Why did Oregon get bluer while the nation got redder?

[ErikJ]

Voters across the nation awoke Wednesday morning to find their state at least a little bit redder than it was the day before.

The exception to that trend was Oregon where Democrats held the governorship while picking up seats in the state Legislature.

So, why did Oregonians step a little closer to the Democrats while their counterparts across the country stepped away?

Melissa Buis Michaux, an associate professor of politics at Willamette University, said the first clue can be found by looking at voter turnout.

Oregon had one of the highest turnouts at 69.5 percent.

In comparison, Maryland (a blue state that elected a Republican governor) had a voter turnout of 45 percent — which was 9 percentage points lower than the turnout it saw in 2010.

Low turnout favors Republican candidates because the people who stay home or fail to fill out a ballot are usually younger voters, minority voters and low-income voters.

"A lot of explanation for what happened in other states had to do with very low turnout levels," Buis Michaux said.

OK, if higher turnout favors Democratic candidates, what makes Oregonians vote at significantly higher rates than people living in the 49 other states?

One answer that gets bandied about is Oregon's vote-by-mail system.

Another possibility is the issues on the ballot itself prompted more people to vote.

Oregon elects its governor during midterm elections, and in 2014 we voted on marijuana, GMO labeling and whether to give driver ID cards to people who couldn't prove a legal presence.

http://www.statesmanjournal.com/story/news/2014/11/06/oregon-get-bluer-nation-got-redder/18625195/
------------------------------------------
Another article says however that 70% turnout is TYPICAL for Vote-By-Mail Oregon, invalidating the marijuana theory.

Statewide voter turnout was typical at 69.5 percent

http://www.oregonlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2014/11/voter_turnout_of_695_percent_i.html

[shenmue]

1. Hats off to Oregon

Smart, decent people.

[Nika]

2. Eugene, Oregon where I live is extremely liberal compared to other places I have lived.

The cannabis industry will be taking off like a skyrocket here now it is legal. Things in this town are going to get a lot more interesting.

[OutNow]

42. I moved to Eugene from Texas 7 years ago

I agree with your post.

[Faux pas]

3. I think we went blue with Obama in 2008

guess we like it.

[Qutzupalotl]

4. I don't know that it invalidates the marijuana theory,

since it's hard to increase turnout more than vote-by-mail already does. 70% is typical for off-year elections here, and we get over 80% in presidential.

It would be good to examine what effect marijuana on the ballot has in states with traditional polling-place voting.

[upaloopa]

5. 60's hippies

[Zorra]

73. And our children. nt

[riversedge]

6. I have close family out there--they LOVE the mail in ballots

so easy, so simple, just do it.

[grahamhgreen]

7. Legalization of cannabis. And Obama scoffed at the idea.

[Gore1FL]

8. The nation isn't redder It's gerrymandered more. n/t

[Raine1967]

16. +1

this is a REALLY big part of all of it.

[99th_Monkey]

9. Vote-by-Mail Baby.

is directly related to near 70% turnout.

From one standpoint, '14 mid-term election was massive mandate for Vote-by-Mail.

Exhibit A: national average turnout was what?
... about 35% I think I saw somewhere, compared to Oregon's 70%??


Then the Sanders' "election holiday' bill would be redundant.

[ErikJ]

10. Maybe somebody should ask him about that on tonight's Maher Show

Last edited Fri Nov 7, 2014, 06:19 PM - Edit history (1)

which is asking for questions via Twitter. He should be advocating for Vote-by-Mail.

[99th_Monkey]

23. I don't tweet

even though the word "bird" is part of my last name.

So please do have at it, if you're on twitter. You never know,
they just might use it.

[Capt.Rocky300]

11. It's still pretty red east of the Cascades isn't it?

[Maedhros]

22. It's becoming a bit less so.

Bend (seat of Deschutes County) is growing really, really fast and is attracting younger and more progressive people.

It also helps that Central Oregon has 26 craft breweries (19 of them in Bend).

[Capt.Rocky300]

44. Black Butte Porter is my favorite.

[Scootaloo]

37. Eastern Washington / Oregon is basically Utah

Red, but mostly dead. They complain a lot about being "dragged along" by us on the coast. But htey don't seem to be in any hurry to give Idaho a population boost

[greg1024]

45. State of Jefferson Red

Back when Northern Cal and Eastern Or was going to make their own state in the late 1930.
There are still business called State of Jefferson this or that.

