Joel Kotkin: The Great California Exodus

[steve2470]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304444604577340531861056966.html

'California is God's best moment," says Joel Kotkin. "It's the best place in the world to live." Or at least it used to be.

Mr. Kotkin, one of the nation's premier demographers, left his native New York City in 1971 to enroll at the University of California, Berkeley. The state was a far-out paradise for hipsters who had grown up listening to the Mamas & the Papas' iconic "California Dreamin'" and the Beach Boys' "California Girls." But it also attracted young, ambitious people "who had a lot of dreams, wanted to build big companies." Think Intel, Apple and Hewlett-Packard.

Now, however, the Golden State's fastest-growing entity is government and its biggest product is red tape. The first thing that comes to many American minds when you mention California isn't Hollywood or tanned girls on a beach, but Greece. Many progressives in California take that as a compliment since Greeks are ostensibly happier. But as Mr. Kotkin notes, Californians are increasingly pursuing happiness elsewhere.

Nearly four million more people have left the Golden State in the last two decades than have come from other states. This is a sharp reversal from the 1980s, when 100,000 more Americans were settling in California each year than were leaving. According to Mr. Kotkin, most of those leaving are between the ages of 5 and 14 or 34 to 45. In other words, young families.

*end of excerpt*

Fastest growing entity is government and biggest product is red tape ?? Leave it to the WSJ to ruin an article.

[HereSince1628]

1. The 2010 census showed California grew ~10% from 2000 to 2010...

"California’s delegation did not lose or gain seats because its population grew at roughly the same rate as the rest of the nation. The state grew 10% between 2000 and 2010 to nearly 37.3 million residents. Nationwide, the country grew 9.7% to 308.7 million residents, the smallest rate of growth since the Great Depression." http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/lanow/2010/12/census-congregational-districts-california.html


So I don't understand the math behind the statement "Nearly four million more people have left the Golden State in the last two decades than have come from other states"


My grandfather taught me early that figures don't lie, but liars like to figure. It doesn't get past me that the WSJ appeals to people who like playing with numbers, and that the the four million person loss over 20 years is clearly not a simple difference between the 1990 census and the 2010 census.

In 1990 the census bureau reported Cali's population was 29,760,021, in 2010 the census bureau reported Cali's population as 37,253,956

[RobertEarl]

2. Births, is your answer, 1628

Californicators have passed the best environmental laws in the nation. Call it red tape, if you will, but the laws were needed. California leads the nation and the rest of us need to catch up.

[HereSince1628]

3. Yes, that's one of the important missing variables in play,

To get to a net negative migration figure you'd have to control for _both_ births and deaths from the total data.