UPDATE: Japan expresses outrage at hostage report, vows 'utmost efforts' to free them

[oberliner]

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Jan. 20 expressed strong anger at the Islamic State extremist group that claimed in a video posted on the Internet that it has taken two Japanese citizens as hostages and will kill them unless Japan pays $200 million (about 23.6 billion yen) in ransom within 72 hours.

“It is an unforgivable act of terror to use human lives (of the hostages) as shields and make the threat. I feel strong anger,” Abe said in a news conference in Jerusalem during his tour of the Middle East.

“I strongly demand that the group not injure the two Japanese and it releases them immediately,” he also said.

“In cooperation with the international society, we will make further contributions to the regional peace and safety. We will not change this policy,” he added.

http://ajw.asahi.com/article/behind_news/social_affairs/AJ201501200083

Do you think they will survive?

[brooklynite]

1. If the only the Japanese hadn't sent in troops and drones, this would never have happened...

...by these lone wolves who have no actual link to religion.

[oberliner]

4. Well said

How do folks reconcile their ridiculous views with horrible incidents like this?

[Lurks Often]

2. Unlikely

Absent solid information on their location a hostage rescue mission isn't going to take place.

[oberliner]

3. What about a "give them the money" mission?

That's how some countries handle this sort of thing.

[Lurks Often]

5. I see multiple problems with that approach

In no particular order:

1. $200 million takes up a lot of space and weight
2. ISIS isn't as stupid as we would like, so they will probably insist on a single vehicle or helicopter no bigger then a UH-60 Blackhawk or equivalent which limits the number of special ops people you can use.
3. They will be certain to have a lot of armed people there, possibly even armored vehicles, certainly too many for any special forces unit limited by 2), no matter how good, to kill or capture before the hostages are killed.
4. The hostages would be killed at the slightest hint of any trick or treachery on the rescuers part.
5. Suppose they only allow one vehicle AND insist the transaction take place in a town they control, lots and lots more hostages and ISIS soldiers, while preventing the rescuers from using air support.

There are probably more. My guess is that some form of wire transfer or electronic transfer with no face to face meeting is what ISIS will insist on.

[oberliner]

6. Sorry, I wasn't clear

I meant - why doesn't Japan just give them the money and get their hostages back? I believe that several European countries have done this successfully.

[Lurks Often]

7. Most countries choose not to negotiate because they recognize

that once they do, it increases the chances of their citizens being taken hostage, not just by the original hostage takers, but by other hostile groups and in greater numbers and for even more money.

Additionally at what point does a country finally decide to say no more?

I also think ISIS can't be trusted to release the hostages even if they did get the money.

[oberliner]

8. Reasonable points

In any case, things do not look hopeful for these Japanese hostages.