[BrotherIvan]

15. Agreed. But hippie punchers don't like pot, and they're in power so there is that

What Republicans and David Axelrod understand is RED MEAT for the base. It's really not that hard. Conservatives put guns, abortion and gay marriage bills up during mid terms to get out the base.

And I totally support the mail-in ballots. My supposedly left-leaning employer doesn't really want his employees to vote and insists they can't be late or leave early to vote. When you leave at 7 in the morning and rarely make it home before 8 because of your abominable commute, voting is more difficult. I'm sure it happens everywhere. Sure, it's illegal, but who is willing to lose their job and take their boss to court to go vote for a less than ideal candidate? And since absentee ballots rarely make a difference, most overworked people just give up. Mail in ballots are surely the answer and leave a paper trail. If someone knows how to make it happen in California, let me know as I would like to help.

[winetourdriver]

36. mail in

They do have vote by mail in california, its how I always vote!

[roody]

78. Sign up for permanent absentee voting. Your

ballot will come in the mail.

[BrotherIvan]

79. Thanks, I will

[treestar]

48. Why would that be so important?

Marijuana is still illegal in many states, why would people be more likely to vote because marijuana is legal in their state?

[bravenak]

51. I have watched you, myself and many others repeat this point time and time again.

Why won't anybody take a second to think about it? Young voters want their issues on the ballot. Old voters GET their issues on the ballot THROUGH their politicians. Young voters have to PUT their issues on the ballot through ballot measures and propositions. So young voters only come out for the proposals, NOT the candidates who only speak on issues important to older folks.

[bravenak]

53. No shit!!!

Scared the Republicans might be mean to them.

[treestar]

57. I don't see why it's so important

To how many people is that a big deal?

Not even most young people do pot. I'm OK with it being legal. I just don't see how it can be that damned important.

[Vattel]

66. Great post. I wish Democratic leaders would use similar language in their their speeches.

They should leave out the last part about the West Coast/East Coast divide--too divisive.

[davishenderson265]

17. It's simple. TURN OUT. Republicans love poor turn out.

Kay Hagen lost in NC because of turn out. Tens of millions fewer voters in 14 than in 12.

[dilby]

18. Couple of Factors

Oregon is vote by mail which many have already noted, we had ballot measures that got people out to vote which others have noted and as a population we are continuing to grow and attract people to our state. It should be noted people who move to Oregon do so because of our policies and liberal culture so technically we are stealing liberals from other states. Even people who are forced to move here for work have a tendency to become more liberal because Oregon is such a well oiled machine. People can't deny that liberal policies work when they see the benefit of them every day.

[peoli]

19. Because the forest makes people more intelligent.

[jtuck004]

20. "Statewide this year, more voters showed an interest in marijuana and GMOs than in choosing the next

governor or senator. More than 50,000 Oregonians who voted in Tuesday's election didn't mark a choice for governor, while all but 17,000 marked their choice on Measure 91 marijuana legalization."

From the second link above.

[dilby]

21. There were Dems who were not voting for Kitzhaber

based on some of the problems with our Oregon Health Exchange and some October surprise issues with his fiance but they were not going to vote for the Republican either so they left it blank for Governor.

[grahamhgreen]

24. Precisly. Give people policy positions to vote for and They'll come out for you.

[JohnnyRingo]

25. "All politics is local" -Tip O'Neil.

With the diminished governing efforts of the current US Congress, it's probably more true today.

[KamaAina]

26. 'Cause it has better beer?

[still_one]

27. Actually, California for all the major state offices was quite blue

[Duppers]

28. Isn't Corvallis the LEAST religious city in the country?!

They're an educated electorate.

[seabeyond]

29. pot was on the table and got the people out to vote. nt

[Bluenorthwest]

31. Our turnout was actually pretty typical, if anything slightly down from average...

People vote here largely because there is no 'out to vote' involved, all by mail, easy as pie, and we all like pie. Hey, we also added an Equal Rights Amendment to the State Constitution. More pie!

[Scootaloo]

38. It's the mail-in ballots

Seriously, that part is HUGE. Oregonians don't have to go through the rigamarole of taking time out to go to a polling place, where they might get stuck in line, where the people running the show very well might hassle them about ID's, where the magic Diebold boxes flip their votes, etc.

Seriously, bring elections to people's doors, and even reluctant and recalcitrant voters are likely to fill a ballot.

[shanti]

69. as it was here in california in the 2010 midterms

but it still couldn't get passed. here's hoping that 2016 will finally put it over the top!

