General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsKilgore on TPM - "Mythbusting The Punditry Class' Election Postmortems"
This is actually quite an optimistic assessment. I put in the main categories (bold) with snips of a few summary statements. Worth reading it all.
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/cafe/mythbusting-the-punditry-class-election-postmortems
Republicans won a tsunami victory that portends a big win in 2016
Uh, no, probably not. ____snip_________
The Democratic GOTV operation was a failure
___snip_____But turnout was up from 2010 levels in most states with competitive ____snip____
Democrats should finally write off the south
_____snip_____The trend lines are actually positive, with the realignment towards Republicans of southern white voters reaching its point of diminishing returns______snip_______
'Populism' is the cure-all/wont work for Democrats
___________snip_____Id personally argue that what Democrats most need isnt less or more populism, but a more comprehensive economic message that explains how income equality is critical to growth and offers not just one but various ways to boost paychecks._____snip______
Fundamentals explain everything
_____snip_____But sometimes candidates and campaigns trump everything._________
snip
KoKo
(84,711 posts)------snip------
Id argue whats really obsolete is the get-as-far-to-the-right-as-possible Blue Dog model for southern Democratic success, epitomized by Rep. John Barrow (D-GA), who finally lost this year. Absent some strong, specifically partisan anti-Republican trend in a particular year, southern white conservative voters see no reason to vote Democratic any more, and each year their return becomes more unlikely. But ascending elements of the southern electorate, including transplants and knowledge workers, continue to be a ripe target for Democrats.
(And, this Snip....Reminds me of Edward's "Two Americas" which is even more true today than it was in 2004)
'Populism' is the cure-all/wont work for Democrats
Nothing was more ubiquitous in Democratic campaigns this year than support for such populist economic themes as a higher minimum wage, which polled well nearly everywhere and sometimes split Republicans. But even in states where voters approved minimum wage ballot initiatives, Democratic statewide candidates did not benefit, leading some observers to conclude populist appeals to reduce inequality might be less effective than a pro-growth message while others countered that a sharper populist message was needed when the Democratic Party holds the While House and is deemed responsible for the economy.
This is a dilemma for Democrats that goes back at least to the Clinton years, and will be partly ameliorated by the imminent departure from office of President Obama, making it easier for his successor as Democratic nominee to make 2016 a two futures choice of economic policies rather than a referendum on a status quo still suffering from the mistakes of the Bush administration. Id personally argue that what Democrats most need isnt less or more populism, but a more comprehensive economic message that explains how income equality is critical to growth and offers not just one but various ways to boost paychecks. Princeton professor Alan Blinder has made a pretty good start.
thanks! I am more in the mood for thoughtful analyses these days, not simple facebook memes. (although I suspect most of the public resonates more with memes than reading and analyzing anything of substance - the cynicism of getting to be a grumpy old guy, I guess!)