The World Has Little Use For A Suburban American Single Family Home Priced Over $250K

[FarCenter]

If there’s one asset the world has little use for, it’s an American single family home priced above 250K, reachable only by car.

The great, post-war buildout of America’s suburbs relied upon the continuance of a favorable arbitrage between rising wages, and low transportation costs. Now that this profitable scheme has come to an end, it should be no surprise that Robert Shiller remarked this week that housing “may not recover in our lifetime.”

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But the majority of American homes, in order to capture any future increase in value, will need to benefit again from rising wages and flat to falling energy costs. At the current juncture, those are two trends unlikely to appear any time soon.

Advantages will accrue, therefore, to US residential real estate near rail lines. Cities that wish to thrive will need to face up to these realities soon by halting all investment in roads and highways, diverting transport funding to rail and BRT (Bus Rapid Transit), and by extending these transport networks further into residential communities through walking and bike paths.


http://www.businessinsider.com/american-houses-and-the-oil-denominator-2012-4

[izquierdista]

1. It will take a long time

America has developed for 50 years, completely ignoring the rail lines. While European countries have integrated roads and rail lines to make livable cities, almost all traces of rail infrastructure that once supported cities in America is gone. The depots have turned into antique marts and the rails themselves turned into bicycle paths. All that is left are freight yards in the cruddy part of town.

[Snake Alchemist]

6. And Europeans generally raise families in flats.

That may be the direction we need to head in.

[LTX]

20. I'm not sure this is true.

The percentage of single family detached housing in Europe has grown rather dramatically, and I think the notion of multi-dwelling complexes being predominant is the result of familiarity with large urban environments in Europe, and lack of familiarity with non-urban environments.

An interesting article on Danish housing, for example, notes that 41% of the housing stock there is single family detached housing, the largest single percentage in a grouping that also includes farmhouses (5%), terraced houses (13%), and multi-story building (39%).

http://boligforskning.dk/sites/default/files/HEV_Realdania_single_family_101006[1].pdf

[rustydog]

8. It is sad that we as a Nation lags behind other nations in transportation and energy

My hometown's railway station is a shopping mall...trains still pass through town. that is the problem, they pass THROUGH town.

My new hometown has a large neighbor that is trying to decide how to work around the bothersome pain-in-the-ass rail line that passes right through town....

[lonestarnot]

2. Well I hear that NY has 10 helipads and that San Paulo has 250. Is that what we're after?

I can't fly a kite. Never has worked for me. Oh lookie I had the number wrong. 420 helipads.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/jun/20/brazil

In the city of Sao Paulo alone there are 420 helicopters, which can be seen day and night cruising high above its vast concrete horizon. Analysts say another 83 helicopters will join the city's fleet by 2010.

[MrTriumph]

3. Baloney from Business Insider

If you believe BI, then you believe that rail is immune from rising fuel costs. Rail is not immune.

Further, we are experiencing a wave of great advances in auto technology. Starting in the 1980s: Common use of Fuel injection. Now we have hybrids. We also will see Programmable Fuel Injection which will better tailor fuel use to specific needs. We are in the early days of advances in transmission technology and the use of carbon fiber for weight savings and better fuel economy. And direct injection will soon be introduced to the USA by Fiat, producing even greater advances in fuel economy.

If you think the car is obsolete, you are old school.

[Fumesucker]

10. All of the technologies you list increase the purchase cost of an auto..

The car is by no means obsolete but it is becoming out of reach financially for an ever growing segment of the population.

The characteristic that most strongly effects the efficiency of a car is it's size.

Can you name a make/model of car that has gotten *smaller* as it aged and new variants brought to market?

[obxhead]

17. Just off the top of my head.

Mustang
Camaro
Malibu
Crown Vic/Caprice
Cadillac and Lincoln (all of them)

I could go on and on if I really started looking into it.

SUV's have generally stayed large, but many cars, especially American cars have shrunk significantly in size and more importantly in weight. This is coming from a Honda owner of 25 years as well.

[Fumesucker]

21. The curb weight of a 1965 Mustang was 2445 lbs..

A 2012 Mustang has a curb weight of 3453 lbs..

A 1967 Camaro weighed 2920 lbs..

A 2012 Camaro is 3750 lbs..

[MrTriumph]

22. Not necessarily

Yes, there are R&D costs. My small company- without any government assistance of any kind (handouts)- actually develops PFI & other fuel delivery systems and markets them for used cars. So we understand R&D costs. But cost varies when more more advanced systems to replace old ones in new cars.