[AngryAmish]

30. Federalism and assortive mating.

That is why Oregon works.

[former9thward]

32. Vote by mail does not have much to do with it.

AZ has vote by mail and Rs swept all state wide offices and added to their seats in the legislature. The answer is that people are moving to where they are most comfortable. Part of that is the political climate. That is why the CA that gave us Reagan is now blue. The red states are getting redder and the blue states bluer. The number of purple states is going down.

[Bluenorthwest]

34. AZ has a by mail option. Oregon is all vote by mail, ballot mailed to you if you are registered and

that's that. There are no polling places whatsoever. Makes a big difference. The AZ system is very different from Oregon's. Very.

[former9thward]

35. No its not.

Sitting in OR you may think you know everything about AZ but you don't. 90-95% of people that vote, vote by mail. The polling places have election workers and that is about it. AZ has not gotten rid of polling places because there are still a few people who prefer that option. In AZ any contact you have with government, local or state, you are asked to be put on the permanent mail voting list. Almost every one has.

[JonLP24]

60. How did you come with the 95% figure?

I used to vote by mail but then I moved so I had to look up where to vote and am unfamiliar with how to get on the vote-by-mail list. It was easier to get on it because I was former military.

[former9thward]

62. I am very active poltically in my area.

Last edited Sun Nov 9, 2014, 10:29 AM - Edit history (1)

So I know how many people vote early and how many vote at the polling place. It is a public number reported on election night. But the main point is that anyone who wants to vote by mail in AZ can and it is easily to do. Despite what the OR poster thinks that his is the only state that does it and he thinks by his posts that he knows everything about every other state in the U.S.

[JonLP24]

63. I hope it is as easy since I intend to do so next election

The poster is correct in Oregon being the only all vote-by mail state.

[former9thward]

67. Some people want to vote at the polls.

AZ gives them that option. Some people like to see neighbors and talk about life. Some people are uncomfortable about putting their ballot in the mail system as opposed to a secure ballot box. Some people like to get out of their house instead of being behind a keyboard all day bragging about how their state is the best in everything.

[JonLP24]

68. I've been to Oregon

was stationed at Ft. Lewis. Maybe not everything but those 2 states are better than Arizona in a lot of ways imo.

[former9thward]

71. I grew up in Portland, moved to Chicago after college.

Nothing better than the weather in AZ. Don't miss Portland grey days and rain and sure don't miss Chicago freezing winter and humid summers. Everybody has their own likes and dislikes about the area they are in and that is fine. Don't care for where you are at then move. Some posters love to demonize other states and the people in them, I am not one of them.

[JonLP24]

74. It is much more difficult to simply move

than just stay here.

[Bluenorthwest]

86. Your turnout was 36% and you elected a ton of Republicans. Universal Vote by Mail would

encourage better turnout. It seems like not enough people want to vote at those polls. If they were using those polls that would be one thing. Send them ballots. See what happens.

[former9thward]

88. Turnout was 46%.

There are 200,000 ballots left to count and those will add to that percentage. The percent goes up every day as new ballot numbers are released.

http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/AZ/53314/148787/Web01/en/summary.html

Anyone can have a ballot sent to them who wants it. You want to deny people an option that some want. That is not democracy, its authoritarianism. But, judging from your incessant posts about OR, everything is perfect there. Got it...

[Bluenorthwest]

84. But the All By Mail method is not about the people who vote already

it's about the people who don't vote at all. What was your Turnout? 40%? All by mail would up that turnout. That's what it is about. Think it through.

[Scootaloo]

39. Arizona also had a 36% voter turnout, compared to Oregon's 69%

http://blogforarizona.net/2014-historically-low-voter-turnout-in-arizona/

if, as you say, 95% of them vote by mail... what the hell is going on there?

[former9thward]

41. We have a high number of young people here.

In the town I live in, home to ASU, there are about 80,000 students living here. The average age of the town is 23. The average age of a voter here is 63. What does that tell you? It tells me young people are not interested in voting. Also we have a high Hispanic population. Most of them have no interest in voting. In my neighborhood there are about 150 Hispanic adults, mainly in their 20s. There are 6 whites of which I am one. Guess what the registration figures are? 3. None of the Hispanics are registered. They are not interested.

[Scootaloo]

43. Oregon isn't exactly an AARP convention

Point about the Hispanic people, though - isn't Arizona like ground zero for efforts to disenfranchise them? What percentage aren't eligible to vote anyway?

