Blizzard forecast in parts of northeast turning out to be a huge bust forecast

[brentspeak]

An embarrassingly colossal mistake (though parts of New England should get some major snow). As acknowledged by the NOAA meteorologist whose twitter postings played a large part in sounding warning alarms about the so-called "blizzard".

[chillfactor]

1. in case you are commenting w/o watching the coverage

many areas are in blizzard conditions and many people have lost power...and hold your posts until the storm is over....nor'easters are dangerous, unpredictable storms

[brentspeak]

2. I have watched the coverage

And the weather services have significantly downgraded the severity of the storm for the Philly and NJ areas. The NWS chief meteorologist in Mt. Holly, NJ has already apologized for the missed forecast.

[chillfactor]

5. yet millions still affected by the storm...

some downgrades happen in storms even huge storms like this one

anyone with a lick of sense knows forecasting is not an exact science ...tell the millions of people being affected by this storm that it is a bust........

[brentspeak]

6. If you feel that strongly about this

You're actually talking to the wrong person.

Go on twitter and say something to the NOAA meteorologist who is publicly apologizing for the forecast.

[chillfactor]

8. one area was downgraded ...ONE...

the way you worded your post was humiliating...." embarrassingly colossal mistake"..really? ONE downgraded area and millions others being affected....think about how you post things...

[Retrograde]

17. Millions in the NYC area could have been affected

and that's where most news organizations are located, so it's going to get an undue amount of coverage. Snow in January! OMG!! I'm peeved that Maddow and O'Donnell devoted their entire shows last night to a local issue. Mentioning the storm and advising people to be prepared is fine - and it's the job of local television stations, who often know more about the practical issues anyway.

[kcr]

28. The meteorologist is apologizing because it's NYC and NJ

Whether or not anyone else is affected is something that other stations that aren't carried in HD on the cable are concerned with. NYC actually cancelled school. Someone will have to answer for this.

[pansypoo53219]

31. its a sandy thing. the euro forecasted sandy better, the euros had it more over NYC & NJ. so i think

they were looking more at the euro models for the storm THIS TIME.

[kcr]

33. I was joking, but yeah, I think you're right.

Euro is usually more accurate but still prone to busts. They have a new HD model that for some reason they chose to ignore this time. If they hadn't they would have been okay.

[TreasonousBastard]

3. Is it now? I'm in the middle of it and...

we're at 8" so far and its supposed to keep up until the afternoon. Maybe we won't get the 2-3' forecast, but with the temps in the low 20s and wind in the 40s and up it's bad enough.

It's definitely not the worst storm we've seen, so far, but nobody's laughing.

(And the power has been on, but the cable was out for a couple of hours.)

[brentspeak]

4. Are you in the Philly/NJ area?

That bust forecast is what the NOAA is apologizing about.

[TreasonousBastard]

9. Shit happens with forecasts-- are you complaining that you didn't have enough snow?

[brentspeak]

15. Do you see me complaining?

NWS blunders with the forecast, the head guy for the service apologizes, I post about it, and yet the messenger gets shot.

[longship]

12. For Christ sakes. Let it go. Weather forecasting is not exact. nt

[msongs]

7. all the forecasts Ive read the past fews days are for blizzards NYC and east only nt

[TorchTheWitch]

14. Philadelphia area has been preparing for a major storm for days

Schools closed, no trash collection, etc. Emergency pre-declared and whatever that entails claiming we'd be getting 8-10 inches Monday through Tuesday. Know what the forecast is now? Up to an inch if that!

[PCIntern]

25. wonder if Bolaris will get blamed again!

Remember that mess?

[PotatoChip]

30. There is frequently tons of coverage regarding bitter cold temps in the upper midwest.

Yet, we very often get the exact same air-mass a few days later, at which point the media has completely forgotten about it. Frequently it is even colder than what the midwest had when it gets here too.

In fact, I rarely ever see much weather coverage north of Boston. I assume it has much to do with the fact that Boston and points south on to D.C. are very densely populated areas.

Obviously this is not always the case. But it certainly does seem to be the general 'rule of thumb'.

Btw- Not whining... This is just a general observation.

[Atman]

10. Oh... NJ & Philly are spared. That's all that matters.

Blowing and snowing like a mofo up here in CT, though. At least NJ & Philly were spared, because no one else matters.

[cwydro]

11. Im watching the weather channel

from the warm safety of my southern home.

