What the Hell Happened in Vermont?!

[cali]

In an election cycle of shocking surprises—Larry Hogan’s win in Maryland, Mark Warner’s near-death experience—none are greater than the slap in the face Vermont voters gave Governor Peter Shumlin. Ten days after the election, Shumlin, who as Chairman of the Democratic Governor’s Association was tasked with helping elect other Democratic governors, still has not been declared winner in a race no one thought was a contest.

In 2014, few thought he would have a tough race. Republicans had a difficult time fielding a candidate, and only after the 2012 Marijuana Party candidate announced she’d run as a Republican did the party establishment, led by former governor Jim Douglas, unify around businessman Scott Milne. Though he had never held office before, he was the son of two prominent Republicans and had the sort of bio Vermonters love: raised on a farm, small businessman, an avid hiker who lived next to the Appalachian Trail.

He spent only $20,000 on television to win the August Republican primary, and no one seriously thought he had a chance to win the general. At least until around 9 pm on election night when the numbers showed him in a dead heat with Peter Shumlin. In the end, Shumlin led by a puny 2,434 votes, less than the 50 percent margin needed for victory under Vermont law. This throws the election into the Vermont state house, where Democrats have a sizeable advantage.

<snip>

Assuming he sticks it out, the election will be thrown into the Vermont state house, where Democrats have a sizeable advantage. It’s assumed the vote will go Shumlin’s way. But for a governor who was never very popular with fellow state legislators when he was a colleague and has often treated them dismissively as governor, it is most humbling that his fate now rests in their hands.

How did the Chairman of the Democratic Governors Association in the bluest of blue states not even make it to 50 while Vermont’s single Congressman, Democratic Peter Welch, won with 64 percent? This in a state that has a near record-low unemployment of 4.4 percent.

<snip>

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/11/13/what-the-hell-happened-in-vermont.html

In a state this small, you can't get away for too long with the shit Peter Shumlin has pulled. Yes, he's supposedly the most liberal governor in the country, but his incompetency, the ongoing disaster of the health exchange, his lack of virtually any good relationships with fellow lawmakers in his own party, and the nasty story about his cheating a poor neighbor out of his property, all caught up with him. In Vermont, all politics are super local.

[Vinca]

1. I've been following the health coverage discussion in Vermont and

my impression is that it is too confusing for the average person to understand. All that is getting across is that taxes will go up. Since Vermont is an expensive state to live in already, I think people are wondering how they can afford electricity and heating oil and food and health care, too. (That said, I'd take expensive Vermont any day over any inexpensive red state. LOL.)

[VanillaRhapsody]

2. how did they afford healthcare before?

[maced666]

3. They didn't

That's the point.

[MineralMan]

4. How was the voter turnout in VT?

The answer may lie there. GOTV is important.

[cali]

6. Terrible, but that doesn't change a thing that I wrote.

Shumlin's arrogance is pretty legendary in this state and that story about his cheating a poor, mentally disabled man out of his property, really slammed him. Part of the reason Vermonters didn't vote in the numbers they usually do is Shumlin. In fact, that's a lot of the reason.

[muriel_volestrangler]

5. Not that different from what happened in 2010, with a Libertarian and a slightly lower turnout

In the general election on November 2, 2010, Shumlin received the most votes, 119,543 (49.44%) to Republican Brian Dubie's 115,212 (47.69%).[26] Vermont requires candidates for Governor and some other statewide offices to obtain a majority of popular votes, otherwise the winner is chosen by the Vermont General Assembly.[27] Dubie did not contest the vote in the General Assembly, which almost always chooses the candidate who obtained a plurality in the general election, and on January 6, 2011 the General Assembly elected Shumlin by 145 votes (80.6%) to 28 (15.6%).
...
In the November 4 election, initial returns showed Shumlin with 89,874 votes and Milne with 87,786. Libertarian nominee Don Feliciano had 8,468 votes. When late returns and corrections were factored in, Shumlin's total was 89,509 votes, or 46.4%, with Milne receiving 87,075 or 45.1%, a difference of 2,434. The rest of the votes were scattered among Feliciano and other minor candidates.[68] The Vermont Constitution requires candidates for Governor and some other statewide offices to receive a majority of votes, otherwise the winner is selected by the Vermont General Assembly. In practice, the legislature almost always chooses the candidate who obtained a plurality of votes in the general election. As with Shumlin's 2010 election, the 2014 election will be decided by the legislature in January 2015.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Shumlin

No US Senate race in Vermont this year, so the lower turnout isn't that surprising. Shumlin did better in 2012 on the coattails of Obama and/or Sanders.

[cali]

7. quite different, actually. Dubie was a well known and quite popular Lt. Guv

Milne had never been elected to anything, his campaign was a joke. he had little funding. Again, in this state where people know their politicians and know the scuttlebutt out of the legislature, arrogance and lack of decent relationships within the dem conferences in the Senate and House, played a big piece. As did the miserable job he's done with the health exchange.

[muriel_volestrangler]

10. Looking at 2002, the last time there was no presidential or senatorial election, the Republican won

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Douglas

and he got absolute majorities in 2004, 2006 and 2008. Why is it such a surprise that a Republican came very close this time? What seems most surprising is that it took them time to put up a candidate.

[cali]

11. yes, it was. I live here. I know this state's politics inside and out

I know why Douglas was elected and re-elected. No offense, but you really don't know what you're talking about.

[2banon]

12. wow, this is informative Cali. I've been thinking about moving to Vermont for sometime.

As much as I've been at home in the Bay Area...over 40 years, I've been thinking about relocating but I need a political culture I can relate to and afford to live.

Washington State, Oregon or Vermont.

[muriel_volestrangler]

15. It seems worth mentioning, then, that Republicans frequently do well in Vermont governor elections

a point which didn't appear in the article the OP links to.

[cali]

16. yes, they do.

but the article was about this specific election. And sorry, but those of us familiar with the politics of this state were all quite surprised by how badly Shumlin did considering Milne's campaign. This is a guy who literally talked about watching bunnies fuck on the campaign trail. He was a joke of a candidate.

[frazzled]

8. Politics are very local everywhere

Even in a much larger state like mine (Illinois), I could ask why the Democratic governor fell (though not by much) to a parvenu billionaire Republican. And Pat Quinn is a nice guy, a very nice guy. He too had problems with his own party, and when people feel uncomfortable about things, whether it's the economy or ebola, jobs or jihadists, they will look for a change of any kind, even if it's not a rational one or aligned with their own political philosophies (if they have one).

Personalities, local conditions, and even the irrational whims or fears of the voting public all played into races across the country, each in very local ways. I don't find an overarching theme that can explain all of them. If politics were that easy we wouldn't have to be discussing it all the time.

[cali]

9. sure, but this is a state where people personally know many of their legislators

hell, you the legislative phone directory publishes their home phone numbers. the whole state is like one small town, and that has a big impact.

[Chathamization]

13. How come there wasn't any serious primary challenge? N/T

[cali]

14. that's a good question, and honestly I don't know.