism.
Sun Feb 8, 2015, 07:26 AM
Feb 2015

It is, actually, the ultimate austerity package, eventually.

benz380

(534 posts)
9. And why don't Hillary supporters see there will be more of the same if she is elected?
Sun Feb 8, 2015, 08:39 AM
Feb 2015

Goldman Sachs, Murdoch, TPP, Wall Street...
The only way I could support her is if I were well-off and part of the "I got mine, so forget you" crowd.



 

djean111

(14,255 posts)
10. I don't know. It is weird. So personality based. So win whatever the consequences based.
Sun Feb 8, 2015, 08:47 AM
Feb 2015

I don't think she can win, she is very shaky on liberal or progressive rhetoric, and, of course, whoever the GOP runs will be stellar at GOP "values".
But, yeah, if she wins, she is the poster child for global corporatism. For Wall Street. For banks. And those special interests do not wish us well. At all. But when I read a totally sincere comment that insists Hillary is The One because Wall Street and the banks have already given her a huge amount of money - there is such a yawning chasm of a lack of awareness that it would be comical if it was not frightening.
She will ride the TPP/TTIP like Major Kong.
All we will have is Lesser Evil.

RiverLover

(7,830 posts)
11. Excellent post.
Sun Feb 8, 2015, 08:56 AM
Feb 2015
"But when I read a totally sincere comment that insists Hillary is The One because Wall Street and the banks have already given her a huge amount of money - there is such a yawning chasm of a lack of awareness that it would be comical if it was not frightening."


Thank you.

stillwaiting

(3,795 posts)
14. Republicans can make Hillary look very, very bad regarding the Bosnia gaffe.
Sun Feb 8, 2015, 09:02 AM
Feb 2015

I know that it has already been reported on, but it is so very ripe to be exploited by the assholes in the Republican Party.

If Brian Williams continues to receive such widespread condemnation and is effectively labeled a liar, I can just imagine the ads already that will target Hillary.

And, I do think there is a chance they will be successful with enough of the tuned-out American population to label Hillary a liar and not to be trusted to run our country.

Even if she's running against Jeb Bush or Scott Walker (which is a horrifying thought).

I'm just thinking about what they did successfully with John Kerry (Swift Boat Vets) even when they should not have been able to do so.

Hillary has a potentially very troubling area that is just waiting to be exploited, and it's one that I think could be exploited successfully.

progree

(10,908 posts)
23. And its more than a gaffe -- she repeated it more than once
Sun Feb 8, 2015, 11:01 AM
Feb 2015

In my mind, a gaffe is when you make an unintentional mistake -- like when the tongue gets ahead of the brain. When one deliberately repeats it, that's something else. If it was a Republican we were talking about, we would correctly call it a fucking out and out bald-faced lie. But since DU exists to unite and coronate Hillary, then, yeah, let's just call it a gaffe.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/25/us/politics/25clinton.html

woo me with science

(32,139 posts)
24. +100000 Not failed policy at all
Sun Feb 8, 2015, 11:10 AM
Feb 2015

for the One Percent and their purchased, corrupt politicians.

They are laughing and lying all the way to the bank.

aspirant

(3,533 posts)
30. Maybe it goes beyond global corporatism
Sun Feb 8, 2015, 01:17 PM
Feb 2015

to become World Domination. IMO, when corporatists/bankers have locked so many countries up in these suffocating trade deals that they can crash any nation's economy at will, this is global dictatorship.

Enthusiast

(50,983 posts)
12. K&R! This post deserves hundreds of recommendations!
Sun Feb 8, 2015, 08:59 AM
Feb 2015

John Kerry is a fucking liar. He did not deserve my support in the 2004 election. I allowed my hatred for Bush to cloud my judgement.

Jackpine Radical

(45,274 posts)
27. We were all voting for the John Kerry of the VVAW and Iran-Contra.
Sun Feb 8, 2015, 12:09 PM
Feb 2015

We weren't idiots, our judgment wasn't clouded. Kerry had changed.

Even so, as SoS, I think he did a great job on the effort to keep us out of combat in Syria earlier, and there were some other good effects of his tenure.

On this one, though, he is very wrong.

I'm tempted to point out that Kerry married his money; he didn't acquire it by understanding economics.

Autumn

(45,097 posts)
29. Well it would look silly if he pulled a rabbit out of his hat. Trix and all that stuff
Sun Feb 8, 2015, 12:15 PM
Feb 2015

Or Tricks and all the usual stuff.

RiverLover

(7,830 posts)
35. Was in a sad, formerly lovely small Ohio town today.
Tue Feb 10, 2015, 08:47 PM
Feb 2015

It's not looking so good since the factories have shut down and moved to Mexico, making CEOs & stockholders better off with low wage workers, and turning town's like the one I saw today into a ghost of its former self. Such beautiful old homes, crumbling now.

Truly heartbreaking.

woo me with science

(32,139 posts)
36. +100000000
Wed Feb 11, 2015, 08:51 AM
Feb 2015

Even in towns not yet devastated, so much looks tired and abandoned. Infrastructure neglected, potholes. People can't afford to keep their lawns and homes maintained the way they used to.

This country has been hollowed out from within.

Latest Discussions»General Discussion»Enormous, Humongous Trade...