WI Recall: Walker leads likely rivals by 5-7 points, Obama leads Romney by 6 in state

[WI_DEM]

Tom Barrett (D): 45 (49)
Scott Walker (R-inc): 50 (46)
Hari Trivedi (I): 2
Undecided: 3 (3)
Kathleen Falk (D): 43 (48)
Scott Walker (R-inc): 50 (47)
Hari Trivedi (I): 3
Undecided: 3 (5)

Doug La Follette (D): 40 (45)
Scott Walker (R-inc): 51 (46)
Hari Trivedi (I): 3
Undecided: 6 (9)

Kathleen Vinehout (D): 38 (44)
Scott Walker (R-inc): 50 (46)
Hari Trivedi (I): 5
Undecided: 7 (10)

These numbers show a drop for Democrats from PPP's last survey of the race, which of course makes you ask, why? What's changed? Our pollster, Tom Jensen, offers his thoughts:

The biggest change is probably that this was our first time using a likely voter screen, We found with almost all of the recall elections last summer that the electorate just wasn't as Democratic as 2008, even if people were at least more excited about the recalls than they were about the 2010 elections. Gov. Scott Walker gains a few points as a result of that.
The other thing is that independents have flipped from our last poll

Indeed, Obama's 53-39 lead over Romney in February is now a much closer 50-44 in this poll. Screening this poll for likely voters (as opposed to just registered voters) has had one other notable effect: Walker's job approval has ticked up, from 47-52 to 51-48. But it's had an even bigger effect on Barrett's favorables, which went from 41-33 to 41-45, a fall of 12 points. Former Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk saw a much smaller net drop of 5, going from 31-42 to 36-52. Barrett's been the target of some tough attacks both from certain unions (which are backing Kane) as well as Walker, who has aired ads going after both leading Democrats, but apparently has made Barrett his focus

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/04/16/1083758/-WI-Gov-Scott-Walker-takes-leads-but-sits-right-at-the-50-mark?detail=hide

[WI_DEM]

1. One problem is that Dems have a four-way primary and so there is not one single voice up against

Walker--one on one, they are worried about just winning the primary. Second, none of the challengers who emerged against Walker are really all that exciting or strong or even new. Barrett lost to Walker last time. Falk has lost two statewide races. LaFollette is in his 70's and yes has won several times as secretary of state but is not really thought of as a strong challenger.

It's actually a shame we didn't get Feingold or even Kohl up against Walker or else some younger, stronger democrat.

Hopefully after the primary it will get closer but that will be a very short campaign before the vote in June.

[RBInMaine]

5. They have got to UNITE BIGTIME around the Dem nominee and put THOUSANDS of boots on the ground.

[WI_DEM]

7. We are and will. But thanks for the advice.

[Bandit]

11. You guys are the bellweather for the nation

How Wisconsin goes will be a great indicater of how the rest of the country will go for Congress anyway and quite probably even the Presidency... If Republicans can continue to control government there they will not only continue to control government in America but increase that control.. So all eyes will be on Wisconsin in June....Your election is crucial to whether America will survive as a Democracy or submit to complete facism... I base my assumptions on how the people there have been so public about their displeasure.. I know of no where else in the nation that has had so many turn out to protest what the Republicans are about....If you guys can't do it then it just can't be done...ANYWHERE

[FarLeftFist]

2. Ironically, due to Pres.Obama the economy is getting better & ppl of WI may be crediting Walker

Although Walker has done nothing to make WI economy better, he's just riding on Obama's coattails.

[WI_DEM]

4. Actually WI lags behind most states in job creation and Under Walker we have actually lost jobs

the economy and jobs here in WI is still a big issue compared to surrounding midwestern states.

[FarLeftFist]

8. The Dems really need to drill home the point that no ones job is safe under Walker.

It really is a shame that Feingold isn't running.

[RBInMaine]

3. If Wisconsinites keep this corrupt asshole Walker in office, they deserve every turd he feeds them.

[WI_DEM]

6. Oh Please! We have done much more than any other state this last year to awaken this country

and have recalled two State Senators and forced this governor into a recall election. Too bad some progressive champion like Feingold who could have easily have won decided he didn't want to take on this race. Recalls are not easy to win. While we won two last year we also lost four for the state Senate. Plus Walker has unlimited money.

What are you doing in Maine?

[leftyohiolib]

9. no offense to your effort but all the work you DID is useless if walker is re-elected

it would be such a shame but i agree if after all that's be exposed about s.w.by your effort he's re-elected then wi's people deserve what they get.

[RBInMaine]

14. I'm not dissing those working on the campaign. I'm dissing Indies who'd even think about voting for

that asshole because it is THEY who will determine this election. Also, no excuses to any registered Dem who fails to vote. I can't believe any moderate Indies or even honest moderate R's would even think about voting for that scumbag. And I couldn't imagine anyone staying home.

I do applaud your effort very much.

And I have donated to your recall effort multiple times by the way, and in Feb. 2011 I sent pizza to your protesters at least twice.

And what am I doing in Maine you ask?
As the vice chair of my Dem city committee I am working overtime to throw every rotten RePUKE we possibly can out of office come
November. I also was my local coordinator for last November's repeal referendum on the RePUKE law to end our same-day voter registration rights. We WON that vote BIGTIME, to the point where the Pukes didn't even dare to bring up voter-ID. I have been on the ground hard here the last eight years working like hell to defeat Republicans.

[summerschild]

10. I AM SO PROUD OF THE PEOPLE OF WISCONSIN

and so hopeful for them. They have been an inspiration to all of us out here feeling frustrated (and often helpless) in the face of all the big money generated by Citizens United to destroy the value of our vote. I've got little money but I've sent several small donations and decided to send the biggest I could muster last week hoping to get it in their hands in time to help with the recall election. It's still not a lot (the widow's mite) but I pray it helps the Wisconsin people.

Is it true they lost support of the police and firefighters union? If true, that's so sad. He will only use them and turn around and abuse them.

I hope they break out the Walker/"Koch" phone call and remind voters how dishonest Walker is.

He just MUST be recalled.

[AtomicKitten]

12. WI Dems are being hamstrung by their own primary process.

Walker is hammering Barrett mercilessly while Dems are sorting out their nominee - who most likely will be Barrett.

[RBInMaine]

15. They need to be hammering Walker in a big way.

[Robbins]

13. Poll problem

Pollsters are assuming Republicans are more likely to vote than Democrats.Some are even using the 2010 models(Gallup)

this Is explanation to how Walker goes from being slightly behind to 5 or more points ahead.