[Eleanors38]

54. I think you are right about where people are settling...

They could run daily flights between Austin and Eugene and Portland and fill 'em up. I think that in certain states and locales there are efforts at changing things despite the moribund, even hostile, Party structure.

[Bluenorthwest]

33. I came to Oregon a few years ago and I have to say more people pay more attention to voting and

other politics than I have experienced elsewhere. I love Oregon and Oregonians. Vote by mail is the best thing since sliced ballots.

[cascadiance]

46. Interesting coincidence: States with Vote by mail = States with legalized pot!

Washington, Oregon, Colorado all have vote by mail and now have legalized pot!

Alaska has legalized pot too now. Maybe they're next at getting Vote by mail in place? For a large state like that, i bet that would help their voter turnout too!

Pure coincidence, or are there other reasons for these similar circumstances?

[treestar]

47. I've been told on DU for years it is because our candidates are not inspiring enough

and don't give us something to vote FOR.

So what did the Oregon candidates do that was so inspiring?

Second question is how do the poor do any better by not voting? If it is they refusing to vote because we aren't inspiring enough that's just crazy. The young I can see not caring or being too idealistic.

[grasswire]

55. what did Oregon candidates do?

They ran as Democrats, protecting the middle class and workers.

And they weren't afraid to say so.

[JI7]

59. can you give specifics, what did specific candidates say or do which another specific candidate did

not say/do .

[JEB]

83. That is how I see it as well.

[Cleita]

49. Oregon votes by mail, which means their votes are counted. There is a paper trail so it

makes cheating less likely. I'm having a hard time believing that states that voted to legalize MJ, gay marriage and to raise the minimum wage suddenly decided that Tea Party crazies were right for them.

[SomethingFishy]

56. We vote by mail in Colorado too, but we still lost...

However, I do think mail in ballots should be available to anyone who asks, in any state.

[JI7]

61. Why Did Jerry Brown Win Big without Campaigning and Low Voter Turnout ?

[Sirveri]

64. Because the turnout skew favored the SF Bay Area.

The valley stayed home this cycle, while the liberal urban areas saw higher than state average turnouts.

In addition, the GOP invested no energy or money in contesting the seat, all money in state was spent to defeat Prop 45 and 46 and on the Richmond city council race.

[Tommy_Carcetti]

65. To give Oregoneons a smug sense of superiority?

[retread]

70. If true and not just your characterization it's well earned.

[fizzgig]

72. everyone in co got a mail-in ballot this year

52 percent turnout this year compared to 48 in 2010 even though we hit 68 percent during presidential elections. 2012 turnout was higher than 2008, but our marijuana amendment had nothing to do with that. more people voted for president than voted on the amendment.

[cherokeeprogressive]

75. Yet: more than one in three voted against giving DLs to undocumented residents (Measure 88).

Go figure. It failed 67.43% to 32.57%

[JEB]

82. Latent racism

is the only answer I can come up with. I common sense bi-partisan solution to make our roads safer and for immigrants to be able to buy insurance. Not a more obvious measure to pass.

[dballance]

76. As an OR resident I think the vote-by-mail has a lot to do with it.

It seems, generally, that when there is large turnout progressive candidates and ideas win.

In Oregon, vote-by-mail makes it easier to vote. Not at all like all those states that have enacted voter ID laws that are just for voter suppression.

I'm actually ashamed the turnout wasn't higher. It should be. How much more simple can voting be than having the ballot delivered to your mailbox. You don't even have to mail it back. You can drop it off at many ballot boxes.

[roody]

77. Oregon funds public education better than most states.

[summerschild]

80. "Those who cast the votes decide nothing. Those who count the votes decide everything."

Last edited Sun Nov 9, 2014, 05:00 PM - Edit history (1)

Ballots by mail have a lot going for them.

If you haven't read bradblog, you need to.

http://www.bradblog.com/?p=10929

[RiverLover]

85. Troubling info. But thanks for sharing link. ~nt

[Cosmic Kitten]

87. Vote-by-Mail

Vote-by-Mail
Vote-by-Mail
Vote-by-Mail
Vote-by-Mail


This or something like this NEEDS
to be a Democratic Party PRIORITY!

If Democrats want to win elections
make voting simple and accessible to ALL voters!

[ErikJ]

89. I suppose thats why Republicans want to repeal it in Oregon

Vote by Mail increases turnout and higher voting rate hurts them.