Michael McDonald: Charlie Crist is headed for a big win.

[RandySF]

A simple reading of Florida's early vote is that Crist is poised for a big win. In 2010, Gov. Scott squeezed out a +1.1 point win while Republicans enjoyed a +12.7 registration advantage in the early vote. As of Saturday, the Republican advantage stands at +4.1.

There is a an important complication. In 2012, Florida adopted a quasi-permanent absentee status, whereby voters who vote a mail ballot can choose to automatically receive a mail ballot the next election. The Obama campaign, anticipating a reduction of in-person early voting due to a change that year, encouraged their supporters to vote a mail ballot; a good number automatically received a mail ballot in 2014. The consequence of this law is evident in the mail ballots. In 2010, 1,124,431 Floridians cast a mail ballot; in 2014, the number is already 1,733,014. Republicans led mail ballots in 2010 52% to 34%, they lead in 2014 by a narrower 45% to 37%.

In-person early vote is up more modestly, too, 1,184,395 have voted early Saturday with Sunday voting remaining in a few of the larger counties compared with 1,042,759 in 2010. Republicans led the 2010 in-person early vote 45% to 40%, Democrats lead 2014 42% to 41%.

The polls show a narrow lead for Crist over Scott. The outstanding question from the early vote is how many Democrats who voted in 2010 on Election Day have shifted to casting mail ballots in 2014. The in-person early voting, which seems of comparable magnitude, may thus be a better indicator of a Crist lead. I thus believe Crist indeed leads, but would have more confidence in my belief if not for the law change.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/early-voting-pulling-into_b_6091452.html

[DonCoquixote]

1. I will not feel safe

Until Rick Scott is OUT of Tallhassee...The GOp down here are die hard, and think that if they have to cheat, it's what jesus wants.

[Cha]

3. I hear ya..

[DonCoquixote]

4. The gop knows

that they need Florida, which is the reason why they will allow Jeb in. If Rock Scott has the state, it is OVER. That goes double for all of those who want to coronate Hillary.

[yeoman6987]

5. I know a lot in Florida that are Republican

That are voting for Crist because they liked him before. The Republicans really aren't losing Florida either way.

[madville]

11. There will still be a solid Republican legislature

It's pretty much a rubber stamp for them if Scott wins or four years of gridlock with Crist, either way the state loses except we might get some better judges with Crist, depending who is greasing Crist's wheels on the judicial picks these days of course.

[Cha]

2. Tweet pic of Crist today..

Marc Caputo ✔ @MarcACaputo
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After Charlie Crist showed up in North Miami, he was mobbed w/a steady stream of requests for pictures via @CTeproff
12:16 PM - 2 Nov 2014 27 Retweets 12 favorites

http://theobamadiary.com/2014/11/02/the-president-campaigns-in-connecticut/


SEIU Florida @seiufl
Follow
Today in Fort Lauderdale @DWStweets led a Souls to the Polls march so folks could #EarlyVote #TurnOutForWhat
12:23 PM - 2 Nov 2014 50 Retweets 17 favorites

http://theobamadiary.com/2014/11/02/the-president-campaigns-in-connecticut/

Mahalo Randy

[lpbk2713]

6. I will vote for Crist on Tuesday.

If nothing else, I will take satisfaction in knowing I nullified some RWer asshole's vote.

[madfloridian]

7. I already voted, mailed it a while ago.

I am feeling more hopeful than I was.

[lpbk2713]

8. I just never felt comfortable about voting by mail.

I know it's a remote possibility but I thought it could be possible for a
vote from a registered Dem or a vote for the wrong candidate could
get "lost in the mail". I didn't see the need to vote early either.

[Baitball Blogger]

9. Let's hope they haven't figured out how to swap ballots.

The absentee ballots from my county came in with the same handwritten number that I got in the last election.

[Voice for Peace]

10. I heard him say in one of the debates that he left the Republican party

because it was so blatantly racist toward the President.

He seemed proud to be associated with Obama unlike
many others.

[Gloria]

12. I sure hope this is true..

With all the other crap going on in other tight races, this may be our only ray of hope...
Here in NM, the Koch money is going full swing.
The national Democrats put zip into the governor's race! There was plenty to go after Martinez on, plenty.

Tonight, I got a sad robocall from Bill Clinton...big deal!

A few days ago I got a LIVE person launching into a spiel for Martinez...I promptly say NO, "I won't vote for her, she's Texan-izing
NM!"
It's true. Bush people put her in the first time, including the Education Secretary who has never been confirmed but still is handing down Bush policies. I'm totally disgusted by the lack of support from Democratic money....King has largely funded his own campaign, and has been outspent 7 to 1!!! No ads on TV, no mailers..NADA...

NM tends to be a blue state...but I'm afraid it will go red! The legislative races are really critical...the GOP only need a few seats to take over....