Looks bad to me.

[ChosenUnWisely]

13. So I take it you live in the North East and everything should be up and running like normal?

or do you live in some other part of the world?

[oberliner]

16. Very glad

Could've been a real nightmare.

And it looks like it is for folks in Suffolk County and parts of New England.

[mythology]

18. You're welcome to come up and shovel off the deck, front walkway and driveway for me

Because it's 10 degrees, powerful gusting winds and accumulations of snow well over a foot, and probably closer to 2 feet. Which isn't a "so-called 'blizzard'" nor were the warnings an embarrassingly colossal mistake, particularly for those of us who live in areas that are still getting snow and winds for several more hours.

Yes the storm didn't hit as hard as it could, particularly in the southern reaches of the storm, but it's still a major storm that had and continues to have the capacity to cause injury and death.

Additionally in order to properly prepare, cities/states have to mobilize ahead of time. You can't realistically wait until the storm hits to start doing things. Look at what happened in Atlanta during last February's major ice storm and how once it hit everything went to shit.

[babylonsister]

19. Better safe than sorry; that also applies to hurricanes. nt

[underpants]

20. Yes this is the #1 story at Drudge Report - sepcific to NY and NJ

http://l1.yimg.com/bt/api/res/1.2/bLVFFZkWjZSt2VpoG9qxhw--/YXBwaWQ9eW5ld3M7Zmk9ZmlsbDtoPTMwMDtpbD1wbGFuZTtweW9mZj0wO3E9NzU7dz00NTA-/

HISTORIC
SNOW JOB...
Meteorologist apologizes...
Weather Service to 'evaluate modeling'...
Residents Lash Out...
'TRAVEL BAN' NEW NORM...
LIVE: TIMES SQUARE CAM...
6,000+ flights canceled...
Grocery stores cleaned out...
CHRISTIE: Be Home By 9...
Mayor Thanks Sharpton for 'Climate Change' Work...


It's at the Drudge Report - no putting link to it on DU

[FLPanhandle]

21. I've learned the media always gives the worst case scenario

It's great for ratings to only talk about the upper end of the worst case possibility.

[Glassunion]

22. So where exactly is this "huge bust" / "embarrasingly colossal mistake"?

Where in the math did they screw up?

In their shoes, with the models they had available at the time, what would you have done?

[Skidmore]

23. Would defunding NOAA and

firing all weathermen be a worthy sacrifice for you?

[brentspeak]

36. Yeah, because that's precisely the point my OP was arguing

Good grief...

[PCIntern]

24. Huge bust. You mean like Dolly Parton? nt

[Glassunion]

27. Yes. Ahh I love this photo of Dolly's huge bust...

[Beacool]

26. It wasn't too bad in my part of NJ (right across the river from Manhattan),

but other places got it bad, like MA for example. We got around 8.1", which is a fair amount of snow, but not the 2 - 3 feet they predicted.

[elias49]

29. Works for me in western New Hampshire!

I was expecting a 2-day dig out. Instead, we got around 5". But it's cold, and it blows back in your face when you sno-blo.
I'm done for the day.
Stay safe everyone.

[backscatter712]

32. Glad it didn't cause much damage.

The articles I've been reading suggest that all the ingredients for a monster storm were present, and then at the last minute, the storm fizzled.

Oh well, meteorology is hard, and I suspect the guys doing this for a living with the letters after their names would issue the same warnings if they saw the same data next week. Weather is chaotic, and we can make educated predictions as to what it's going to do, but sometimes, the dice roll differently.

[tblue37]

34. Good. I always prefer when dangerous storms decide not to show up after all. nt

[KittyWampus]

35. Nothing to be embarrassed about. We have over TWO FEET OF SNOW.

And it hasn't stopped yet. It's at about 28".

So they weren't wrong. The storm curved eastward.

[NutmegYankee]

37. There was no "embarrassingly colossal mistake" The forecast was actually very good.

The weather service predicted a new low forming and intensifying. They predicted high winds and two foot snowfalls. All that happened was the storm track shifted 50 miles to the East. 50 miles! But otherwise dead on! Even the max gusts were right!

The National Weather Service is only apologizing because a lot of people in Major cities far to the west of the forecast got some butthurt from not getting their back breaking deluge of snow. They should be happy. I got the winds and 2 feet of snow. It sucked to dig out!