There is a kernel of truth in your statement "The characteristic that most strongly effects the efficiency of a car is it's size." However, weight and shape are equally important.

I do share your concern that we Amercians buy too many heavy, blocky, big SUVs, pickups and sedans when more efficient, comfortable vehicles would easily substitute.

Finally, to be fair, I should have mentioned that locomotive drivetrain and powerplant technology is advancing as well.

[Fumesucker]

23. I think it's interesting that the Lexus LS460 sedan has a CD essentially the same as a Prius..

Your point about weight and shape is true no doubt but I was actually using "size" as shorthand for both size and weight, it was just an offhand post and I wasn't striving for total technical accuracy.

I remember after the last time gasoline prices peaked it took about three months after they dropped for the F150 to once again become the most popular new vehicle in the country. It's amazing to me sometimes how short the memory of many Americans is. My daughter bought a Tahoe a couple of years ago, when she was shopping I gently reminded her of the fact that gas prices were almost certainly going to go up again and was reprimanded and told to mind my own business. Today she's looking to get a more efficient vehicle because gas prices are once again high and thanks to a new job her commute distance has more than doubled. The temptation to say "I told you so" is difficult to resist sometimes.

Do you have a link for to a website for your products? I'm interested in such things and would like to read more about your efforts in that regard.

[FarCenter]

12. Commuter, subway and light rail systems usually run on electricity, which is from multiple sources

Advances in auto technology will cushion the blow, but the technology will make cars relatively more expensive, and fuel efficiency will not go up as fast as liquid fuel prices.

Brent is at $120.10 / barrel.

[leveymg]

4. In the DC and NYC burbs, there's little else. But, fewer actually commute these days,

so gas prices are less of an issue. The trend is toward telecommuting, plug-in hybrids and home energy generation. It'll take a while to get there, but I don't think the detached suburban home is dead. Being stacked on top of other people in urban high rises isn't for everyone.

[TwilightGardener]

7. I agree--America's a big country, lots of room. We don't all need or want to live in

an urban setting. I'd go crazy without some open space and some quiet.

[Johnny Rico]

15. I live in the mountains west of Denver. I'll never go back to an urban lifestyle.

A 35 mile commute is well worth it to be able live in such a setting.

[FarCenter]

5. Peak Housing, Peak Fraud, Peak Suburbia And Peak Property Taxes

http://www.businessinsider.com/peak-housing-peak-fraud-peak-suburbia-and-peak-property-taxes-2012-4

[cali]

9. that's delusional. and the asshat seems to forget

that those of us in rural America need roads and highways.

[FarCenter]

14. You will have a lot fewer hard-surface roads

In the rural county of my childhood, there were only 3 hard surface roads in the county, a federal highway and two state highways. All the rest of the roads were gravel, except for town streets.

As less and less crude oil is refined, there is less and less cheap asphalt for roadbuilding. Cement for concrete is too expensive for secondary roads.

[ileus]

11. Well at least we don't have to worry about the "world" buying our homes up.

[bongbong]

13. Interurbans

The history of the Interurban rail system is not known by probably 99.9% of America.

99.9% is NOT an exaggeration.

The fact it was destroyed largely on purpose to make a few rich people richer is ironic

And the fact that it was a European-like mass transit - but on steroids (at least in station coverage) - is an even more glaring irony.

AND the fact that America was able to do this almost 100 years ago is the final, mega-irony.

[JDPriestly]

16. I live in a hilly area of Los Angeles.

At one time, streetcars were so common on our streets that stairs were built in the sides of our hills so that people could climb up and down to get to and from the streetcars. Old photos of our area, not far from downtown Los Angeles, show the crisscrossing streetcar tracks and lots of of bustling activity. Must have been great. We climb the old stairs for exercise, but I would love to see a return to something like streetcars.

I think that the aging population may demand a lot more public transportation even in rural areas. After all, we used to have passenger trains and buses to connect us from rural areas to cities.

[datasuspect]

18. 100 mile round trip ciommute here

i easily put between 500 - 800 miles per week on a car.

drive small 4 banger, 30 mpg, all interstate door to door.

from rural village to suburban office.

wouldn't trade it for city life. ever.

[truebrit71]

19. Certainly less useful than one of Anne Rmoney's dressage horses...

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