Juan Cole: Could Years more of Syrian Civil War be Avoided by Comprehensive Talks with Iran?

[pampango]

Because the inner core of the Syrian regime is bound together by ties of sect and kinship, it is unlikely to fragment. And since it and its main constituency come from the minority Alawite community, it truly believes the only choices are to fight to the bitter end or face annihilation. Because the opposition is so fractious, it is unlikely to prevail, although it is improbable that the regime will be able to uproot it entirely from its rural and frontier strongholds.

As of now, a negotiated settlement is only possible if two conditions are met. First, both the regime and the “moderate” opposition – the Free Syrian Army, the Islamic Front, etc.– would have to view the battlefield situation as hopelessly deadlocked, and they would have to do so simultaneously. After all, if there was a chance your side might achieve total victory, why bother to attempt to reach a compromise through negotiations? (Jabhat al-Nusra, the “official” al-Qaeda affiliate in Syria, and the Islamic State would also have to be neutralized to prevent them from acting as spoilers.)

The second condition that has to be fulfilled to reach a negotiated settlement is that outside players – the United States and other Western states, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Russia, Iran, and others – would also have to come to the conclusion, again simultaneously, that there was no chance their clients could score a victory on the battlefield and that, in the big scheme of things, the battle for Syria was just not worth the cost. Otherwise, when your side is down why not try to restore its fortunes by pumping in more supplies, heavier and more lethal weapons, cash, and perhaps fresh recruits?

There is one possibility, albeit farfetched, that might enable a negotiated settlement to prevail. So far, the United States and its allies have been acting as if Syria were a chess game where a win for one side on a two-dimensional board means a loss for the other. Why not start playing three-dimensional chess? In other words, why treat Syria as a separate problem to be solved in isolation? Why not complicate the Syria problem by making it one of a number of issues to be brought to the table at the same time? This would increase the number of possible trade-offs and compromises, allow governments to save face through reciprocal exchanges, and make grand bargains possible.

http://www.juancole.com/2014/12/syrian-avoided-comprehensive.html

The author makes it clear that he does not think this alternative scenario is likely but that it represents a way out of endless civil war.

The reference to playing three-dimensional chess is funny given the past DU penchant for claiming (or ridiculing) the prospect of Obama playing mufti-dimensional chess.